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December 14, 2006

Golden Globe Winners ... And Losers

by Steve Mason

The Oscar race took shape as the Golden Globe nominations were announced early this morning at the Beverly Hilton, and there are some surprises. The nominations are also filled with implications for Moguls Box Office and Ultimate Moguls players.

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu's Babel (Paramount Vantage) scored the most nominations with 7, including Best Picture (Drama), Best Director, Best Screenplay: Guillermo Arriaga, Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt, Best Supporting Actress: Rinko Kikuchi, Best Supporting Actress: Adriana Barraza and Best Score: Gustavo Santaolalla. The Departed (Warner Bros.) was next with 6 nominations, followed by Dreamgirls (Paramount/Dreamworks) with 5 and The Queen (Miramax) with 4.

Among the surprises is Bobby (MGM/Weinstein) which snuck into the Best Picture (Drama) category. This will give the Emilio Estevez ensemble film a huge boost. To date, it has generated just under $11 million in domestic box office, but the Weinsteins may be able to leverage this nomination into another $10-$15 million. Also coming from out of the blue, although I love the movie, is Maggie Gyllenhaal who receives a Best Actress (Drama) nomination for her work in Sherrybaby (IFC Films). This gritty little drama about a woman who tries to put her life back together and stay off drugs after being paroled, received a limited release earlier this fall generating just $200,000, but now, this movie will be seen and could score a couple of million.

The very best category at this year's Globes will be Best Foreign Language Film. Letters From Iwo Jima (Paramount/Warner Bros.) and Apocalypto (Buena Vista) were only eligible in the Foreign Language category (at the Oscars, they are not eligible for Best Foreign Language Film because they were not submitted by foreign countries). Eastwood and Gibson will do battle with Volver (Sony Classics), Pan's Labrynth (Picturehouse) and the well-received German film The Lives of Others (Sony Classics). My hunch is that this race boils down to Letters and Volver.

Today's nominations effectively kill chances for major success for a number of films. The Painted Veil (Warner Independent) received only a Best Score nom and now has limited upside. The Good German (Warner Bros), Half Nelson (ThinkFilm), United 93 (Universal), The Good Shepherd (Universal), The Children of Men (Universal) and World Trade Center (Paramount) were all shut out.

Notable snubs in the acting categories include Ken Watanabe for Letters From Iwo Jima, Ryan Gosling and Shareeka Epps for Half Nelson, Catherine O'Hara in For Your Consideration (Warner Independent), Edward Norton for either The Painted Veil (Warner Independent) or The Illusionist (Yari Film Group), Matt Damon for either The Departed or The Good Shepherd, Derek Luke for Catch A Fire (Focus), Adam Beach in Flags of Our Fathers (Paramount/Warner Bros.), Alan Arkin, Abigail Breslin, Steve Carell and Greg Kinnear all from Little Miss Sunshine (Fox Searchlight), Djimon Hounsou for Blood Diamond (Warner Bros.), Jackie Earle Haley for Little Children (New Line) and Michael Sheen for The Queen all missed out on nominations. It will now be difficult for them to climb into the Academy Award race.

Here are the nominations for the 74th Annual Golden Globe Awards along with implications for Moguls Box Office and Ultimate Moguls players:

BEST MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA)

BABEL (Paramount Vantage)

BOBBY (MGM/Weinstein Company)

THE DEPARTED (Warner Bros.)

LITTLE CHILDREN (New Line)

THE QUEEN (Miramax)

Fantasy Moguls Lowdown: Bobby, Babel and Little Children stand to gain the most in terms of domestic box office. Babel is at $18 million now, and I say it could hit $45 million by the time the Oscars are handed out.

The Good German, starring George Clooney, is irreparably hurt by its Globes shutout. The film has received very lukewarm reviews from critics, and this black-and-white, noirish Casablanca homage almost requires awards attention to break through in the marketplace. Because of the slow platform release, it remains a decent Ultimate Moguls play, but it will not score at the box office for you.

The Painted Veil is a slightly better Ultimate Moguls play because it has garnered some awards attention, but don't look for more than $10-$15 million in box office.

This effectively kills Warner Bros.'s efforts to save Blood Diamond. It will not recover from its awful first week without a nomination in the Best Picture (Drama) category.

