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Advice & Analysis: Reviews

March 10, 2007

EXCLUSIVE EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES: '300' with $60 million; Spartan War Epic 3rd Biggest R-Rated Opening and 2nd Biggest March Opening; 'Hogs' Still Strong with $27.8 million

by Steve Mason

The weekend belongs to Zack Snyder’s 300 (Warner Bros), which is fulfilling the months of internet buzz, marketing hype and fanboy anticipation with a $25.5 million Friday and an estimated 3-day gross of $60 million.

The bloody, violent, over-the-top, R-rated war picture adapted from Frank Miller’s graphic novel got an early start with 12:01am screenings across the country including IMAX locations. My sources have indicated that 300 broke the midnight IMAX box office record set by last Summer’s Superman Returns, another Warner Bros. release. 300 will almost certainly smash the opening weekend IMAX record of $5 million set by Superman Returns. Batman Begins, also from Warner Bros., is the 3rd best IMAX opening weekend with $3.1 million.

If my numbers for this Spartan war epic hold, this will be the all-time 3rd best opening weekend for an R-rated movie:

1. The Matrix Reloaded - $91.7 million
2. Passion of the Christ - $83.8 million
3. 300 - $60 million
4. Hannibal - $58 million
5. 8 Mile - $51.2 million

By Monday morning, 300 will also be the all-time 2nd best opening weekend for a March release trailing only Ice Age 2: The Meltdown:

1. Ice Age 2: The Meltdown - $68 million
2. 300 - $60 million
3. Ice Age - $46.3 million

The poorly-reviewed Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) will take the #2 spot with $7.5 million on Friday. That should translate to a far better-than-expected 3-day of $27.8 million. Bridge To Terabithia (Buena Vista) added $1.7 million to kick-off the weekend and will have banked another $7.4 million by Monday morning good for 3rd. Ghost Rider (Sony) will finish 4th with an estimated $7 million after the Nicolas Cage vehicle picked up $1.9 million Friday. Meanwhile, David Fincher’s Zodiac (Paramount) continues to disappoint with $1.9 million Friday and an estimated $6.6 million for the weekend, which is enough to round out the Top 5.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. 300 (Warner Bros) - $25.5 million
2. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) - $ 7.5 million
3. Ghost Rider (Sony) - $2 million
4. Zodiac (Paramount) 1.9
5. Bridge To Terabithia (Buena Vista) - $1.7
6. Norbit (Paramount) - $1.3 million
7. Music & Lyrics (Warner Bros) - $1.2 million
8. The Number 23 (New Line) - $1.1 million
9. Black Snake Moan (Paramount Vantage) - $1 million
10. Breach (Universal) - $700,000

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. 300 (Warner Bros) - $60 million
2. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) - $27.8 million
3. Bridge To Terabithia (Buena Vista) - $7.4 million
4. Ghost Rider (Sony) - $7 million
5. Zodiac (Paramount) - $6.6 million
6. Norbit (Paramount) – $4.1 million
7. Music & Lyrics (Warner Bros) - $3.1 million
8. The Number 23 (New Line) - $3 million
9. Black Snake Moan (Paramount Vantage) - $2.6 million
10. Breach (Universal) - $1.6 million

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Posted at 12:50 AM in Advice and Analysis, Live Weekend Estimates, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent, Weekly Tracking | Permalink

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Comments

Lester Hayes

I really like the way you handle your business Mason. Great Report!

Posted by: Lester Hayes | March 10, 2007 at 08:57 AM

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