I love this time of year.  Being a horror movie fan, October never disappoints.  If you’re a DirecTV subscriber like myself, no doubt you’ve checked out their Horror-thon on channel 101.  Or AMC’s annual Monster Fest.  Or the billions and billions of horror films shown on any of the pay cable channels.

Guess what movie you should think about drafting in your Moguls 2007 game?  Yes, an opening weekend of $34 million guarantees Horror fans the premiere of Saw 4 next Halloween.  And nobody could blame you for wanting to own it.  Defying the recent trend of Horror fatigue, the annual domination of this clever series featuring the mastermind of torture, Jigsaw, continues to show its teeth.  Get it?  Teeth.  Like teeth from a saw blade…okay, it’s been a rough weekend so I’ll refrain from further comedy.

Once a film is set for release, it’s “stock” can rise or fall based on many factors. Among them, changes in release date or pattern, key reviews, industry tracking figures or just plain old industry buzz. Here are this week’s movers.

STOCK RISING

THE GOOD GERMAN (Warner Bros.) – 12/8 limited
One of the reasons for my hesitation about this picture had been Warner Bros. long slump and that WB executives have always seemed to be higher on The Departed. Now I understand why they have always spoken so highly about the Scorsese film. It’s a masterpiece. Most 2006 films pale in comparison. That being said, the Steven Soderbergh-directed The Good German looks incredibly stylish in trailers. In black and white, with George Clooney and Cate Blanchett looking like old-time movie stars, it harkens back to Casablanca. In fact, look at the poster for The Good German, which is clearly either an homage or a ripoff of the one sheet for the 1942 classic. As this picture expands over the holidays, I think it will be the adult movie of the season. It will never win any individual weekend at the box office, but it has a chance to get you some great PTA numbers in December and as many as 3 Top 5 box office finishes in January with excellent reviews. It should be a great get in both Box Office Moguls and Ultimate Moguls.

“No ideas but in things.”
--William Carlos Williams

“The world is everything that is the case.”
--Ludwig Wittgenstein

“Why is a tree more beautiful than a babbling brook?  Or anything that babbles for that matter?”
--Woody Allen

Years ago, just before the release of Stephen Frears’s first big Hollywood feature The Grifters, the director of the then-celebrated My Beautiful Laundrette, and the now-celebrated The Queen, came to UCLA to give a talk.  The first question was:  “How do you pick your scripts?  And then how do you work with them?”  Frears answered, “I’m illiterate.”  He refused to elaborate.  I think I finally understand what he meant.  Bear with me.

It’s opening weekend. It’s opening weekend for the holiday movie season, it’s opening weekend for your studios and it’s opening weekend for FantasyMoguls.com.

“How long is this guy staying in the Hamptons?” some are wondering. “Didn’t the festival end last weekend?” more ask. “Who the hell does he think he is?” others are saying. Well, we just returned to the City of Angels and I can report to learning several things:

There is nothing like opening weekend. This is it. The first weekend of the Holiday season! The first chance to see how your picks stack up against your competitors. Are you arranging premiere parties? Are you inviting your friends to your "screenings?" Are you buying a ticket for a film you own at the mutiplex, and then sneaking into your competitor's film?

Then you, my friend, are a Fantasy Moguls player!

We only have a few questions, so let's get to them, then get to the movies...

In the last 3 weeks, I’ve written about “horror fatigue” in the marketplace, and I strongly believe that is one of the reasons that Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning (New Line) and The Grudge 2 (Sony) have both scored lower-than-expected box office figures. This weekend, Saw III (Lions Gate) hits the multiplex and the question is whether Jigsaw will fall prey to the same lack of enthusiasm.

With the official start of Fantasy Moguls a mere two days away, most of you have probably had your draft and already might be panicking about your slate.  The best advice I can give you is to be patient as none of your films have bombed yet, so you don’t really know where you stand in relation to your competition. 

In the last two weeks, basic cable has done the impossible – nay, the unthinkable.  In the span of two weeks, we’ve seen not one but two awards shows dedicated to horror movies.  In the immortal words of our fearless leader – “Mission accomplished.”