STOCK RISING

BALLS OF FURY (Rogue Releasing) -- April 27 (Wide)
A down-and-out former pro ping-pong superstar named Randy Daytona sets out to regain glory and avenge his father's death. This is a comedy in the same vein as under-appreciated classics like Kingpin ($25 million domestic) and Happy Gilmore ($38 million), along with surprise hit Dodgeball ($114 million domestic). Rising star Dan Fogler  (School for Scoundrels and the soon-to-be-released Number 13) stars, along with Christopher Walken (Wedding Crashers) as arch-villain Feng, TV star George Lopez and Jason Scott Lee (Dragon: The Bruce Lee Story). Co-written and directed by Night at the Museum screenwriter Ben Garant. This is the kind of under-the-radar comedy that has the potential to be a breakout hit.

THE INVISIBLE (Buena Vista) -- April 27 (Wide)
The name that gives this project sizzle is David S. Goyer, one of the hottest screenwriters in Hollywood at the moment. The Blade films, starring Wesley Snipes, put him on the map, then his screenplay for Christopher Nolan's Batman Begins made him one of the most sought-after scripters in town. He is currently working on the Batman sequel The Dark Knight, and screenplays for Thor, The Flash and Captain America will follow. He has directed The Invisible from a script by Mick Davis (writer and director of Modigliani) and Christine Roum. Plot has a The Sixth Sense-sounding flavor, and the cast includes Maggie Ma (Final Destination 3) and Oscar winner Marcia Gay Harden (Pollock). This one was originally scheduled to be dumped in January, but they opted to give it a better slot. It won't set the world on fire, but $40 million is possible.

FRACTURE (New Line) -- April 27 (Wide)
This date is incredibly crowded with five major wide releases, but this New Line project sounds like the best adult film of the bunch. Oscar nominee Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson) stars as a DA in pursuit of a man who dodges jail time after being accused of attempted murder. The would-be killer is played by Oscar winner Anthony Hopkins, and the cast also includes Oscar nominee David Strathairn (Good Night, and Good Luck). Director Gregory Hoblit is a tried-and-true television director (Hill Street Blues, NYPD Blue and LA Law) who has had some success on the big screen, most notably with Primal Fear ($56 million) and Frequency ($45 million). Despite New Line's current struggles, I say Fracture breaks through as a grown-up hit -- maybe $45-$50 million, IMDb User Rating score of 6-7, 5-6 Top 5 points and 2-3 PTA points.

AWAY FROM HER (Lionsgate) -- May 4 (Limited)
While the world is wrapped up in Spiderman fever, this sneaky little directorial debut from actress Sarah Polley could be a key title in your winning Ultimate Moguls strategy. As an actress, Polley has impressed in films as diverse as Atom Egoyan's The Sweet Hereafter and the fantastic 2004 version of Dawn of the Dead. By all accounts, she has worked a miracle here in her first go at writing and directing. She adapted the Alice Munro short story The Bear Came Over the Mountain for the big screen, and the resulting film has been embraced on the festival circuit. The brilliant Julie Christie (Heaven Can Wait, Afterglow) plays a woman with Alzheimer's, whose husband (Canadian actor Gordon Pinsent) puts her in a nursing home. The already difficult situation becomes painful as she falls in love with another man at the home played by trusty character actor Michael Murphy (Altman's Tanner '88, X-Men: The Last Stand). This is the perfect Ultimate Moguls movie. You'll get some of the best PTA numbers of the year, a killer IMDb score, and maybe even pick up $10-$15 million worth of box-office grosses along the way.

GEORGIA RULE (Universal) -- May 11 (Wide)
Insert Lindsay Lohan joke here. Yes, she's a disaster, and who knows if she'll be clean and sober and able to talk this movie up with Letterman, Leno, Regis and Kelly and the gang from The View. I can promise that she will be in demand, however, sober or not. And, here's something nobody ever mentions. She can act. Lohan was very good in Mean Girls, A Prairie Home Companion and Bobby. In Georgia Rule, she plays a rebellious, uncontrollable teenager (I think she's got that in her) who gets dragged by her Mom (Golden Globe-winner Felicity Huffman) to spend the summer with her grandmother, Georgia (Oscar-winner Jane Fonda). With a script by Mark Andrus (Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood) and capable direction from Garry Marshall (Pretty Woman, The Princess Diaries), this project has all of the ingredients to be a monster chick flick with $70-$80 million as the possible upside.

