Our brand new Exclusive FantasyMoguls.com Early 3-Day Estimates are a success.

As I reported here yesterday, Epic Movie (Fox) will win the weekend with $18-$20 million.

Been cranking through numbers all day, and I can now safely project Epic Movie (Fox) as the winner of this box office weekend (Jan. 26-28). This is our first-ever round of Early 3-Day Estimates. These numbers are not perfect. There is some margin of error involved, but the ranking of new releases for the weekend and the narrow ranges for weekend grosses are very solid. These numbers are arrived at by taking key East Coast matinees of today's opening films and comparing those numbers to the historical performance of similar films. These numbers are further refined after conversations with industry sources.

First off, we will be offering a brand new feature at FantasyMoguls.com starting Jan. 26 at about 1 p.m. Pacific/4 p.m. Eastern. We will offer Exclusive Early 3-Day Estimates for the weekend. These numbers are not completely foolproof, as there is a margin of error involved. I strongly believe, however, that we will correctly predict the final ranking of films for the weekend, and we should be able to give you a very narrow range for dollar amounts that the major titles will generate.

The Paramount and Dreamworks musical Dreamgirls was considered a certain nominee and a likely winner for Best Picture, but the Oscar race changed dramatically when the movie received one of the most shocking snubs in Academy Awards history. Despite its overall strength (eight nominations), the film received no Best Picture nomination and Director Bill Condon was also overlooked. Jennifer Hudson and Eddie Murphy both received their anticipated supporting acting nominations, and the film was also recognized for sound mixing, art direction, costumes and for three of its original songs.

Been meaning to post a little note for a while now. It's amazing what nice, quiet, open time jetlag can free up, so I finally have a few minutes to put some thoughts on, er, paper.

THANK YOU
First of all, thanks to all of you who participated in our first, holiday season of FantasyMoguls.com. One of the things I've enjoyed most is getting to know some of you -- via message boards or e-mail or even some of the random questions you've lobbed our way ... Our customer service guru, Janet, does a tremendous job of getting back to everyone quickly, and sometimes I'll jump in with a personal note as well, and most of the time you're nice enough to write back. We get a lot of energy out of the passion you have for movies and for the site -- it definitely keeps us going when it seems like the to-do list is unendingly long.

Even here at Fantasy Moguls, just like everywhere else in the world, life imitates art and art imitates life and all of that philosophical crap. Personally, we think that's just what the beautiful people tell themselves so they feel smart and deep ... but bear with us anyway.

Stomp the Yard (Sony) will eke out the weekend box office win with $13.3 million, bringing its 10-day cume to a surprising $41.5 million. Night at the Museum (Fox), powered by a $6.1 million take on Saturday, is expected to finish a close second for the weekend with $13 million. The Ben Stiller action comedy has now banked an incredible $205.8 million since opening Dec. 22. It becomes the 73rd movie in history to top the $200 million mark, and the sixth 2006 release to do so. The others:

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (Buena Vista) -- $423.3 million
Cars (Buena Vista) -- $244 million
X-Men: The Last Stand (Fox) -- $234.3 million
The Da Vinci Code (Sony) -- $217.5 million
Superman Returns (Warner Bros.) -- $200 million

Meanwhile, Dreamgirls (Paramount/Dreamworks) continued its post-Golden Globes surge by taking the No. 3 spot at the weekend box office with an estimated $8.7 million, upping its domestic gross to $78.1 million.

Stomp the Yard (Sony) was at the top of the Friday box office, but Ben Stiller’s Night at the Museum (Fox) will likely win the weekend with a 3-day of $15 million or so. Rough early estimates show that Stomp enjoyed a $4 million Friday compared to last Friday’s $7.2, and the Sony dance flick should deliver $12.1 for the weekend. Meanwhile, Rogue’s The Hitcher scored just $3.2 million on Friday, and it is likely to pick up a disappointing $8.6 million for the weekend.

Only 1 new wide release this weekend (1/19-1/21), a remake of the hardly-seen (at the time) 1986 film The Hitcher starring Rutger Hauer, C. Thomas Howell and Jennifer Jason-Leigh. Despite a total domestic box office take of less than $6 million, the picture definitely gained notoriety and respect thanks to home video.