Cohen has been making the publicity rounds with stops everywhere from Saturday Night Live (the coveted pre-credit opening sketch) to The Today Show (where a visibly uncomfortable Matt Lauer did his best to keep Borat on safe topics). It’s impossible to say what happens when Borat goes wide, but this weekend, the film will deliver a terrific per theatre average.

A sensation on British television, Cohen has had relatively little exposure in the US.  13 episodes of his Ali G series have aired on HBO (repeatedly), his voice was featured in the animated hit Madagascar, and he most recently had a hilarious co-starring role in Talladega Nights. (My husband Gregory and I want what any couple wants. To retire to Stockholm and develop a currency for dogs and cats to use.)

Borat isn’t for anyone with thin skin. He offends everyone – women, Jews, gays, rednecks and, of course, Kasakhs.  Cohen’s shooting of the pseudo doc has also left a trail of “victims” in his wake. Today, Fox News Channel reports the story of a Jackson, Mississippi noon news producer who booked Borat as a guest. The politically incorrect comic guested on the live show and proceeded to wreak havoc as he made sexual and scatological references, kissed the lead anchor and disrupted the weather report. The naïve producer, Dharma Arthur, was fired for naivete.

Nobody is more offended by Borat than the government of Kazakhastan. In fact, they are placing print and television ads that, they claim, accurately depict their Central Asian nation as a modern and progressive country. The ads are supposed to counter the movie’s claims that the country sponsors anti-Jewish street fests, there are laws against women riding the bus, that horse urine is guzzled from goblets and that any Kazakh would kiss his sister with the passion that Borat does. (It should be noted that the national dish in Kazakastan is beshbarmak, which is boiled noodles topped with horsemeat.)

Movies based on television characters have run the gamut from wild successes, like The Fugitive, Mission Impossible, Scooby Doo and Charlie’s Angels, to disastrous failures, like It’s Pat and Stuart Saves His Family (both based on fairly lame Saturday Night Live sketches), but, the reviews for Borat have been spectacular. In fact, as of the writing of this column, Borat has an incredible 100% positive review score at RottenTomatoes.com.

Big city folks get the point. We are laughing at this anti-Semitic, homophobic, misogynistic boob. At RogerEbert.com, the review for Borat says the film “will be funny for at least as long as anybody remembers there were, and are, bigots anywhere in this world.” I have no idea how this picture will perform when it expands, but I’m looking for $13,000-$15,000 per location this weekend for $10-$12 million.

Borat By The Numbers

All-Time Top 20 Movies Based On TV Characters* – Domestic Box Office

1. The Fugitive - $183,875,000

2. Mission Impossible - $180,981,000

3. Scooby Doo - $153,294,000

4. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $135,265,000

5. The Flintstones - $130,531,000

6. Charlie’s Angels - $125,305,000

7. Wayne’s World - $121,697,000

8. S.W.A.T. - $116,934,000

9. Wild, Wild West - $113,805,000

10. Addams Family - $113,502,000

11. Maverick - $101,631,000

12. The Rugrats Movie - $100,494,000

13. The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie - $85,417,000

14. The X-Files - $83,898,000

15. Star Trek: The Motion Picture - $82,258,000

16. The Dukes of Hazzard - $80,270,000

17. Naked Gun: From the Files of Police Squad - $78,756,000

18. The Untouchables - $76,270,000

19. Lost In Space - $69,117,000

20. Jackass: The Movie - $64,255,000

*First films only. No sequels.

All-Time Top 5 Disastrous Movies Based on TV Shows – Domestic Box Office

1. Jiminy Glick in Lalawood - $36,039

2. It’s Pat - $60,822

3. Stuart Saves His Family - $912,082

4. Mystery Science Theatre 3000: The Movie - $1,007,000

5. Car 54, Where Are You? - $1,238,000

The industry tracking is undeniably soft for Flushed Away (Dreamworks), the new animated film from Aardman Features (Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit). In fact, I’m told that Flushed Away’s First Choice rating is 1/2 that of The Santa Clause 3.

There is always “hidden demand” for animated movies because nobody surveys the 12-and-under set. Also, this is a very good film, which may give it “legs”.  Unlike some of this year’s previous animated fair, this is one that parents can enjoy as much as their kids.

The film’s opening weekend will be hurt by The Santa Clause 3 which is tracking like a monster, but I suspect Flushed Away can do $50-$60 million in its domestic run. Look for $13-$16 million on opening weekend.

