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Advice & Analysis: Weekly Tracking

Advice & Analysis: Reviews

November 12, 2006

From the Agency Mailroom: A Slow Week

by Thomas Donnelly

Everybody must be busy laughing at our favorite Khazak reporter, only a couple questions in this week's mailbag. Let's get to them:

Borat ROCKED on only 800 screens, pulling in the top spot in both top 5 and the PTA, and people are saying it may be number one again this weekend. Are more films going to be opened this way? - Brad from Tempe, AZ

Borat did shine, and having seen the movie it is no surprise why. The movie is shockingly funny. But will the old platform strategy experience a return based on the movie's success? I would not count on it. Here's why. Borat's opening strategy was based on a totally botched tracking report. Tracking, for all the studios rely on it, is horribly UNreliable. In my opinion, it is people trying to put math to buzz, and that is something that often just doesn't fit neatly into an excel spreadsheet.

Yes, the movie did well. Yes, it likely will again. But that's not the question the studios are asking. What the studios are asking is how much would it have made if it opened on 2500+ screens in the first place. The thought is this: how many people who were turned away last weekend won't be coming back? And how many of those people would have spread the positive buzz much farther had they gotten in and seen the pic?

Monday morning quarterbacking? Surely, but that's the biz. The fact is, if Borat does not continue to outperform a lot of Hollywood will be wondering how much money was left of the table from a potential blockbuster opening.

I was offered a trade of Dreamgirls for A Night At the Museum. My first instict was to pass but this weekend I saw a trailer for A Night At the Museum. Blech! Should I make the trade? - Rachel in Rock Island, IL

Hey, Rachel, I have to confess, I too saw the Museum trailer and was...underwhelmed. It just doesn't seem as funny or fresh as I had hoped. BUT you must realize that this film is targeted as family-friendly fare, and as such it does not matter so much whether you or I think it looks fun. It matters what the neighbor's 12-year-old thinks. I look at that trailer and I think of a film several years ago: Patch Addams. Weak trailer. Kinda schticky. Big, big box office despite poor reviews. Museum seems to me like this year's Patch Addams. A movie the crowds like more than the reviewers or movie buffs. And that would be that, if it wasn't for the fact that I think Dreamgirls has a chance to be a breakout hit as well. IF, and it is a big if, it can draw the two underserved audiences it is aiming for: African-Americans and older Americans. Musicals in the holiday season have a good history with the latter, the starpower favors the former. Get both audiences and you could really see some great box office. Reviews, I feel, are almost a lock to be good. So, in summary, I feel that with Museum you have a slightly better chance at big box office, but Dreamgirls could match that possibly, and will likely garner better reviews. So your decision should rest of the remainder of your slate. Do you have a lot of prestige films or blockbusters? That will tell you whether or not to pull the trigger on a trade. Best of luck.

Thomas Dean Donnelly was voted the Most Hygienic Left-Hander in the WGA, narrowly beating out Aaron Sorkin. He was also runner up in the Best Baritone and Least-Likely-To-Vomit-From-Liquor categories. You should check out the WGA awards sometime. They're quite comprehensive. You can email your questions to Thomas@fantasymoguls.com

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Posted at 08:41 AM in Advice and Analysis, From the Agency Mailroom, Thomas Donnelly | Permalink

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