Sony's streak began in 2001, when The Wedding Planner debuted with a three-day take of $13.5 million. On Super Bowl weekend in 2002, no strong titles opened and the Sony pic Black Hawk Down, in its sixth week, managed $11.1 million for the win. They won with horror in 2003 (Darkness Falls, $12 million), and with an urban dance film in 2004 (You Got Served, $16.1 million), before taking the last two Big Game weekends with Boogeyman ($19 million) and When A Stranger Calls ($21.6 million). It's worth noting that When A Stranger Calls set the record for best opening for a film in history on Super Bowl weekend.

Bottom line? Betting against Sony on Super Bowl weekend is about as smart as predicting Rex Grossman will deliver a better quarterback rating than Peyton Manning on Sunday. Despite all of this, I'm picking Universal and the Bears to be the winners come Monday morning.

One thing is clear. Super Bowl weekend is generally won by either a horror movie or a chick flick. Here are the Top 5 movies for each of the past 11 Super Bowl weekends (along with Week 1 titles that missed the Top 5):

Jan. 26-28 1996
1. Mr. Holland's Opus (Buena Vista) -- Week 3, $8.2 million
2. Bed of Roses (New Line) -- Week 1, $6.1 million
3. From Dusk 'til Dawn (Miramax) -- Week 2, $4.8 million
4. 12 Monkeys (Universal) -- Week 5, $3.9 million
5. Eye For An Eye (Paramount) -- Week 3, $3.5 million
*Screamers (Sony) -- Week 1, $2.9 million

Jan. 24-26 1997
1. Jerry Maguire (Sony) -- Week 7, $5.5 million
2. In Love and War (New Line) -- Week 3, $5.489 million
3. Beverly Hills Ninja (Sony) -- Week 2, $5.481 million
4. Metro (Buena Vista) -- Week 2, $5.47 million
5. Evita (Buena Vista) -- Week 5, $5.41 million
*Fierce Creatures (Universal) -- Week 1, $3,7 million
*Zeus & Roxanne (MGM) -- Week 1, $2.7 million

Jan. 23-25 1998
1. Titanic (Paramount) -- Week 6, $25.2 million
2. Spice World (Sony) -- Week 1, $10.5 million
3.  Good Will Hunting (Miramax) -- Week 8, $8.5 million
4. As Good As It Gets (Sony) -- Week 5, $7.5 million
5. Fallen (Warner Bros.) -- Week 2, $4.9 million
*Phantoms (Miramax) -- Week 1, $3 million

Jan. 29-31 1999
1. She's All That (Miramax) -- Week 1, $16 million
2. Patch Adams (Universal) -- Week 6, $6 million
3. Varsity Blues (Paramount) -- Week 3, $5.9 million
4. A Civil Action (Buena Vista) -- Week 6, $4.7 million
5. Shakespeare in Love (Weinstein) -- Week 8, $4 million

Jan. 28-30 2000
1. Eye of the Beholder (Destination) -- Week 1, $5.9 million
2. Next Friday (New Line) -- Week 3, $5.7 million
3. The Hurricane (Universal) -- Week 5, $5.7 million
4. Stuart Little (Universal -- Week 7, $4.7 million
5. The Green Mile (Warner Bros.) -- Week 8, $4 million
*Isn’t She Great (Universal) -- Week 1, $1.3 million

Jan. 26-28 2001
1. The Wedding Planner (Sony) -- Week 1, $13.5 million
2. Save the Last Dance (Paramount) -- Week 3, $9.7 million
3. Cast Away (Fox) -- Week 6, $8 million
4. Traffic (USA Films) -- Week 5, $6.4 million
5. Sugar & Spice (New Line) -- Week 1, $5.9 million

Feb. 1-3 2002
1. Black Hawk Down (Sony) -- Week 6, $11.1 million
2. Snow Dogs (Buena Vista) -- Week 3, $10.1 million
3. A Walk To Remember (Warner Bros.) -- Week 2, $8.8 million
4. The Count of Monte Cristo (Buena Vista) -- Week 2, $8.7 million
5. A Beautiful Mind (Universal) -- Week 7, $8.4 million
*Slackers (Sony) -- Week 1, $2.7 million
*Birthday Girl (Miramax) -- Week 1, $2.3 million

Jan. 24-26 2003
1. Darkness Falls (Sony) -- Week 1, $12 million
2. Kangaroo Jack (Warner Bros.) -- Week 2, $11.5 million
3. Chicago (Miramax) -- Week 5, $8.2 million
4. National Security (Sony) -- Week 2, $7.3 million
5. Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (New Line) -- Week 6, $6.6 million

