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Advice & Analysis: Weekly Tracking

Advice & Analysis: Reviews

March 31, 2007

UPDATED 3-DAY ESTIMATES: 'Blades' Revised Upward to $40 mil; All-Time 2nd Best Ferrell Opening; 'Robinsons' Now Distant 2nd at $25 mil

by Steve Mason

Will Ferrell and Jon Heder have officially grabbed the box office gold. Late last night my studio sources were forecasting a narrower-than-expected weekend victory for Blades of Glory (Paramount) over Disney’s Meet the Robinsons, but it now appears to be the blowout I called for in my original weekend tracking article on Thursday. Blades delivered an impressive $12 million on Friday, and it will likely score an estimated $40 million by Monday morning. Meanwhile, Robinsons falls into the “mildly disappointing” category despite a boost from the 600+ locations offering the animated film in Disney Digital 3D. Based on a popular children’s book, the family pic scored $8 million on its opening day, which, after a nice weekend matinee bounce, should translate to a 3-day of approximately $25 million.

For Ferrell, Blades is the 2nd biggest opening weekend of his career, behind only last year’s Talladega Nights:

1. Talladega Nights – $47 million

2. Blades of Glory - $40 million

3. Wedding Crashers - $33.9 million

4. Elf – $31.1 million

5. Anchorman – $28.4 million

Meet the Robinsons will possibly score the best opening for an animated film in 2007 topping last weekend’s TMNT ($24.25 million) – but it’s going to be very close. Compare the Robinsons’ opening to the Top 5 Openings for Animated Films in 2006:

1. Ice Age: The Meltdown - $68,033,000

2. Cars - $60,119,000

3. Happy Feet - $41,533,000

4. Over the Hedge - $38,457,000

5. Monster House - $22,217,000

For a studio like Disney, with a rich animated history, a $25 million opening weekend barely “moves the needle”. In fact, if the numbers hold up, Meet the Robinsons will be only the 13th-best animated opening in the studio’s history.

1. The Incredibles - $70.4 million

2. Finding Nemo - $70.2 million

3. Monsters Inc. - $62.5 million

4. Cars - $60.1 million

5. Toy Story 2 - $57.3 million (first wide weekend)

6. The Lion King - $40.8 (first wide weekend)

7. Chicken Little - $40 million

8. Dinosaur - $38.8 million

9. Lilo & Stitch - $35.2 million

10. Tarzan - $34.2 million

11. A Bug’s Life - $33.2 million (first wide weekend)

12. Toy Story - $29.1 million

13. Meet the Robinsons - $25 million

14. Hercules - $21.4 million (first wide weekend)

15. The Hunchback of Notre Dame - $21 million

Spartan war epic 300 (Warner Bros) added another $3.4 million to kick off the weekend, and it’ll likely bank another $12 million over the weekend, a 40% drop. That will give the Zack Snyder-directed blockbuster a total haul of $168.5 million. TMNT (Warner Bros) is taking a tremendous 70% 2nd weekend tumble with a $2.52 million Friday and an estimated $9 million for the weekend. The Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) are continuing their astounding run with an anticipated 5th place finish for the 3-day. The Travolta/Lawrence/Allen/Macy buddy comedy delivered $2.45 million Friday, and it’ll finish the weekend with an estimated $8 million. In the #6 spot will be Shooter (Paramount), starring Mark Wahlberg, with $2.5 million on Friday and an estimated 3-day of $7.6 million.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES

1. Blades of Glory (Paramount) - $12 million

2. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) – $8 million

3. 300 (Warner Bros) - $3.4 million

4. TMNT (Warner Bros) – $2.52 million

5. Shooter (Paramount) - $2.5 million

6. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) - $2.45 million

7. Premonition (Sony) - $1.7 million

8. The Hills Have Eyes 2 (Fox Atomic) - $1.3 million

9. Reign Over Me (Sony) - $1.2 million

10. The Last Mimzy (New Line) - $1 million *The Lookout (Miramax) - $700,000

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES

1. Blades of Glory (Paramount) - $40 [$40 million cume]

2. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) – $25 million [$25 million cume]

3. 300 (Warner Bros) - $12 million [$168.5 million cume]

4. TMNT (Warner Bros) – $9 million [$38.2 million cume]

5. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) - $8 [$135 million cume]

6. Shooter (Paramount) - $7.6 million [$26.8 million cume]

7. Premonition (Sony) - $5.7 million [$39.9 million cume]

8. Reign Over Me (Sony) - $4 million [$13.6 million cume]

9. The Last Mimzy (New Line) - $3.8 million [$16 million]

10. The Hills Have Eyes 2 (Fox Atomic) - $3.6 million [$15.4 million cume]

*The Lookout (Miramax) - $2.3 million [$2.3 million cume]

In the PTA Race, ImaginAsian offering Journey From the Fall is holding up well in its second week of release. The Milan Film Festival winner scored a $4,281 PTA at 6 locations Friday, which should translate to an estimated $13,250 per for the weekend. Blades of Glory will likely finish 2nd.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY FRIDAY PTA ESTIMATES

1. Journey From the Fall (ImaginAsian) – 6 locations – $4,281 PTA

2. Blades of Glory (Paramount) – 3,372 locations – $3,578 PTA

3. A Vos Marques…Party (Christal Films) – 77 locations - $3,532 PTA

4. Killer of Sheep (Milestone) – 2 locations – $3,079 PTA

5. After the Wedding (IFC Films) – 5 locations – $2,367 PTA

6. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) – 3,413 locations – $2,236 PTA

7. Radiant City (Odeon Films) – 3 locations - $2,152 PTA

8. The Namesake (Fox Searchlight) – 237 locations - $1,863 PTA

9. Boy Culture (TLA Releasing) – 2 locations - $1,432 PTA

10. 300 (Warner Bros) – 3,004 locations - $1,125 PTA

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES

1. Journey From the Fall (ImaginAsian) – 6 locations – $13,250 PTA

2. Blades of Glory (Paramount) – 3,372 locations – $11,862 PTA

3. A Vos Marques…Party (Christal Films) – 77 locations - $11,750 PTA

4. Killer of Sheep (Milestone) – 2 locations – $9,700 PTA

5. After the Wedding (IFC Films) – 5 locations – $8,125 PTA

6. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) – 3,413 locations – $7,324 PTA

7. Radiant City (Odeon Films) – 3 locations - $6,995 PTA

8. The Namesake (Fox Searchlight) – 237 locations - $6,175 PTA

9. Boy Culture (TLA Releasing) – 2 locations - $4,650 PTA

10. 300 (Warner Bros) – 3,004 locations - $3,994 PTA

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Posted at 12:01 PM in Advice and Analysis, Live Weekend Estimates, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent, Weekly Tracking | Permalink

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Comments

AndrewCalder


Hi,

Your numbers for 300 need updating -- s/be $168.5m + w/e est.

Posted by: AndrewCalder | March 31, 2007 at 09:36 PM

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