Wild Hogs is the 3rd consecutive $20 million plus opening weekend for both John Travolta and Martin Lawrence. For Travolta, Hogs follows 2004’s Ladder 49 ($22 million) and Be Cool ($23.4 million) in 2005. Meanwhile, Lawrence is coming off of last year’s Open Season ($23.6 million) and Big Momma’s House 2 ($27.7 million). After the mildly disappointing The Shaggy Dog ($16.3 million opening weekend - $61.1 million cume) and the disastrous Zoom ($11.9 million cume), Tim Allen has now scored 2 hits in a row following November’s The Santa Clause 3 ($19.5 million opening weekend - $84.5 million cume). The forth member of the Harley-riding quartet, William H. Macy, is in a different league. Hogs will be his biggest hit since Sahara ($18 million opening weekend - $68.6 million cume).

As expected, David Fincher’s Zodiac (Paramount) will finish 2nd for the weekend with an estimated 3-day of 14.1 million after scoring $4.5 million on Friday. If you’ve read the review I posted earlier this week, you know I love the film, but it is clearly being hurt by its 160 minute running time. Zodiac is at 2,362 locations compared to 3,287 for Wild Hogs, but Paramount is trying to make up for the difference with multiple prints at over 700 locations. If my numbers hold up, this will be the 4th-best opening for a Fincher-directed film on par with his movie The Game.

Panic Room - $30 million opening weekend - $96.3 million cume
Alien 3 - $19.4 million opening weekend - $55.4 million cume
The Game - $14.3 million opening weekend - $48.3 million cume
Se7en - $13.9 million opening weekend - $100.1 million cume
Fight Club - $11 million opening weekend - $37 million cume

The third spot for the weekend will be won by Ghost Rider (Sony). In its 3rd week, Johnny Blaze picked up an estimated $3 million to start the weekend, and that should translate to $10.3 million for the 3-day and a cume of $83.2 million. Bridge To Terabithia (Buena Vista) delivered an estimated $2 million Friday, but with a nice kiddie bounce on Saturday and Sunday, the fantasy film, based on the Newbery Medal-winning children’s novel, should deliver $7.7 million for the weekend. Meanwhile, The Number 23 (New Line) looks like it is stumbling badly in its second weekend. After an estimated $2.1 million Friday, it will bank only an estimated $7.25 by Monday morning.

The other new wide release Black Snake Moan (Paramount Vantage) will not be breaking any box office records. At 1,252 locations, the new film from Hustle & Flow director Craig Brewer managed only an estimated $1.3 million in Friday business, and it will likely finish the weekend with no more than $4.2 million.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) - $10.8 million
2. Zodiac (Paramount) - $4.5 million
3. Ghost Rider (Sony) - $3 million
4. The Number 23 (New Line) - $2.1 million
5. Bridge To Terabithia (Buena Vista) - $2 million
6. Norbit (Paramount) - $1.8 million
7. Music & Lyrics (Warner Bros) - $1.7 million
8. Black Snake Moan (Paramount Vantage) - $1.3 million
9. Reno 911!: Miami (Fox) - $1.2 million
10. Breach (Universal) - $1 million

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) - $31.5 million [$31.5 million cume]
2. Zodiac (Paramount) - $14.1 million [$14.1 million cume]
3. Ghost Rider (Sony) - $10.3 million [$83.2 million cume]
4. Bridge To Terabithia - $7.7 million [$57 million cume]
5. The Number 23 (New Line) - $7.25 million [$24.8 million cume]
6. Norbit (Paramount) - $7.1 million [$83.6 million cume]
7. Music & Lyrics (Warner Bros) - $6.9 million [$40.7 million cume]
8. Black Snake Moan (Paramount Vantage) - $4.2 million [$4.2 million cume]
9. Reno 911!: Miami (Fox) - $3.9 million [$16.5 million cume]
10. Breach (Universal) - $3.2 million [$25.1 million cume]