Last weekend, most prognosticators picked The Holiday (Sony) to win the weekend. I went with Mel Gibson’s Apocalypto (Buena Vista) and was right. This weekend, the industry guru types are leaning toward Eragon, but I say Dakota Fanning, with some help from Julia Roberts and Oprah Winfrey, will carry the day.

Before breaking down the 3 wide releases, I should point out that 3 important limited releases also open – Dreamgirls (Paramount/Dreamworks), The Good German (Warner Bros) and Breaking & Entering (Weinstein). A fourth, Home of the Brave (MGM) starring Samuel L. Jackson, looks to break through the clutter on 3 screens, and it has its work cut out for it.

As I’ve previously written, Dreamgirls is, for me, the best film of 2006, and I think it will hit $170-$200 million domestic. If you own the picture in Ultimate Moguls, get ready for a blistering 2 weekends of PTA. Bill Condon’s musical masterpiece is playing on just 3 screens until Christmas, so you’ll pick up 5 points this weekend and another 5 next weekend as it easily wins the Per Theatre Average battle.

Steven Soderbergh’s The Good German and Anthony Minghella’s Breaking & Entering (Weinstein) are questionable Ultimate Moguls plays. They aren’t Box Office Moguls plays at all. The Good German, a black and white Casablanca homage starring George Clooney, Cate Blanchett and Tobey Maguire, has just a 30% positive rating at RottenTomatoes.com, and it was completely shut out by the Hollywood Foreign Press. Despite those facts, it should still get you a few PTA points. The British drama Breaking & Entering is managing only 45% positive reviews from RottenTomatoes.com, but is has garnered some end-of-year honors. It’s not a box office play, but it may be slightly better for Ultimate than The Good German.

Now for the main event.

I have never read Charlotte’s Web, and I have no interest in seeing the movie (maybe if I had a daughter, I would have no choice), but this picture should coast to $125-$150 million in domestic box office.

The Holiday tried to position itself as a chick flick last week with moderate results. This is the holiday chick flick. Every woman read Charlotte’s Web at some point, and they will turn out to see the amazing little Dakota Fanning in the lead along with the voices of Julia Roberts, Oprah Winfrey, Cedric the Entertainer, Reba McEntire and others. Director Gary Winick knows how to do cute (13 Going on 30, Tadpole), and by all accounts, he hits the mark here. Charlotte’s Web should get off to a solid start this weekend with $21-$24 million.

Charlotte’s Web By The Numbers

Top 3 Gary Winick-Directed Movies (Domestic Box Office)
1. 13 Going On 30 - $57,231,000
2. Tadpole -$2,891,000
3. The Tic Code - $205,003

Top 5 Gary Winick-Produced Movies (Domestic Box Office)
1. Uptown Girls - $37,183,000
2. Tadpole - $2,891,000
3. Pieces of April - $2,528,000
4. Personal Veliocity - $811,289
5. Lonesome Jim - $154,187

Top 5 Dakota Fanning Films – Domestic Box Office
1. War of the Worlds - $234,280,000
2. Sweet Home Alabama - $127,223,000
3. The Cat In the Hat - $101,149,000
4. Man On Fire - $77,911,000
5. Hide and Seek - $51,100,000

Top 20 Julia Roberts Films (Domestic Box Office)
1. Ocean’s Eleven - $183,417,000
2. Pretty Woman - $178,406,000
3. Runaway Bride - $152,257,000
4. My Best Friend’s Wedding - $127,120,000
5. Erin Brockovich - $125,595,000
6. Ocean’s Twelve - $125,544,000
7. Hook - $119,654,000
8. Notting Hill - $116,089,000
9. Sleeping With the Enemy - $101,599,000
10. The Pelican Brief - $100,768,000
11. America’s Sweethearts - $93,607,000
12. Stepmom - $91,137,000
13. Steel Magnolias - $83,759,000
14. Conspiracy Theory - $75,982,000
15. The Mexican - $66,945,000
16. Mona Lisa Smile - $63,860,000
17. Flatliners - $61,489,000
18. Something To Talk About - $50,865,000
19. Closer - $33,987,000
20. Dying Young - $33,669,000

Top 3 Oprah Winfrey Films – Domestic Box Office
1. The Color Purple - $98,467,000
2. Beloved - $22,852,000
3. Native Son - $1,301,000

All-Time Top 20 Children’s Books Turned Into Movies – Domestic Box Office
1. Harry Potter & the Sorcerer’s Stone - $317,575,000
2. The Chronicles of Narnia - $291,710,000
3. Harry Potter & the Goblet of Fire - $290,013,000
4. Shrek - $267,665,000
5. Harry Potter & the Chamber of Secrets - $261,988,000
6. How the Grinch Stole Christmas - $260,044,000
7. Harry Potter & the Prisoner of Azkaban - $249,541,000
8. Charlie & the Chocolate Factory - $206,459,000
9. The Polar Express - $173,675,000
10. Stuart Little - $140,035,000
11. Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events - $118,634,000
12. The Cat In the Hat - $101,149,000
13. Jumanji - $100,475,000
14. Holes - $67,406,000
15. Curious George - $58,360,000
16. The Indian In the Cupboard - $35,656,000
17. My Dog Skip - $34,134,000
18. Matilda - $33,459,000
19. Because of Winn-Dixie - $32,647,000
20. Secret Garden - $31,181,000

Most of the so-called experts have Eragon at the top of the box office this weekend, but dragons have never been much of a draw. There was Dragonheart with $51 million domestict, Reign of Fire, which I liked, starring Matthew McConaughey and Christian Bale, did only $43 million, and who could forget Dungeons & Dragons with just $15 million domestic (and also had Eragon’s Jeremy Irons in the cast).