Strange that Eastwood received one of his two Best Director nominations for Flags of Our Fathers, because it was left out of the Best Picture race. People clearly like Letters better than Flags.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA)

PENÉLOPE CRUZ, VOLVER

JUDI DENCH, NOTES ON A SCANDAL

MAGGIE GYLLENHAAL, SHERRYBABY

HELEN MIRREN, THE QUEEN

KATE WINSLET, LITTLE CHILDREN

Fantasy Moguls Lowdown: To-date, Little Children has delivered less than $2 million in box office. Its three nominations including the Best Actress nod for Winslet should lift this edgy little drama toward $10 million.

If you can acquire Notes On A Scandal (Fox Searchlight) for Ultimate Moguls, do it. Killer reviews, excellent PTA and maybe as much as $20 million in box office.

Sherrybaby is a fantastic little movie, but I have yet to hear how IFC will handle a re-release. This dark little gem could score $1-$2 million.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA)

LEONARDO DICAPRIO, BLOOD DIAMOND

LEONARDO DICAPRIO, THE DEPARTED

PETER O'TOOLE, VENUS

WILL SMITH, THE PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS

FOREST WHITAKER, THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND

Fantasy Moguls Lowdown: Great year for Leo. His double nomination kept either Matt Damon for The Good Shepherd or The Departed and Ken Watanabe for Letters From Iwo Jima out of the field. This might have been The Good Shepherd’s best hope, and it didn’t happen.

BEST MOTION PICTURE (COMEDY OR MUSICAL)

BORAT: CULTURAL LEARNINGS OF AMERICA FOR MAKE BENEFIT GLORIOUS NATION OF KAZAKHSTAN (Fox)

THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA (Fox)

DREAMGIRLS (Paramount/Dreamworks)

LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE (Fox Searchlight)

THANK YOU FOR SMOKING (Fox Searchlight)

Fantasy Moguls Lowdown: It just keeps getting better for Borat owners. There is a whole new audience that will now consider seeing the movie. Other than that, Little Miss Sunshine, The Devil Wears Prada and Thank You For Smoking are all out on DVD already. Dreamgirls is a juggernaut that needs no help. Might have given a little boost to Charlotte's Web, but it'll do just fine without the assistance of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.

Miss Potter (MGM/Weinstein) had the most to gain with a nomination here, but it will have to get by with the Best Actress nod for Renee Zellweger.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE (COMEDY OR MUSICAL)

ANNETTE BENING, RUNNING WITH SCISSORS

TONI COLLETTE, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE

BEYONCÉ KNOWLES, DREAMGIRLS

MERYL STREEP, THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA

RENEE ZELLWEGER, MISS POTTER

Fantasy Moguls Lowdown: Sony may try to capitalize on Bening's nomination by getting Running With Scissors back out there, but the big winner is Miss Potter. By all accounts, this is a sweet little movie and the Weinsteins will squeeze every dollar out of this Globe nomination. This will be an excellent Ultimate Moguls title with solid (although unspectacular) reviews, a great PTA and $10 million or so at the box office.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE (COMEDY OR MUSICAL)

SACHA BARON COHEN, BORAT: CULTURAL LEARNINGS OF AMERICA FOR MAKE BENEFIT GLORIOUS NATION OF KAZAKHSTAN

JOHNNY DEPP, PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN’S CHEST

AARON ECKHART, THANK YOU FOR SMOKING

CHIWETEL EJIOFOR, KINKY BOOTS

WILL FERRELL, STRANGER THAN FICTION

Fantasy Moguls Lowdown: Ferrell's nomination may help to keep Stranger Than Fiction (Sony) onscreen a little longer, but Cohen is close to a sure thing. As an aside, Chiwetel Ejiofor is fantastic in Kinky Boots (Miramax), and, if you put it in your Netflix cue, you'll thank me.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

CARS (Buena Vista)

HAPPY FEET (Warner Bros)

MONSTER HOUSE (Sony)

Fantasy Moguls Lowdown: No Flushed Away (Paramount/Dreamworks) which is a major surprise. Cars and Monster House are out on DVD. If you own the penguins movie, you're probably dominating your league. I don't think a Golden Globe nomination necessarily adds anything to the monster box office haul for Happy Feet.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

APOCALYPTO [USA] (Buena Vista)

LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA [USA/JAPAN] (Warner Bros.)

