Yesterday at 5:45p pacific, based on east coast matinee data and conversations with key industry sources, I forecast that Norbit would score a $8.5-$10 million Friday and $27-$30 million for the 3-day weekend. Based on projection models, that put the bawdy comedy with a total domestic gross in the $80 million range. Now it looks like Norbit will deliver as much as $95-$105 million.

Meanwhile, the latest outing for the Hannibal Lecter character, a prequel called Hannibal Rising, tailed off badly in Friday night business. Perhaps hardcore Hannibal fans showed up for matinees making the film seem like it was doing better than it really was. The Peter Webber-directed thriller delivered $4.7 million on Friday as opposed to the $7-$8.5 million I projected early last night. Instead of today the anticipated $19-$22 million I called for, it’ll be $13.5 million for the world’s favorite serial killer.

Hannibal Rising was always a high-risk project for MGM/Weinstein. This is Hannibal Lecter, the early years. No Anthony Hopkins. Instead, virtually-unknown French actor Gaspard Ulliel (A Very Long Engagement) plays Hannibal, and the only other names in the cast are Rhys Ifans (Notting Hill, Enduring Love) and Gong Li (Miami Vice, Curse of the Golden Flower). Additionally, it is the first time that Thomas Harris has adapted one of his own novels for the screen. It now appears that this film will score only $30-$35 million in its domestic theatrical release.

This is the fifth big screen outing for the Lecter character, and this will be only the 4th  best Hannibal Lecter opening weekend, behind Hannibal, Red Dragon and Silence of the Lambs meaning that this may be the final film chapter for the good doctor.

1986 - Manhunter - $2.2 million opening weekend - $8.6 million cume
1991 - Silence of the Lambs - $13.7 million opening weekend - $130.7 cume
2001 - Hannibal - $58 million opening weekend - $165.1 million cume
2002 - Red Dragon - $36.5 million opening weekend - $93.1 million cume.

Holdover Because I Said So (Universal) will finish 3rd for the weekend with $9 million, followed by The Messengers (Sony) with $7.2 million and the unstoppable Night at the Museum (Fox) at $5.2 million.

Here are our Saturday Morning Updated 3-Day Estimates followed by my Exclusive FantasyMoguls.com Early 3-Day Estimates posted Friday at 5:45p:

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
- as of 9a pacific on Saturday -
1. Norbit (Paramount) - $32.5 million
2. Hannibal Rising (MGM/Weinstein) - $13.5 million
3. Because I Said So (Universal) - $9 million
4. The Messengers (Sony) - $7.2 million
5. Night at the Museum (Fox) - $5.2 million
6. Epic Movie (Fox) - $4.5 million
7. Smokin’ Aces (Universal) - $3.7 million
8. Pan’s Labrynth (Picturehouse) - $3.2 million
9. Dreamgirls (Paramount/Dreamworks) - $2.8 million
10. Stomp the Yard (Sony) - $2.2 million
10. The Pursuit of Happyness - $2.2 million

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
- as of 5:45p pacific on Friday -
1. Norbit (Paramount) - $27-$30 million
2. Hannibal Rising (MGM/Weinstein) - $19-$22 million
3. Because I Said So (Universal) - $6.5-$8 million
4. The Messengers (Sony) - $6-$7.5 million
5. Night at the Museum (Fox) - $4-$5.5 million
6. Epic Movie (Fox) - $2-$3 million
7. Smokin’ Aces (Universal) - $2-$3 million
8. Pan’s Labrynth (Picturehouse) - $2-$2.75 million
9. Dreamgirls (Paramount/Dreamworks) - $2-$2.5 million
10. The Queen (Miramax) - $1.7-$2 million

In the PTA race, The Lives of Others (Sony Classics), an Oscar nominee for Best Foreign Language Film, had a terrific opening with $4,400 per screen at 8 locations. Norbit was second with an astounding $4,000 per followed by Factory Girl (MGM/Weinstein) expanding to 18 locations and delivering a PTA of $3,000. Here is the PTA Top 10.

FRIDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. The Lives of Others (Sony Classics) – 8 locations - $4,400 PTA
2. Norbit (Paramount) – 3,136 locations - $4,000 PTA
3. Factory Girl (MGM/Weinstein) – 18 locations - $3,000 PTA
4. An Unreasonable Man (IFC Films) – 4 locations - $2,170 PTA
5. Hannibal Rising (MGM/Weinstein) – 3,003 locations - $1,887 PTA
6. Inland Empire (518 Media) – 10 locations - $1,583 PTA
7. Because I Said So (Universal) – 2,529 locations - $1,223 PTA
8. Breaking & Entering (MGM/Weinstein) – 22 locations - $1,081 PTA
9. The Messengers (Sony) – 2,529 locations - $1,017 PTA
10. Venus (Miramax) – 132 locations - $919 PTA