Flushed Away By The Numbers

Top 10 Animated Films of 2006 - Domestic Box Office

1. Cars – $244,082,000

2. Ice Age: The Meltdown – $195,330,000

3. Over the Hedge – $155,019.000

4. Monster House (still in release) – $73,661,000

5. Barnyard: The Original Party Animals (still in release) - $72,609,000

6. Curious George - $58,360,000

7. Hoodwinked - $51,386,000

8. The Wild - $37,384,000

9. The Ant Bully - $27,533,000

10. Doogal - $7,417,000

Top 5 Opening Weekends for Animated Films in 2006 – Domestic Box Office

1. 3/31 - Ice Age: The Meltdown - $68,033,000

2. 6/9 – Cars - $60,119,000

3. 5/19 – Over the Hedge - $38,457,000

4. 7/21 – Monster House - $22,217,000

5. 8/4 – Barnyard: The Original Party Animals - $15,820,000

Top 5 Hugh Jackman Films - Domestic Box Office

1. X-Men: The Last Stand - $234,362,000

2. X2: X-Men United - $214,949,000

3. X-Men - $157,299,000

4. Van Helsing - $120,177,000

5. Swordfish - $69,772,000

Top 5 Kate Winslet Films - Domestic Box Office

1. Titanic - $600,788,000

2. Sense & Sensibility - $43,182,000

3. Finding Neverland - $51,680,000

4. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind - $34,400,000

5. The Life of David Gale - $19,955,00

All-Time Top 5 Animated Films From Dreamworks - Domestic Box Office

1. Shrek 2 - $441,226,000

2. Shrek - $267,665,000

3. Madagascar - $193,595,000

4. Shark Tale - $160,861,000

5. Over the Hedge - $155,019,000

All-Time Top 5 Animated Films - Domestic Box Office

1. Shrek 2 - $441,226,000

2. Finding Nemo - $339.714,000

3. The Lion King - $328,541,000

4. Shrek - $267,665,000

5. The Incredibles - $261,441,000

The Santa Clause 3 (Buena Vista), starring Tim Allen, Martin Short, Ann-Margret and Judge Reinhold, will easily win the weekend to kick off the holiday blockbuster season with a bang. Virtually nobody has seen this film, so there’s no telling how good (or bad) it might be, but it’s going to open big.

What’s interesting about the tracking is that its 2 strongest quadrants are Men 25 Plus and Women 25 Plus. That tells me that there is some nostalgia here. The first movie in the series opened in 1994 and generated $144 million domestic. A fair number of the people who made the movie a hit 12 years ago will be able to take their kids to see it this weekend. There are even parents who brought their kids to see it in ’94 who will take their grandkids to the multiplex Saturday.

Word is that The Santa Clause 3 isn’t very good. Tim Allen could use a hit after the modest failure of the spring release The Shaggy Dog ($61million) and Zoom ($11 million), which bombed this summer. Although I love Martin Short, he has only translated on the big screen as that over-the-top wedding planner in the Father of the Bride movies. And, with Michael Lembeck directing, it is likely to have a TV-feel. He directed The Santa Clause 2, but he is best known for his work on multiple episodes of TV shows like Major Dad, Friends, Coach, Everybody Loves Raymond and Veronica’s Closet.

The reviews may be soft, it may feel like a high-concept sitcom, its stars may have a spotty box office track record, but America wants to see this movie, and it will ring-up box office register to the tune of $25-$28 million this weekend.

The Santa Clause 3 By The Numbers

Top 5 Tim Allen Films - Domestic Box Office

1. Toy Story 2 - $245,852,000

2. Toy Story - $191,796,000

3. The Santa Clause - $144,833,000

4. The Santa Clause 2 - $139,236,000

5. Christmas with the Kranks - $73,780,000

Top 5 Martin Short Films - Domestic Box Office

1. The Prince of Egypt - $101,413,000

2. Father of the Bride - $89,325,000

3. Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius - $80,936,000

4. Father of the Bride Part II - $76,594,000

5. Jungle 2 Jungle - $59,927,000

Top 5 Ann-Margret Films - Domestic Box Office

1. The Break-Up - $118,703,000

2. Any Given Sunday - $75,530,000

3. Grumpier Old Men - $71,518,000

4. Grumpy Old Men - $70,172,000

5. Tommy - $34,251,000

Top 5 Judge Reinhold Films - Domestic Box Office

1. Beverly Hills Cop - $234,760,000

2. Beverly Hills Cop II - $153,665,000

3. Gremlins $148,168,000

4. Stripes - $85,297,000

5. Ruthless People - $71,624,000

All-Time Top 5 Christmas Movies – Domestic Box Office

1. How the Grich Stole Christmas - $260,044,000

2. The Polar Express - $173,675,000

3. Elf - $173,398,000

4. The Santa Clause - $144,833,000

5. The Santa Clause 2 - $139,236,000

Here are the weekend box office projections from your humble columnist and independent theatre owner:

1. The Santa Clause 3 - $27 million
2. Saw III - $16 million
3. Flushed Away - $14 million
4. Borat - $12 million
5. The Departed - $7 million

Steve Mason can be reached at Steve@fantasymoguls.com.