THE LIVES OF OTHERS [GERMANY] (Sony Classics)

PAN’S LABYRINTH [MEXICO] (Picturehouse)

VOLVER [SPAIN] (Sony Classics)

Fantasy Moguls Lowdown: Doesn't hurt Apocalypto, but I don't know how much it helps. It's due for a 40-45 percent drop this weekend regardless. The other four films are excellent Ultimate Moguls plays. The best of the bunch for box office will be Letters From Iwo Jima, but it's hard to imagine more than $15 million in total box office. The Lives of Others and Pan's Labrynth will both deliver killer PTA numbers and fantastic reviews.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
ADRIANA BARRAZA, BABEL

CATE BLANCHETT, NOTES ON A SCANDAL

EMILY BLUNT, THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA

JENNIFER HUDSON, DREAMGIRLS

RINKO KIKUCHI, BABEL

Fantasy Moguls Lowdown: The surprise here is Emily Blunt for The Devil Wears Prada. She does deliver one of the funniest lines of the year, "I'm just one stomach flu away from my goal weight." Jennifer Hudson is the surest winner at this year's Globes, and you'll agree once you see the movie. Good for Rinko Kikuchi and Adriana Barraza. Both are very excellent in Babel.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE

BEN AFFLECK, HOLLYWOODLAND

EDDIE MURPHY, DREAMGIRLS

JACK NICHOLSON, THE DEPARTED

BRAD PITT, BABEL

MARK WAHLBERG, THE DEPARTED

Fantasy Moguls Lowdown: There was no way that the HFPA would ignore Ben Affleck. I don't think he deserves to win, but he's got a shot. It should come down to Nicholson and Murphy with Pitt as a longer shot. For Mark Wahlberg, the nomination itself is a coup.

BEST DIRECTOR (MOTION PICTURE)

CLINT EASTWOOD, FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS

CLINT EASTWOOD, LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA

STEPHEN FREARS, THE QUEEN

ALEJANDRO GONZALEZ IÑÁRRITU, BABEL

MARTIN SCORSESE, THE DEPARTED

Fantasy Moguls Lowdown: How do voters handle having Eastwood in the category twice? Should come down to Eastwood for Letters or Scorsese. The last time these two went head-to-head at the Oscars, Eastwood won for Million Dollar Baby and Scorsese (for The Aviator) was denied yet again. This year, it's got to be Scorsese

BEST SCREENPLAY (MOTION PICTURE)

GUILLERMO ARRIAGA, BABEL

TODD FIELD &
TOM PERROTTA, LITTLE CHILDREN

PATRICK MARBER, NOTES ON A SCANDAL

WILLIAM MONAHAN, THE DEPARTED

PETER MORGAN, THE QUEEN

Fantasy Moguls Lowdown: All five of these films are showing strength across the board. Morgan is a slight favorite.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – MOTION PICTURE

ALEXANDRE DESPLAT, THE PAINTED VEIL

CLINT MANSELL, THE FOUNTAIN

GUSTAVO SANTAOLALLA, BABEL

CARLO SILIOTTO, NOMAD

HANS ZIMMER, THE DA VINCI CODE

Fantasy Moguls Lowdown: The HFPA loves Hans Zimmer. Desplat may score the upset.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG – MOTION PICTURE

"A FATHER'S WAY" — THE PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS
Music by: Seal and Christopher Bruce
Lyrics by: Seal

"LISTEN" — DREAMGIRLS
Music & Lyrics by: Henry Krieger, Anne Preven, Scott Cutler and Beyoncé Knowles

"NEVER GONNA BREAK MY FAITH" — BOBBY
Music & Lyrics by: Bryan Adams, Eliot Kennedy and Andrea Remanda

"THE SONG OF THE HEART" — HAPPY FEET
Music & Lyrics by: Prince Rogers Nelson

"TRY NOT TO REMEMBER" — HOME OF THE BRAVE
Music & Lyrics by: Sheryl Crow

Fantasy Moguls Lowdown: As far as I'm concerned, "Listen" cannot lose, but having Seal, Prince, Bryan Adams and Sheryl Crow perform on the Oscar telecast will be fun.

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Posted at 02:03 PM in Advice and Analysis, Awards, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent | Permalink

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