DAY NIGHT DAY NIGHT (IFC Films) -- May 11 (Limited)
Already winner of the Prix Regard Jeune at the 2006 Cannes Film Festival and nominated for two Independent Spirit Awards, writer-director Julia Loktev has made quite a splash with her debut feature. Day Night Day Night follows a 19-year-old as she prepares to become a suicide bomber at Times Square. This isn't about politics. The would-be assassin has no accent, and it's impossible to detect her ethnicity. Those who have seen the movie say it is gripping and unforgettable. Given its heavy buzz, this is a very smart Ultimate Moguls title. A gross of $8-$10 million is possible, along with a 7-plus IMDb score and 5-7 PTA points.

THE GOLDEN DOOR (Miramax) -- May 11 (Limited)
This is another solid Ultimate Moguls title that will be released the same day, although its prospects aren't quite as strong as those of Day Night Day Night. An Italian film from Emanuele Crialese, The Golden Door has already stormed through the Venice Film Festival, winning six awards. The film follows early 20th-century Italians as they go from rural Sicily to third-class steerage on a ship bound for America. The always-good Charlotte Gainsbourg (21 Grams, My Wife is an Actress) stars along with the late Vincent Schiavelli (Ghost). This picture will likely finish in the $4-$6 million range with a 7-plus IMDb score and 4-6 PTA points.

SHREK THE THIRD (Paramount/Dreamworks) -- May 18 (Wide)
Paramount execs are thrilled with the final product. The creative team behind the first two Shrek films is intact, and all of the voice actors are back, including Mike Myers, Cameron Diaz, Eddie Murphy, Antonio Banderas and John Cleese. My hunch is that by the time this pictures finishes its theatrical engagement, it'll be the third-highest grossing animated film of all time, ahead of The Lion King's $328.5 million and behind Finding Nemo's $339.7 million. All-time No. 1 Shrek 2 is probably safely out of reach at $441.2 million.

PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD’S END (Buena Vista) -- May 25 (Wide)
This ain't brain surgery. The next installment of Johnny Depp's Jack Sparrow saga can't miss. Dead Man's Chest delivered $423.2 million, and would have piled up a 7.3 IMDd score, 22 Top 5 points and 15 PTA points. My guess is that this franchise comes back to Earth a bit in the far-more-competitive 2007 summer season. How does $325 million, 6.5 IMDb score, 16 Top 5 points and 10 PTA points sound?

OUT OF THE BLUE (IFC Films) -- May 25 (Limited)
Based on the real-life Aramoana Massacre of Nov. 13-14, 1990, this film features relatively unknown Matthew Sunderland as David Gray, who went on a 24-hour shooting spree in a small New Zealand village and killed 13 people. Kiwi action star Karl Urban (Lord of the Rings Trilogy, The Bourne Supremacy) is the only recognizable name in the cast. IFC will platform this slowly, and that should maximize your PTA points.  With this movie, you can count on a great IMDb score and a possible 4-6 PTA points.

HOT ROD (Paramount) -- June 1 (Wide)
Andy Samberg is one of the best reasons to watch Saturday Night Live these days. (Dick in a Box is one of the funniest bits ever to air on SNL.) Is Samberg the next Will Ferrell? We'll get our first indication on June 1 with the release of Hot Rod. Samberg plays an Evel Knievel-type daredevil who, despite his accident prone nature, decides to jump the Snake River on a moped to try to win over his stepdad. Isla Fisher (Sacha Baron Cohen's fiancée), Oscar-winner Sissy Spacek and Ian McShane (Deadwood) also star. This picture has a Talladega Nights feel, and although it won't match Ricky Bobby's $148 million, it could manage a nice little $50-$60 million gross.

KNOCKED UP (Universal) -- June 1 (Wide)
Judd Apatow is one of the funniest guys in Hollywood. He wrote and directed The 40 Year Old Virgin, which made Steve Carell a mega-star, and he also wrote Fun with Dick & Jane ($110 million). In this comedy, Seth Rogan (Cal in 40 Year Old Virgin who said, "Wanna know how I know you're gay? You like Coldplay.") plays a guy who, yes, knocks up a one-night-stand played by Katherine Heigl (Grey's Anatomy). There's room for a flat-out comedy by this point in the summer (like last year's Click), and I like the odds of this being a surprise hit.