Jan. 30 –Feb. 1 2004
1. You Got Served (Sony) -- Week 1, $16.1 million
2. Butterfly Effect (New Line) -- Week 2, $9.5 million
3. Along Came Polly (Universal) -- Week 3, $9.3 million
4. Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (New Line) -- Week 7, $5.3 million
5. The Perfect Score (Paramount) -- Week 1, $4.8 million
*The Big Bounce (Warner Bros.) -- Week 1, $3.3 million

Feb. 4-6 2005
1. Boogeyman (Sony) -- Week 1, $19 million
2. The Wedding Date (Universal) -- Week 1, $11.1 million
3. Are We There Yet? (Sony) -- Week 3, $10.6 million
4. Hide & Seek (Fox) -- Week 2, $8.9 million
5. Million Dollar Baby (Weinstein) -- Week 8, $8.7 million

Feb. 3-5 2006
1. When A Stranger Calls (Sony) -- Week 1, $21.6 million
2. Big Momma's House 2 (Fox) -- Week 2, $13.6 million
3. Nanny McPhee (Universal) -- Week 2, $9.7 million
4. Brokeback Mountain (Focus) -- Week 9, $6 million
5. Hoodwinked (Weinstein) – Week 4 - $5.3 million
*Something New (Focus) -- Week 1, $4.8 million

Looking at the last 11 years, horror has been king on Super Bowl weekend 2004-2006, but movies with female appeal were dominant 1996-2001. I'm including a "soft" film like Mr. Holland's Opus, holdover romantic movies like Titanic and Jerry Maguire, debut "chick flicks" like She's All That and The Wedding Planner and the Ashley Judd drama Eye of the Beholder.

Of the seven chick flicks to debut on Super Friday in the last 11 years, two have won the weekend (The Wedding Planner and She's All That) and three more have finished second (The Wedding Date, Spice World and Bed of Roses). Even including last year's Something New (finished No. 7) and New Line's 2001 picture Sugar & Spice (finished No. 5) gives debuting chick flicks an average rank of 2.85 and an average gross of $9.7 million on Super Bowl weekend.

All of this bodes very well for Universal's Because I Said So, which is tracking strongly with Females Under 25 and Females 25 Plus. Looking at the commercials, it feels like Something's Gotta Give 2, and that's not a bad thing. That Diane Keaton film debuted with $16 million, and although Stephen Collins (7th Heaven) is no Jack Nicholson, both Mandy Moore (A Walk To Remember) and Lauren Graham (The Gilmore Girls) have real followings. I am going to call this the weekend winner with $11-$13 million.

The Messengers (Sony) is the other new release. I'm a huge fan of the Pang Brothers, twin brothers from Hong Kong responsible for the very creepy Chinese language film The Eye, but we've already seen three generic horror films this year fail to crack $10 million on opening weekend. My hunch is that the horror genre is in for a tough year. Just because the Under 25s see some commercials on MTV, they're not going to show up for scary movies unless they're good. The Messengers didn't screen for critics or press, and I think, in this case, it's a bad sign.  The teens who left Primeval, The Hitcher and Blood & Chocolate disappointed aren't going to be in any mood for a leap of faith here. The tracking looks decent with Under 25 Males, but that's the only real strength, and kids aren't going to show up to see Dylan McDermott (The Practice), John Corbett (My Big Fat Greek Wedding) or Penelope Ann Miller (The Relic).  Don't ever underestimate Sony, but this feels like $8-$10 million to me.

Here's my projected Top 10 for Super Bowl weekend along with my prediction for Sunday's Super Bowl XLI in Miami:

1. Because I Said So (Universal) -- $12.1 million
2. Smokin' Aces (Universal) -- $9.5 million
3. The Messengers (Sony) -- $9.3 million
4. Epic Movie (Fox) -- $9 million
5. Night At the Museum (Fox) -- $6.9 million
6. Dreamgirls (Paramount/Dreamworks) -- $5.1 million
7. Catch & Release (Sony) -- $5 million
8. The Pursuit of Happyness (Sony) -- $3.7 million
9. Pan’s Labrynth (Picturehouse) -- $3.6 million
10. The Queen (Miramax) -- $3.5 million

Super Bowl XLI
Bears 27, Colts 24

With the exception of that last drive against New England, Peyton Manning has had a very subpar postseason (just 2 touchdown passes). All the talk about how bad Rex Grossman has been will actually help him. People's expectations are so low for him that he can't help but exceed them. Indy will stop the run, but Grossman throws a great deep ball, and he'll find Bernard Berrian at least once for a TD. Manning will throw a couple of picks. Chicago's defense will score. It'll be a great game, but Lovie will top Dungy 27-24.