Many of the Hollywood box office analysts felt that the "spoof movie" concept had played itself out. Epic Movie creators Jason Friedberg and Aaron Seltzer had a hand in the Scary Movie franchise, and three of the four of those films had opening weekends of $40 million plus, but a year ago, their Date Movie managed just $19 million.

It's no surprise that Epic Movie was not screened for critics. It is likely as desperately unfunny as Date Movie, but nobody in its Under 25 core audience seems to care. Friedberg and Seltzer have another box office winner. It looks like Epic Movie could hit $20-$22.5 million, but one of my sources tells me that it looks more like high teens. I'll call Epic Movie at $18-$20 million.

Count me among the fans of Smokin' Aces (Universal), but the general critical consensus is very negative. I say, it ain't art. It's fun. But, the onslaught of negative reviews has definitely dampened the box office results. Aces will finish the three-day weekend at No. 2 with $12-$14 million.

As bad as the reviews for Smokin' Aces are, the reviews for Sony's Catch & Release, starring Jennifer Garner, are worse. Not even Sony, a studio that could seemingly release co-chairman Amy Pascal's home movies and win a weekend box office crown, can save this tank job. Catch & Release will finish with $6-$7.5 million.

The fourth new release of the weekend is the barely promoted Blood and Chocolate from MGM. This werewolf tale, purportedly from the creators of the Underworld films, is barely registering a blip in the marketplace. This horror flick will finish with between $3-$4 million (and probably closer to $3 million).

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Epic Movie (Fox) -- $18-$20 million
2. Smokin' Aces (Universal) -- $12-$14 million
3. Night at the Museum (Fox) -- $7-$8.5 million
4. Dreamgirls (Paramount/Dreamworks) -- $6.5-$8.5 million
5. Stomp the Yard (Sony) -- $6.5-$8 million
*Catch & Release (Sony) -- $6-$7.5 million
*Blood & Chocolate (MGM) -- $3-$4 million