STOCK FALLING

NEXT (Paramount) -- April 27 (Wide)
Kiwi Lee Tamahori is an up-and-down director who has respected arthouse films like Venice Film Festival Winner Once Were Warriors, big-ticket blockbusters like Die Another Day ($160.9 million domestic) and space-filling product like XXX: State of the Union ($25.6 million domestic) all on his resume. For this project, a sci-fi thriller about a man who can see into the future, he's hitched his wagon to Nicolas Cage. Buzz is negative for Ghost Rider, and, if that comic book movie tanks, it will mean that five of Nic's last six films have been bombs (Lord of War, $24.1 million; The Weather Man, $12.4 million; The Ant Bully, $28.1 million; The Wicker Man, $23.6 million), with his only hit being World Trade Center ($70.2 million). There's a nice supporting cast, with Julianne Moore, Jessica Biel and Peter Falk, but an ice-cold Cage could be tough to overcome. Unlikely to be a complete and total bomb, but I'd let somebody else in your league bet on Nic.

THE LAST LEGION (MGM/Weinstein) -- April 27 (Wide)
Director Doug Lefler has some sword-and-sandal work in his background thanks to the Hercules TV series in the mid-'90s, but this sounds like a huge jump in class. It's the story of Romulus Augustus, the last emperor to rule Rome before the empire crumbled. Colin Firth (Girl with a Pearl Earring) plays Augustus, and he is joined by Oscar winner Ben Kingsley in an international cast. The Weinsteins have their name on this, so no expense will be spared when it comes to marketing and promotion, but they have really struggled since leaving Disney. After the success of Troy ($133 million domestic), this genre seemed ripe for exploitation, but Alexander ($34.2 million) and Kingdom of Heaven ($47.3 million) both underwhelmed, and this project has bomb written all over it.

JINDABYNE (Sony Classics) -- April 27 (Limited)
If you're looking for a PTA play, look elsewhere. Based on a Raymond Carver short story, the movie tells the story of an Aussie who goes fishing with two buddies and discovers a dead girl. They keep fishing and report the body days later. Gabriel Byrne (The Usual Suspects) stars and Oscar nominee Laura Linney (Kinsey) plays the wife who loses faith in him after the incident. Directed by Ray Lawrence (Lantana, Bliss), it sounds like it might have the makings of an arthouse hit, but advance word is that it is long and ponderous -- a 24-page story stretched into a 123-minute film.

SPIDER-MAN 3 (Sony) -- May 4 (Wide)
You probably aren't wondering whether you should draft Spider-Man 3. It's one of the most-anticipated films of 2007. If you wind up with a great draft position in your league or you find yourself in a bidding war in an auction league, however, be careful. From a commercial perspective, this one can't miss. Sam Raimi's Spidey films have been extraordinarily well-crafted, and they have a certain earnest sensibility that makes them appropriate for all ages. Of the three monster May sequels, however, I like this one least. The first Spider-Man did $403.7 million domestic and the second did $373 million, but my hunch is that the third outing fails to break $300 million. One of the major problems is that Spidey 3 will be quickly followed by Shrek the Third and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End. To some degree, those films will blunt the web-slinger's upside. The marketplace likes "new," and by the Memorial Day weekend arrival of Pirates,  Spider-Man 3 will be three weeks old.

LUCKY YOU (Warner Bros) -- May 4 (Wide)
This Curtis Hanson World Series of Poker romance/drama has had more release dates than Joan Rivers has had facelifts. That, and there's nothing lucky about opening opposite Spider-Man 3 as "counter-programming." The fact is that since 1997's L.A. Confidential ($64.6 million), Hanson has been responsible for more misses (Wonder Boys, $19.3 million; In Her Shoes, $32.8 million) than hits (8 Mile, $116.7 million). This pic has a great cast with Drew Barrymore, Eric Bana (Munich) and Oscar winner Robert Duvall, but there's no way a movie gets jerked around the release schedule as much as this one has been if it's any good.

28 WEEKS LATER (Fox Atomic) -- May 11 (Wide)
I would feel better about this movie if the great Danny Boyle was directing, instead of just executive producing. The original 28 Days Later scored a cool $45 million, but that was a brilliant reinvention of the killer zombie movie. In the hands of unproven Spaniard Juan Carlos Fresnadillo and with the still unproven marketing moxie of Fox Atomic behind it, this feels like just another generic zombie flick. In the incredibly competitive summer blockbuster season, it's hard to imagine more than $30 million here.

