UPDATED 3-DAY ESTIMATES: 'Blades' Revised Upward to $40 mil; All-Time 2nd Best Ferrell Opening; 'Robinsons' Now Distant 2nd at $25 mil
by Steve Mason
Will Ferrell and Jon Heder have officially grabbed the box office gold. Late last night my studio sources were forecasting a narrower-than-expected weekend victory for Blades of Glory (Paramount) over Disney’s Meet the Robinsons, but it now appears to be the blowout I called for in my original weekend tracking article on Thursday. Blades delivered an impressive $12 million on Friday, and it will likely score an estimated $40 million by Monday morning. Meanwhile, Robinsons falls into the “mildly disappointing” category despite a boost from the 600+ locations offering the animated film in Disney Digital 3D. Based on a popular children’s book, the family pic scored $8 million on its opening day, which, after a nice weekend matinee bounce, should translate to a 3-day of approximately $25 million.
For Ferrell, Blades is the 2nd biggest opening weekend of his career, behind only last year’s Talladega Nights:
1. Talladega Nights – $47 million
2. Blades of Glory - $40 million
3. Wedding Crashers - $33.9 million
4. Elf – $31.1 million
5. Anchorman – $28.4 million
Meet the Robinsons will possibly score the best opening for an animated film in 2007 topping last weekend’s TMNT ($24.25 million) – but it’s going to be very close. Compare the Robinsons’ opening to the Top 5 Openings for Animated Films in 2006:
1. Ice Age: The Meltdown - $68,033,000
2. Cars - $60,119,000
3. Happy Feet - $41,533,000
4. Over the Hedge - $38,457,000
5. Monster House - $22,217,000
For a studio like Disney, with a rich animated history, a $25 million opening weekend barely “moves the needle”. In fact, if the numbers hold up, Meet the Robinsons will be only the 13th-best animated opening in the studio’s history.
1. The Incredibles - $70.4 million
2. Finding Nemo - $70.2 million
3. Monsters Inc. - $62.5 million
4. Cars - $60.1 million
5. Toy Story 2 - $57.3 million (first wide weekend)
6. The Lion King - $40.8 (first wide weekend)
7. Chicken Little - $40 million
8. Dinosaur - $38.8 million
9. Lilo & Stitch - $35.2 million
10. Tarzan - $34.2 million
11. A Bug’s Life - $33.2 million (first wide weekend)
12. Toy Story - $29.1 million
13. Meet the Robinsons - $25 million
14. Hercules - $21.4 million (first wide weekend)
15. The Hunchback of Notre Dame - $21 million
Spartan war epic 300 (Warner Bros) added another $3.4 million to kick off the weekend, and it’ll likely bank another $12 million over the weekend, a 40% drop. That will give the Zack Snyder-directed blockbuster a total haul of $168.5 million. TMNT (Warner Bros) is taking a tremendous 70% 2nd weekend tumble with a $2.52 million Friday and an estimated $9 million for the weekend. The Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) are continuing their astounding run with an anticipated 5th place finish for the 3-day. The Travolta/Lawrence/Allen/Macy buddy comedy delivered $2.45 million Friday, and it’ll finish the weekend with an estimated $8 million. In the #6 spot will be Shooter (Paramount), starring Mark Wahlberg, with $2.5 million on Friday and an estimated 3-day of $7.6 million.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Blades of Glory (Paramount) - $12 million
2. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) – $8 million
3. 300 (Warner Bros) - $3.4 million
4. TMNT (Warner Bros) – $2.52 million
5. Shooter (Paramount) - $2.5 million
6. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) - $2.45 million
7. Premonition (Sony) - $1.7 million
8. The Hills Have Eyes 2 (Fox Atomic) - $1.3 million
9. Reign Over Me (Sony) - $1.2 million
10. The Last Mimzy (New Line) - $1 million *The Lookout (Miramax) - $700,000
EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Blades of Glory (Paramount) - $40 [$40 million cume]
2. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) – $25 million [$25 million cume]
3. 300 (Warner Bros) - $12 million [$168.5 million cume]
4. TMNT (Warner Bros) – $9 million [$38.2 million cume]
5. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) - $8 [$135 million cume]
6. Shooter (Paramount) - $7.6 million [$26.8 million cume]
7. Premonition (Sony) - $5.7 million [$39.9 million cume]
8. Reign Over Me (Sony) - $4 million [$13.6 million cume]
9. The Last Mimzy (New Line) - $3.8 million [$16 million]
10. The Hills Have Eyes 2 (Fox Atomic) - $3.6 million [$15.4 million cume]
*The Lookout (Miramax) - $2.3 million [$2.3 million cume]
In the PTA Race, ImaginAsian offering Journey From the Fall is holding up well in its second week of release. The Milan Film Festival winner scored a $4,281 PTA at 6 locations Friday, which should translate to an estimated $13,250 per for the weekend. Blades of Glory will likely finish 2nd.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY FRIDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. Journey From the Fall (ImaginAsian) – 6 locations – $4,281 PTA
2. Blades of Glory (Paramount) – 3,372 locations – $3,578 PTA
3. A Vos Marques…Party (Christal Films) – 77 locations - $3,532 PTA
4. Killer of Sheep (Milestone) – 2 locations – $3,079 PTA
5. After the Wedding (IFC Films) – 5 locations – $2,367 PTA
6. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) – 3,413 locations – $2,236 PTA
7. Radiant City (Odeon Films) – 3 locations - $2,152 PTA
8. The Namesake (Fox Searchlight) – 237 locations - $1,863 PTA
9. Boy Culture (TLA Releasing) – 2 locations - $1,432 PTA
10. 300 (Warner Bros) – 3,004 locations - $1,125 PTA
EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. Journey From the Fall (ImaginAsian) – 6 locations – $13,250 PTA
2. Blades of Glory (Paramount) – 3,372 locations – $11,862 PTA
3. A Vos Marques…Party (Christal Films) – 77 locations - $11,750 PTA
4. Killer of Sheep (Milestone) – 2 locations – $9,700 PTA
5. After the Wedding (IFC Films) – 5 locations – $8,125 PTA
6. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) – 3,413 locations – $7,324 PTA
7. Radiant City (Odeon Films) – 3 locations - $6,995 PTA
8. The Namesake (Fox Searchlight) – 237 locations - $6,175 PTA
9. Boy Culture (TLA Releasing) – 2 locations - $4,650 PTA
10. 300 (Warner Bros) – 3,004 locations - $3,994 PTA


Hi,
Your numbers for 300 need updating -- s/be $168.5m + w/e est.
Posted by: AndrewCalder | March 31, 2007 at 09:36 PM