ONE MONTH OUT: 'Daddy's Little Girls' Trumps 'Ghost Rider'
by Ronald Banks
Welcome back to the second installment of "One Month Out," a new feature here on Fantasy Moguls where, instead of discussing films that are currently in release, I take a look at what's coming out in a month. Hopefully that'll give you enough time to jump on the surefire winners -- or stay away from the surefire losers. It's all very simple.
The weekend we're looking at this time is the weekend of Feb. 16. First up that weekend, in alphabetical order, is a film called Breach. This is from Billy Ray, the writer-director of Shattered Glass. What do I know about Breach? Not much. Absolutely nothing, actually. Never even heard of it before. Perhaps there's a reason for all of the secrecy, since IMDb.com tells me the Breach is about "the greatest security breach in U.S. history." It also has a cast that includes Chris Cooper, Ryan Phillipe, Laura Linney, Dennis Haysbert and Gary Cole. Again, not telling me much.
I am intrigued, however, by the thought of what this film may do for your Fantasy Moguls slate. For starters, if I haven't heard of it, then there's a good chance that no one in your Fantasy Moguls draft will have heard of it either. So that means no one's going to be jumping at the chance to pick it up ... which could be good for you. You definitely don't want to pick this movie with a first or second pick, but it may be what the pro-wrestling world would refer to as a "mid-carder." It's not going to win you huge points, but it's also not the bottom of the barrel.
I like it as a middle of the pack pick because I think this movie will do decent numbers -- the CIA-powered story should have broad appeal, the cast is an interesting mix and, more importantly, it's opening wide. There's always going to be a point in your draft where you're just going to be picking random movies. And like me at the horse track, you're probably just going to pick your favorites on how cool their names are. Now, Breach isn't a very sexy name, but that works to your advantage: No one else will pick it.
Next in line after Breach is a Disney film called Bridge to Terabithia. This is a film I'd consider to be the opposite of Breach. First off, this movie's based on a book that is fairly widely known and loved by those who've read it. I qualify that statement because, although the trailers say "Based on the beloved novel," the title doesn't pass the Ronald Banks test: I've never heard of it. (Maybe I'm the only one. Did I mention I grew up in a cave?)
Here's why I think Bridge to Terabithia is going to be a big film. Remember that, around this time of year, there aren't many blockbuster films out in theaters. I have a feeling this film will go fast in your Fantasy Moguls draft. It's a family film -- always a solid bet -- it's opening wide, and it's an interesting blend of animation and live action. (Oh, and did I mention that Disney is distributing? Expect a major marketing campaign, in other words.) This one sells itself. Look at the example set by Happy Feet -- if it's available when your pick comes up, then grab it.
Then we have Ghost Rider. That would be Marvel Comics's Ghost Rider. I have a feeling that a lot of people are going to pick this one early, and rightfully so. For those of you who've been off reading Bridge to Terabithia instead of comic books, this film is the story of Johnny Blaze (played by Nicholas Cage), a stunt driver who makes a deal with the devil to save someone's life. Or something like that -- I couldn't find any back issues. The trailer looks interesting, but amongst all the people I know, I'd venture to guess that I'm the only one who has that opinion.
Here's my advice to you, the reader -- don't pick this movie. It's more of a gamble than it's worth. The movie could be good, or it could be terrible. (Critics who remember Mark Steven Johnson's other superhero films, Daredevil and Elektra, are probably already leaning towards the latter.) And there seems to already be a backlash against it among fans, which could snuff out the chances that it'll make a killing at the box office. Ignore this film and let one of your friends sweat it out.
After all, there are plenty of options that weekend: Also opening is Music and Lyrics, starring Drew Barrymore and Hugh Grant. It's about Hugh Grant meeting Drew Barrymore and falling in love -- trust me, the specifics are inconsequential. There's not much else about this one that would lead me me to highly recommend it. It'll do well, sure, but I don't see this thing breaking the bank. I also don't see its per theater average taking off, which probably won't happen for any films opening this weekend, unless the Tyler Perry picture pulls it off (more about that in a moment). Bottom line: If you are looking for another mid-carder, then you could do worse.
That bring me to our final wide release of the weekend. (I know, it's like Christmas in February -- if for Christmas you got semi-cruddy movies instead of gifts.) (Or maybe it's like Hanukkah in February. You make the call.)
Our final film opening wide on Feb. 16 is Tyler Perry's Daddy's Little Girls. This is a movie that should be on your radar. The last two years, Tyler Perry has released two films that have both done really well. Expcet solid per theater averages on this one, as well as a good box office run. (You may also pick up some extra points on number of possessive nouns in the title, who knows?)
Okay, that's the scoop. The most important thing to remember is this: Take Bridge to Terabithia over anything else, and take Tyler Perry's Daddy's Little Girls over Ghost Rider. Yes, I know, flaming motorcycle-riding skeletons are cool -- but that's what Halloween is for.
Ronald Banks has already picked out his Halloween costume. He's going as Gustav from the killer-crocodile-on-a-rampage movie Primeval. Tell him how badass that is by e-mailing him at Ronald@fantasymoguls.com.


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