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Advice & Analysis: Weekly Tracking

Advice & Analysis: Reviews

March 30, 2007

EARLY ROUGH NUMBERS: 'Robinsons' Stronger Than Expected

by Steve Mason

It’s very early, and these numbers are very preliminary, but there may be an upset brewing at America's multiplexes. A studio source is telling me that both Blades of Glory (Paramount) and Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) are opening strongly, but Robinsons may have the advantage.

The Disney animated picture, which had softer-than-expected tracking, may now be on pace to deliver an estimated $31-$35 million over the weekend, compared to $29-$33 million for the Ferrell/Heder skating satire. The other new film opening today is Miramax’s well-reviewed The Lookout, which is expected to do no better than $2-$3 million for its opening weekend.

Studios take early raw data for films and compare it to historical data for comparable films. The numbers are then refined all weekend long, and they become more accurate as the weekend moves along. At this point, either Robinsons or Blades could win, but the Disney film will definitely finish the weekend better than industry expectations. Come back to FantasyMoguls.com for updates throughout the evening and all weekend.

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Posted at 04:33 PM in Advice and Analysis, Live Weekend Estimates, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent, Weekly Tracking | Permalink

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