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Advice & Analysis: Reviews

November 27, 2006

WEEKEND ROUND-UP: Penguins and Bond Rule the Roost

by Howard Roark

Happyfeet_poster_1 Ho-Hum. Staying very strong atop the box office this week are Happy Feet and Casino Royale. Finishing 1-2 for the second weekend in a row, both films show little erosion from their opening numbers for the three-day weekend -- especially when you figure in the elevated Wednesday-Thursday-Friday figures because of the Thanksgiving Holiday. Happy Feet has proven to be THE family film to own in the regular Moguls game having just about reached the $100 million plateau after just 10 days in release. 

With Arthur and the Invisibles (an excellent trailer by the way) and Charlotte's Web not due out until Dec. 15, Happy Feet has the family marketplace all to itself for another couple of weeks and will continue to rack up box-office dollars and, for Ultimate Moguls players, Top 5 points. And, speaking of films that could appeal to families, it will certainly be interesting to see if New Line Cinema is able to corral even a fraction of the audience uncovered by The Passion of the Christ for The Nativity Story this weekend (and whether or not a big boost from moviegoing Christians will be enough to dethrone the pesky penguins).

Meanwhile, Casino Royale is a huge hit, with many predicting it will become the biggest Bond ever. (Although that's of little consolation to Ultimate Moguls owners who have thus far had to be content with accruing only second-place Top 5 points -- 8 points in all). Casino most certainly cut into Deja Vu’s numbers, as Denzel's newest accrued an OK $20 million for the three-day weekend, and nearly $30 million over the five-day period. Disney is spinning that it is Denzel Washington's 7th film to debut at over $20 million, but they were certainly disappointed there wasn't a "3" in their opening tally (forgive the lingo, but this means they were hoping for $30 million-plus, if not more).  From an Ultimate Moguls perspective, you draft a film like this intending on a better than third-place finish, so, all in all, Deja Vu is a disappointment -- unless you stole it in the last round of your draft.

As predicted by myself and our own Steve Mason, Jack Black's ego vehicle, Tenacious D: In the Pick of Destiny flopped like Mr. Black's stage dive in the opening of School of Rock. There's no way around the bloodletting that is a $3 million opening and 11th place finish. Also, despite great reviews, strong word-of-mouth, a cavalcade of stars and the subject matter of one of America’s most beloved political figures, audiences just couldn't get past the fact that Kirby Keger himself, Emilio Estevez, director of such luminary work as Men At Work, Wisdom and the War at Home, was behind the MGM/Weinstein Company release of Bobby.  Adding insult to injury is the non-Ultimate Moguls friendly release pattern chosen by the studio -- two theaters on its first weekend (which resulted in a UM-weighted fourth place finish), and 1,600-plus theaters in its second. With miniscule PTA points and no Top 5, Bobby becomes little more than slate-filler on anybody's list.

Rounding out the Top 5 are the new Fox family release Deck the Halls, which performed as expected with a soft $12 million opening (good enough for fourth place); and the little-lawsuit-that-could, Borat, whose additional $10 million assures that at least four more claims of fraud are forthcoming. Incidentally, in case you are unaware, every successful film becomes the subject of lawsuits. EVERY. SINGLE. ONE.  I guarantee that Fox's lawyers -- who are considered so anal as to be draconian, even by industry standards -- drew up a release form for all participants in Borat that is so ironclad that nobody at Fox is concerned. Perhaps Fox will pay these nuisance suits a pittance to go away, but there is no way they see the inside of a courtroom. I highly doubt the frat boys want their racist-tinged scenes to be played for a jury on cross-examination.

On the PTA front, Volver continues to perform admirably, becoming the biggest PTA earner of Pedro Almodovar's career. While I highly doubt the fantastic director of All About My Mother and Talk to Her has thought much about his PTA numbers, we here at Fantasy Moguls have, and he has never before earned double-digits.

Hindi-flick Dhoom 2 shot to second place with a stunning $15,000-plus per theater. Personally, I thought Dhoom 1 was overbearing and derivative of Godard, but apparently specialty audiences couldn't get enough of the Yash Raj release. Quite honestly, films that play to this specific of an audience are impossible to track, so it is incredibly difficult for us to tip you to them.  As we continue to evolve our Web site and our game for you, we will look into servicing this marketplace. If it helps, I can tell you that Van Wilder: The Rise of Taj will bomb this weekend.  The History Boys found a strong hold on third place with a Moguls–weighted $10,000 per screen, while Happy Feet and Casino Royale round out the leader board in the PTA category.

Despite the fact that Howard Roark has been negligent in responding to your emails due to a variety of reasons, he still asks that you limit the number of curse words per paragraph when you write him at Howard@fantasymoguls.com.

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