Not sure why dragon movies haven’t worked in the past. Maybe its because they are creatures of the imagination, and what’s in our heads is more interesting than the any screen rendering can be. It may also be that these dragon movies tend to be stuffy period films filled with British accents (although that wasn’t the case with Reign of Fire). Plus, interest in dragons tends to be limited to teen boys (I went through a dragon and dinosaur phase).

I’ve written before about the CGI in Eragon. In the trailers, the dragons look fake. It almost looks like animation. Filmmakers have become too reliant on CGI, and computers don’t create real-looking images a lot of the time.

Dirtector Stefen Fangmeier has a background as a visual effects guy with films like Jurassic Park and Terminator 2 to his credit, so maybe he can pull this off, but I’m unconvinced. Eragon has a shot to win the week, but I place it second with $19-$22 million.

Eragon By The Numbers

All-Time Top 5 Dragon Movies – Domestic Box Office
1. Mulan - $120,620,000
2. Dragonheart - $51,367,000
3. Reign of Fire - $43,061,000
4. Quest For Camelot - $22,510,000
5. The Neverending Story - $20,158,000

Top 5 Movies with Visual Effects by Stefen Fangmeier – Domestic Box Office
1. Jurassic Park - $357,067,000
2. Signs - $227,966,000
3. Saving Private Ryan - $216,540,000
4. Terminator 2 - $204,483,000
5. The Perfect Storm - $182,618,000

Top 5 Jeremy Irons Films – Domestic Box Office
1. The Lion King - $328,541,000
2. Die Hard: With A Vengeance - $100,012,000
3. The Man In the Iron Mask - $56,968,000
4. Kingdom of Heaven - $47,398,000
5. The French Lieutenant’s Woman - $26,890,000

Top 5 John Malkovich Films – Domestic Box Office
1. In the Line of Fire - $102,314,000
2. Con Air - $101,117,000
3. The Man In the Iron Mask - $56,968,000
4. The Hitchhiker’s Guide To the Galaxy - $51,085,000
5. Places In the Heart - $34,901,000

Top 5 Djimon Hounsou Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Gladiator - $187,705,000
2. Amistad - $44,229,000
3. Beauty Shop - $36,351,000
4. The Island - $35,818,000
5. In America - $15,539,000

Will Smith has been one of the most likeable onscreen personalities for well over a decade. For a number of years, he was the official “King of the 4th of July” with action/sci fi movies like Independence Day, Men In Black and Wild Wild West dominating the summer holiday weekend. He has also shown a knack for romantic comedy with last year’s Hitch scoring a cool $179 million in box office.

If Pursuit of Happyness had scored a Best Picture-Drama nomination from the Golden Globes, it would have given the picture a much higher profile. Any time you can associate the term Best Picture with a movie, it means dollars at the box office. Will did get his expected Golden Globe nomination, which is helpful, but critical reaction has been fairly tepid. It’s viewed as a very good performance in a pretty pedestrian 3-hankie weepie.

Will with his kid is cute, and women will show up. If they show up in larger numbers than I anticipate, it could swing the weekend win to Eragon, but I’m placing Pursuit of Happyness at #3 with $15-$18 million.

Pursuit of Happyness By The Numbers

Top 10 Will Smith Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Independence Day – $306,169,000
2. Men In Black - $250,690,000
3. Men In Black II - $190,418,000
4. Hitch - $179,495,000
5. Shark Tale - $160,861,000
6. I, Robot - $144,801,000
7. Bad Boys II - $138,608,000
8. Wild Wild West - $113,805,000
9. Enemy of the State - $111,549,000
10. Bad Boys - $65,807,000

Top 5 Thandie Newton Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Mission Impossible II - $215,409,000
2. Interview With The Vampire - $105,264,000
3. The Chronicles of Riddick - $57,761,000
4. Crash - $54,580,000
5. Beloved - $22,852,000

All-Time Top 5 Movies Starring Father and Son – Domestic Box Office
1. A Time To Kill – Donald Sutherland/Kiefer Sutherland - $108,766,000
2. Hot Shots! – Martin Sheen/Charlie Sheen – $69,467,000
3. Wall Street – Martin Sheen/Charlie Sheen - $43,848,000
4. Zoolander – Jerry Stiller/Ben Stiller - $45,172,000
5. Hot Shots! Part Deux – Martin Sheen/Charlie Sheen - $38,922,000

Here’s how I see the weekend playing out:

1. Charlotte’s Web - $22.8 million
2. Eragon - $20.7 million
3. Pursuit of Happyness - $17.2 million
4. Apocalypto - $9.1 million
5. Happy Feet - $8.5 million
6. The Holiday - $7.9 million
7. Casino Royale - $5.2 million
8. Blood Diamond - $4.6 million
9. Déjà Vu - $3.9 million
10. Nativity Story - $3.5 million

Limited Releases:
Dreamgirls – 3 screens - $350,000 PTA
Breaking & Entering – 1 screen - $49,000 PTA
The Good German – 5 screens - $41,000 PTA
Home of the Brave – 3 screens - $19,000 PTA