Shooter (Paramount), starring Oscar nominee Mark Wahlberg and directed by Antoine Fuqua (Training Day), appears to be the strongest title. It is the First Choice of 10 percent of moviegoers, with 10 percent of Males Under 25 and 18 percent of Males 25 Plus. It is even the second choice of Women 25 Plus with eight percent. That should put Shooter in the $18-$23 million range.

Kiddie pics are a bit problematic in industry tracking. Kids and tweens aren't generally surveyed (at least not accurately), so tracking results don't tell the whole story. Warner Bros.'s new animated Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles is the First Choice of 5 percent of those surveyed.  I'm told that Males Under 25 are at nine percent and Females Under 25 are at six percent. When added to the unsurveyed kiddie audience, you've got to figure that there's at least $18 million here, and, if a lot of kids drag their parents to multiplexes, TMNT can certainly go much higher.

The second best overall First Choice number is seven percent, and it belongs to The Hills Have Eyes 2 (Fox Atomic). My sources say that Hills is tracking well with Under 25s -- 12 percent of Males and nine percent of Females. $15 million feels about right given these numbers.

Sneak previews and marketing are beginning to pay off for The Last Mimzy (New Line). It's not tracking through the roof, but it's performing better than two weeks ago, when it had zeroes across the board. I'm told that Mimzy's First Choice number is now at five percent, and it's the First Choice of eight percent of Females 25 Plus. That means that moms are planning to take the kids to see this sci-fi/fantasy yarn this weekend. The numbers suggest an $8-12 million haul.

Adam Sandler's 9/11 film Reign Over Me (Sony) is surprisingly soft in the most recent tracking, although Sandler's presence makes this pic the ultimate wild card. Females 25 Plus are excited about Reign, which has 12 percent in that quadrant, but the movie is the First Choice of only five percent of moviegoers overall. On the upside, the film has the second-best definite interest number at 34 percent, meaning that if Sony does their job this week, the picture has a chance to break out. In the end, this looks like $12-$15 million, but there could be a possible upside surprise.

Trailing the field is Pride (Lionsgate), the inspirational inner-city swimming movie starring Oscar nominee Terrence Howard. With an overall First Choice number of just two percent and sub-five percent marks in all four quadrants, this flick will likely fall in the $4-$7 million range.