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Advice & Analysis: Reviews

March 31, 2007

EXCLUSIVE EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES: 'Blades' to Win w/$36.5 million; All-Time 2nd Best Ferrell Opening; 'Robinsons' 2nd with $30 mil

by Steve Mason

Will Ferrell and Jon Heder will hold off the hard-charging Robinsons for a narrower-than-expected weekend victory. Blades of Glory (Paramount) has delivered an impressive $13 million today (Friday, 3/30), and it will likely score an estimated $36.5 million by Monday morning. Meanwhile, Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) may be getting a boost from the 600+ locations offering the animated film in Disney Digital 3D. Based on a popular children’s book, the family pic scored $8 million on its opening day, which, after a nice weekend matinee bounce, should translate to a 3-day of approximately $30 million.

For Ferrell, Blades will become the 2nd biggest opening weekend of his career, behind only last year’s Talladega Nights:

1. Talladega Nights – $47 million
2. Blades of Glory - $36.5 million
3. Wedding Crashers - $33.9 million
4. Elf – $31.1 million
5. Anchorman – $28.4 million

Meet the Robinsons becomes the best opening for an animated film in 2007 topping last weekend’s TMNT ($24.25 million). Compare the Robinsons’ opening to the Top 5 Openings for Animated Films in 2006:

1. Ice Age: The Meltdown - $68,033,000
2. Cars - $60,119,000
3. Happy Feet - $41,533,000
4. Over the Hedge - $38,457,000
5. Monster House - $22,217,000

For a studio like Disney, with a rich animated history, a $30 million opening weekend may come as a bit of a disappointment. In fact, if the numbers hold up, Meet the Robinsons will be only the 12th-best animated opening in the studio’s history.

1. The Incredibles - $70.4 million
2. Finding Nemo - $70.2 million
3. Monsters Inc. - $62.5 million
4. Cars - $60.1 million
5. Toy Story 2 - $57.3 million (first wide weekend)
6. The Lion King - $40.8 (first wide weekend)
7. Chicken Little - $40 million
8. Dinosaur - $38.8 million
9. Lilo & Stitch - $35.2 million
10. Tarzan - $34.2 million
11. A Bug’s Life - $33.2 million (first wide weekend)
12. Meet the Robinsons - $30 million
13. Toy Story - $29.1 million
14. Hercules - $21.4 million (first wide weekend)
15. The Hunchback of Notre Dame - $21 million

Spartan war epic 300 (Warner Bros) added another $3.6 million to kick off the weekend, and it’ll likely bank another $12 million over the weekend, a 40% drop. That will give the Zack Snyder-directed blockbuster a total haul of $168.5 million. The Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) are continuing their astounding run with an anticipated 4th place finish. The Travolta/Lawrence/Allen/Macy buddy comedy delivered $2.7 million Friday, and it’ll finish the weekend with $9.3 million.

Rounding out the Top 5, TMNT (Warner Bros) is taking a tremendous 65% 2nd weekend tumble with a $2.6 million Friday and an estimated $8.4 million for the 3-day. In the #6 spot is Shooter (Paramount), starring Mark Wahlberg, with $2.5 million on Friday and an estimated $8 million by Monday morning.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Blades of Glory (Paramount) - $13 million
2. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) – $8 million
3. 300 (Warner Bros) - $3.6 million
4. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) - $2.7 million
5. TMNT (Warner Bros) – $2.6 million
6. Shooter (Paramount) - $2.5 million
7. Premonition (Sony) - $1.9 million
8. Reign Over Me (Sony) - $1.75 million
9. The Hills Have Eyes 2 (Fox Atomic) - $1.5 million
10. The Last Mimzy (New Line) - $1.4 million
*The Lookout (Miramax) - $700,000

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Blades of Glory (Paramount) - $36.5 [$36.5 million cume]
2. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) – $30 million [$30 million cume]
3. 300 (Warner Bros) - $12 million [$168.5 million cume]
4. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) - $9.3 [$136.25 million cume]
5. TMNT (Warner Bros) – $8.4 million [$37.6 million cume]
6. Shooter (Paramount) - $8 million [$27.2 million cume]
7. Premonition (Sony) - $5.1 million [$39.3 million cume]
8. Reign Over Me (Sony) - $4.5 million [$14.1 million cume]
9. The Last Mimzy (New Line) - $4.2 million [$16.4 million]
10. The Hills Have Eyes 2 (Fox Atomic) - $3.7 million [$15.5 million cume]
*The Lookout (Miramax) - $2.3 million [$2.3 million cume]

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Comments

Laura

Will Ferrell is a functioning alchoholic who will be joining the ranks of the other girls Lindsay and Britney.

Posted by: Laura | March 31, 2007 at 05:24 AM

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