Our goal at FantasyMoguls.com is to provide the earliest and most accurate box office results anywhere. I Use raw data from east coast matinees compared to historical east coast matinee numbers for comparable films. That methodology, along with guidance from key sources, allows me to project the weekend box office numbers before the weekend even starts.

Despite blisteringly bad reviews, Norbit is playing well with Under 25’s, and, in Latino communities, it is playing like a family film. Based on east coast matinee and conversations with key industry sources, Norbit will score $8.5-$10 million today and $27-$30 million for the 3-day weekend. Based on projection models, the bawdy comedy should finish with a total domestic gross in the $80 million range.

Meanwhile, the latest outing for the Hannibal Lecter character, a prequel called Hannibal Rising, will generate $7-$8.5 million today and an anticipated 3-day of $19-$22 million at just over 3,000 locations. It appears that this high-risk project for MGM/Weinstein will pay off. This is Hannibal Lecter, the early years. No Anthony Hopkins. Instead, virtually-unknown French actor Gaspard Ulliel (A Very Long Engagement) plays Hannibal, and the only other names in the cast are Rhys Ifans (Notting Hill, Enduring Love) and Gong Li (Miami Vice, Curse of the Golden Flower). Additionally, it is the first time that Thomas Harris has adapted one of his own novels for the screen. The timing of the film is highly unusual since the hardcover Hannibal Rising was released on December 5. It is unprecedented that a film is completed and released while a book is still on the hardcover bestseller list. Perhaps other well-known novelists will attempt to write book and screenplay, essentially, simultaneously.

This is the fifth big screen outing for the Lecter character, and if the numbers hold up, this will be the 3rd best Hannibal Lecter opening weekend, ahead of Manhunter and Silence of the Lambs, but behind Hannibal and Red Dragon.

1986 - Manhunter - $2.2 million opening weekend - $8.6 million cume
1991 - Silence of the Lambs - $13.7 million opening weekend - $130.7 cume
2001 - Hannibal - $58 million opening weekend - $165.1 million cume
2002 - Red Dragon - $36.5 million opening weekend - $93.1 million cume.

It appears that Because I Said So (Universal) will finish 3rd for the weekend with $6.5-$8 million, followed by The Messengers (Sony) with $6-$7.5 million and the unstoppable Night at the Museum (Fox) at $4-$5.5 million.

EXCLUSE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Norbit (Paramount) - $27-$30 million
2. Hannibal Rising (MGM/Weinstein) - $19-$22 million
3. Because I Said So (Universal) - $6.5-$8 million
4. The Messengers (Sony) - $6-$7.5 million
5. Night at the Museum (Fox) - $4-$5.5 million
6. Epic Movie (Fox) - $2-$3 million
7. Smokin’ Aces (Universal) - $2-$3 million
8. Pan’s Labrynth (Picturehouse) - $2-$2.75 million
9. Dreamgirls (Paramount/Dreamworks) - $2-$2.5 million
10. The Queen (Miramax) - $1.7-$2 million