MR. WOODCOCK (New Line) -- May 11 (Wide)
Since the surprise hit Bad Santa did $60 million, Billy Bob Thornton hasn't exactly been Mr. Money. He scored with Friday Night Lights ($61.2 million), but it's been mostly a steady succession of disappointments with The Alamo ($22.4 million), The Bad News Bears ($32.8 million), The Ice Harvest ($9 million) and School For Scoundrels ($17.8 million). With Thornton's next film, The Astronaut Farmer (Warner Bros) due Feb. 23 and looking like another flop, it's probably best to steer clear of Mr. Woodcock. Seann William Scott (Dude, Where’s My Car?) plays a kid who'd like to keep his mom (Susan Sarandon) from marrying his old gym teacher (Billy Bob Thornton). Given the film's unproven writers and the ho-hum participation of first-time feature director Craig Gillespie, a veteran of TV commercials, there's really no compelling reason to have this movie on your slate.

DELTA FARCE (Lionsgate) -- May 11 (Wide)
From first-time screenwriters Bear Aderhold and Tom Sullivan, this is a comedy about three Army reservists bound for Iraq who are accidentally dropped in Mexico, where they decide to "liberate" a small village from corrupt Federales. No stars here unless you count Larry The Cable Guy, DJ Qualls (Hustle & Flow), Keith David (ATL) or standup comic Lisa Lampanelli. This is one of those movies that feels uncomfortably disconnected from what's happening in the real world. I don't think most people are ready to laugh at jokes about incompetent American soldiers or the "liberation" of oppressed peoples.

FAY GRIM (Magnolia) -- May 18 (Limited)
In 1998, writer-director Hal Hartley's Henry Fool arrived in theatres with spectacular reviews, but it sold very few tickets ($1.3 million domestic). Now, almost a decade later, comes a sequel of sorts. Parker Posey (Scream 3, For Your Consideration) plays Henry's wife, Fay, who becomes involved in the CIA's search for Henry's journals. Also stars Jeff Goldblum. I'm a huge Parker Posey fan and Henry Fool is a fine (though overrated) movie, but I'm not sure that the world has been waiting for a sequel. Plus, early reviews describe the picture as a muddled mess.

PAPRIKA (Sony Classics) -- May 25 (Limited)
This is a Japanese anime film about a femme fatale named Paprika who is trying to recover a machine that allows doctors to enter a patient's dreams. I'm not an anime fan, but the genre does have its hardcore followers. Not enough of them, unfortunately, to make this picture worth owning. Occasionally, a major distributor will get behind an anime film like Spirited Away (Buena Vista, $10 million domestic) or Howl's Moving Castle (Buena Vista, $4.7 million domestic), but for the most part these pictures fail to attract an audience. Paprika is unlikely to top $1 million.

GRACIE (Picturehouse) -- June 1 (Wide)
Davis Guggenheim has had an eclectic career. He is responsible for the awful teen thriller Gossip back in 2000. He's also helmed a lot of episodes of the best shows on television including 24, Deadwood, The Shield and Alias. And, most recently, he directed An Iconvenient Truth, which has earned him an Academy Award nomination. What is he doing directing a movie about a teen fighting to give women the opportunity to play competitive soccer? Well, he's married to Oscar-winner Elizabeth Shue (Leaving Las Vegas), whose brother is Melrose Place actor and former L.A. Galaxy soccer player Andrew Shue. Carly Schroeder (Firewall, Mean Creek) plays the title character and both Shues and Dermot Mulroney co-star. Occassionally, a soccer film breaks through like Bend It Like Beckham ($32.5 million), but it's a very tough sell. Last year, Goal: The Dream Begins opened on 1,000 screens and wound up grossing $4.2 million domestic. Even Will Ferrell couldn't lift the soccer flick Kicking & Screaming past $52.8 million. I'd stay away from Gracie.

MR. BROOKS (MGM) -- June 1 (Wide)
As I've written before, MGM has really struggled since getting back into the distribution business, especially with non-Weinstein films. This film from director Bruce A. Evans (his last film was the Christian Slater crime caper Kuffs, all the way back in 1992) sounds like a warmed-over Fight Club rehash. Kevin Costner plays a guy who is sometimes controlled by his murder-loving alter ego (played by William Hurt). Demi Moore is the detective trying to catch the killer (yeah, right, plenty of cops look like Demi). This sounds like it could be a very entertaining disaster. Don't get stuck owning it.