We will arrive at these numbers by taking key East Coast matinee grosses and comparing those numbers to similar films at the same key East Coast locations. This information will be combined with information from key industry sources. It's complicated as hell, but I believe that we are beginning to zero in on providing Fantasy Moguls players with the earliest and most accurate Box Office Projections available anywhere.

It's a two-horse race this weekend (Jan. 26-28), a critical three-day frame that will determine the champions in many a Fantasy Moguls league. If you are looking for a strong finish in your Moguls Box Office league, then you should be in pretty decent shape with either Smokin' Aces (Universal) or Epic Movie (Fox). If you are in an Ultimate Moguls league, then Aces should help you across the board with a good IMDb User Rating score and nifty PTA.

As I wrote here all the way back in December, I'm a big fan of Smokin' Aces. Writer/Director Joe Carnahan (Narc) is back with an over-the-top, violent, shoot-'em-up that has a mean streak and lots of laughs. Jeremy Piven, Ari Gold from Entourage, stars as Buddy Aces, a Vegas magician who runs afoul of an organized crime kingpin. Every hitman (and woman) in America decides to try to whack Buddy to claim a big bounty. Killer cast with Ryan Reynolds, Andy Garcia, Ben Affleck, Peter Berg, Alicia Keyes, Taraji P. Henson, rapper Common, Matthew Fox and more. I'm looking for $6,300 or so per location and a $12-$15 million weekend.

Epic Movie is another spoof in the tradition of the Scary Movie films and Date Movie. Personally, I like the genre. The Scary Movie films have been wildly uneven, but they definitely have their moments. Last year's Date Movie, on the other hand, was consistently awful. Among the most painful moviegoing experiences of 2006. Here's a scorecard for recent spoof films:

Scary Movie -- $42.3 million opening weekend, $157 million cume
Scary Movie 2 -- $20.5 million opening weekend, $71.3 million cume
Scary Movie 3 -- $48.1 million opening weekend, $110 million cume
Scary Movie 4 -- $40.2 million opening weekend, $90.7 million cume
Date Movie -- $19 million opening weekend, $48.5 million cume

I'm told that tracking is surging for Epic, but it's a longshot to match even last year's Date Movie opening of $19 million. I say it is a close second to Aces with $11-$14 million for the weekend.

Can Jennifer Garner open a movie? The jury is out with just three major films on her resume and Catch and Release (Sony) set to debut on 1,622 screens this weekend:

Daredevil -- $40.3 million opening weekend, $102.5 million cume
13 Going On 30 -- $21 million opening weekend, $57.2 million cume
Elektra -- $12.8 million opening weekend, $24.4 million cume

I was surprised to see that 13 Going on 30 scored $21 million on its opening weekend. She's got appeal with women -- not so sexy as to seem threatening. There is always room for a "chick flick" in the market, and sometimes these pictures fly under the radar. Remember, The Devil Wears Prada opened to $27.5 million last June on its way to $124.7 million domestic. But Catch lacks a well-known male lead (although Timothy Olyphant is an up-and-comer), and it lacks the multigenerational appeal of Prada (Streep plus Hathaway equals a hit with women of all ages). Given Sony's unprecedented hot streak (no studio has ever had as many films win box office weekend crowns as Sony did in 2006) and the unreliability of tracking lately, there's always the possibility of an upside surprise, but I'll put this one in the high single digits with the possibility $11 million at the high end.

The new year isn't even a month old, and we've already had two horror films tank. Disney's Primeval opened to just $6 million, and last weekend Rogue's The Hitcher delivered just $7.8 million. This weekend, MGM’s Blood & Chocolate goes to the slaughter. Awful special effects in trailers and commercials and miserable tracking make this one likely to fare even worse than the killer croc pic and the hitchhiker from hell flick. Pencil in Blood & Chocolate for just  $4-$7 million.

As for holdovers, Stomp the Yard (Sony) is good for one more Top 5 finish, and this will probably be the final Top 5 finish for the 20th Century Fox megahit Night at the Museum. Paramount/Dreamworks is bitterly disappointed about missing out on a Best Picture nomination for Dreamgirls, and that will likely cost the film as much as $25 million in total domestic box office. It's interesting to note that this is the first time in Oscar history that the movie with the most nominations (eight) was left out of the Best Picture category. The Bill Condon-directed musical will be down from last weekend's $8 million to something in the neighborhood of $6.5 million.

Other films are taking advantage of Oscar nominations. The Departed (Warner Bros) is getting a major rerelease to almost 1,500 screens. It has a shot to add another $3-$6 million to its already healthy domestic box office take of $121.8 million. The Queen (Miramax) should receive a slight bump along with Babel (Paramount Vantage) and The Last King of Scotland (Fox Searchlight). Volver (Sony Classics) and Notes on a Scandal will both expand to over 600 screens, and they both should top $2 million for the three-day frame.

Here are my Weekend Projections as of Thursday, Jan. 25:

1. Smokin' Aces (Universal) -- $14.9 million
2. Epic Movie (Fox) -- $13.5
3. Catch & Release (Sony) -- $9.3 million
4. Stomp the Yard (Sony) -- $7.6 million
5. Night at the Museum  (Fox) -- $7.2 million
6. Dreamgirls (Paramount/Dreamworks) -- $6.5 million
7. Blood & Chocolate (MGM) -- $5.1 million
8. The Hitcher (Fox) -- $4.75 million
9. The Pursuit of Happyness (Sony) -- $4.1 million
10. The Departed (Warner Bros.) -- $4 million
11. The Queen (Miramax) -- $3.8 million
12. Pan’s Labyrinth (Picturehouse) -- $3.7 million
13. Babel (Paramount Vantage) -- $3 million
14. Freedom Writers (Paramount) -- $2.9 million
15. Volver (Sony Classics) -- $2.3 million
16. Notes on a Scandal (Fox Searchlight) -- $2.1 million
17. The Last King of Scotland (Fox Searchlight) -- $2 million
18. Blood Diamond (Warner Bros.) -- $1.9 million
19. Arthur & the Invisibles (MGM/Weinstein) -- $1.8 million
20. Charlotte's Web (Paramount) '' $1.4 million