2001 -- Zoolander, $15.5 million opening/$45.2 million cume
2003 -- Old School, $17.4 million opening/$75.6 million cume
2004 -- Anchorman, $28.4 million opening/$85.2 million cume
2006 -- Talladega Nights, $47 million opening/$148.2 million cume

These are movies that guys love. We quote them regularly. Who among us hasn't called for "earmuffs," or joked about playing the jazz flute ("Hey, Aqualung"), or exclaimed, "I'm in a glass case of emotion," or prayed to "Baby Jesus" or talked about "break-dance fighting." (I could go on and on.) For the average 18-45 year old male, Will Ferrell walks on water. He's taken a stab with family movies, and scored there too.

2003 -- Elf, $31.1 million opening/$173.4 million cume
2006 -- Curious George, $14.7 million opening/$58.3 million cume

Of course, there was that forgettable 2005 for Ferrell:

2005 -- Kicking & Screaming, $20.1 million opening/$52.8 million cume
2005 -- Bewitched, $20.1 million opening/$63.3 million cume
2005 -- Winter Passing, $28,000 opening/$107,000 cume
2005 -- The Producers, $154,000 opening/$19.4 million cume

Even that year, however, was nearly saved by a goofy cameo in Wedding Crashers ($33.9 million opening/$209.2 million cume). As demonstrated by his Golden Globe nomination last year for Stranger Than Fiction ($13.4 million opening/$40.4 million cume), Will is interested in doing serious work. Thankfully, Blades of Glory is pure comedy in the weird Ferrell tradition. This time, he's been paired up with Napoleon Dynamite star Jon Heder, and the result is a film that is tracking like a monster.

Blades will enter the weekend with a double-digit First Choice number, and my sources tell me that this is a four-quadrant movie. That means that the film will draw from Males Under 25, Males Over 25, Females Under 25 and Females Over 25 -- double digits across the board. In case you haven't heard, women of all ages dig figure skating, so don't be surprised if your Mom sees this picture on opening weekend. There is no way that it debuts with less than $35 million, and I say the smart money is on Paramount getting this picture into the $40 million range for its opening weekend.

The other blockbuster landing on Friday is Buena Vista’s Meet the Robinsons. Disney knows how to do animation, and this one has the added plus of having been shot in Digital 3-D. It's based on a popular children's book, and sounds like a sweet story. An orphan boy, Lewis, invents a machine called a "memory scanner" to help him find his birth mother, but the device is stolen by a heavy known as "The Bowler Hat Guy." Along comes Wilbur Robinson, who takes Lewis for a ride in his time machine to catch the bad guy.

Director Stephen J. Anderson drew inspiration from an unlikely source. Bill Joyce, who illustrated the original children's book, recommended that Anderson look at Frank Capra's Best Picture-winning You Can't Take It With You (based on the George S. Kaufman/Moss Hart Pulitzer Prize-winning play). Hence, Meet the Robinsons is filled with lovable oddballs that echo those in the classic play and movie.
Of course, the kids that show up at the multiplex this weekend will not be talking about Kaufman, Hart or even Anderson for that matter.

As always, tracking is incredibly unreliable when it comes to kiddie pics. The tracking services just don’t accurately survey kids and tweens. Still, tracking figures are very healthy here, and, unlike with TMNT this past weekend, parents are more likely to buy a ticket for and enjoy Meet the Robinsons. Realistically, this picture could come in anywhere from $25-$45 million, which is a huge range, but I'll have a better feel by Thursday's Weekend Tracking article. For now, I think Blades will win the weekend and Robinsons will be a strong second, with both movies in the $30-$45 million range.

It's hard to say what impact Digital 3-D will have on Robinsons. At theatres with Disney Digital 3-D, the film will probably generate as much as three times the per-theatre average as conventional houses. Disney is claiming that between 600-700 locations are now equipped with the system, but some in the industry doubt this claim. Last Halloween, Tim Burton's 1993 The Nightmare Before Christmas opened at 168 locations with Disney Digital 3-D and scored approximately $8 million. If Disney really does have 700 locations with 3-D, it could give the movie a substantial boost (although the vast majority of the country will have to settle for 2-D).

The other new release this weekend is The Lookout (Miramax). Joseph Gordon-Levitt is a terrific actor who I've had the pleasure of interviewing several times over the years. As a kid, he was fantastic in the underrated Angels in the Outfield and excellent in Robert Redford's A River Runs Through It. Then came Third Rock From the Sun on NBC, which, to some degree, typecast him as a quirky, comic actor. At the 2005 Sundance Film Festival, I saw him in two amazing performances. He was brilliant in Gregg Araki’s Mysterious Skin, and just as good in the teen noir Brick. Needless to say, I'm a fan, and I believe that this guy has the potential to be one of the great actors of his generation. He's gifted and fearless about the roles he chooses. That makes him someone to follow.

Unfortunately, I'm told that The Lookout is a tracking disaster. Awareness for this picture, opening on about 1,000 screens on Friday, is very low. It's too bad, because reviews are coming in very positive. Writer and first-time director Scott Frank (he wrote Out of Sight) has given Gordon-Levitt a fascinating role -- a brain-damaged janitor who becomes part of a bank heist plot -- but it would be a miracle for this little pic to top $4 million for the weekend. It's best shot for success is to ride great reviews to a nice PTA showing, which will entice Miramax to muster an expansion.