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Advice & Analysis: Reviews

November 03, 2006

From the Agency Mailroom: Santa, the Rat, and the Anti-Semite

by Thomas Donnelly

Big weekend coming up! Three films with a lot of weight behind them. The game is heating up quickly. Let's get to the questions:

I picked up Saw III and I was psyched to see a strong first place finish. What do you think it will do this weekend? - Jim in Palo Alto, CA

Saw certainly did open strong. It has been a perennial Halloween hit and one of the more original horror series in a long time. That said, horror films tend to have a very abbreviated release. It is very typical for a horror film to lose close to half its audience in the second weekend, sometimes even more.

Couple that with three strong films opening and I think you can count on a maximum 50% "hold." Meaning take last weekend's numbers and cut them right in half. It could be worse, but I would bet that only Borat is truly aimed at the same audience as Saw, so it will not do much worse than 50%.

What will 50% get you? It could very well come in 3rd this weekend, and it is a near lock for 4th.

I have Santa Clause III and I see that it is getting killed in the reviews. Another studio in my game has Stranger than Fiction, which looks awesome, and he's willing to trade it to me for Night At The Museum. Should I make the trade? - Allan in St. Louis, MO

First, congrats on snagging both Santa Clause and Night at the Museum. Both films have solid box office prospects. However, as I think you are seeing, both are questionable as far as review average goes. So that brings us to the question: when is it permissible to trade for review?

The answer is: if the films otherwise are close to equal. The reason: review is such a hard category to figure out. I used to go to the Sundance Film Festival yearly and I had the opportunity to get an advanced look at a huge number of amazing independent films. Some of them have become among my favorites of all time. And yet, when the films received theatrical releases, I was amazed at some of the reviews they received. Blair Witch, Run Lola Run, In The Company of Men...unique films with unique points of view. Films you can't take your eyes off. And some of them were panned. Others received only lukewarm responses. The fact is, it is the hardest category to predict so be careful before you chase it.

Stranger than Fiction looks good, you are right, but I fear that it is being misleadingly marketed. On purpose. It is not a Will Ferrell Comedy. It is a comedic drama where Ferrell plays the straight man for the most part. Whether audiences will accept that actor in that role is an open question. Will this be Jim Carrey in The Truman Show, or Jim Carrey in The Majestic? There is no way to know.

But Night at the Museum is a pretty known quantity. It will open. It will likely open big. It has nearly no competition on its release date, and nothing coming up in the weeks that follow. Stick with it. If you want to bolster your review average target smaller indie and foreign films with good prospects and pick them up or trade your smaller performers for them.

Hey man, the game is great. There's at least one league centered around Entertainment Tonight employees, and next season I want to get more involved. I think your game is going to explode next season, especially with industry folks. One question, though: is there a way to set-up a draft queue so I would not have to be present at the draft? Other fantasy sports games let you order your automated picks in case you don't show. - Ben in L.A.

Hey Ben, thanks for the kind words. Great to hear you E.T. folks are joining in. Should be a competitive league. As far as a draft queue option, you read our minds. It is definitely something we are working on here and plan on having it as a tool for everyone to use in the near future.

That's it for today. Keep the questions coming, and best of luck to you all. If you are going to see Borat in LA this weekend, I will be at the Grove at the 9:15 show. Just stand up and yell "Moguls" and I'll come say hi. Either that or it will introduce you to some beefy men with sticks.

Thomas Dean Donnelly was voted the Most Hygienic Left-Hander in the WGA, narrowly beating out Aaron Sorkin. He was also runner up in the Best Baritone and Least-Likely-To-Vomit-From-Liquor categories. You should check out the WGA awards sometime. They're quite comprehensive. You can email your questions to Thomas@fantasymoguls.com

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Posted at 04:25 PM in Advice and Analysis, From the Agency Mailroom, Thomas Donnelly | Permalink

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