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Advice & Analysis: Weekly Tracking

Advice & Analysis: Reviews

March 29, 2007

WEEKEND TRACKING UPDATE: 'Blades' Projects As Weekend Winner Over 'Robinsons' with more than $40m

by Steve Mason

As of Tuesday, I was calling for both Blades of Glory (Paramount) and Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) to finish this weekend in the $30-$40 million range. My studio sources have filled me in on the latest industry tracking, and I'm now prepared to project Blades as the weekend winner.

Blades and Robinsons both have a 75 percent Total Aware number, which is spectacular, but the Will Ferrell/Jon Heder skating satire leads Disney's animated flick 38 percent-29 percent in Definite Interest and 13 percent-6 percent in the all-important First Choice column. Blades is the First Choice of 16 percent of Males Under 25 and 23 percent of Females Under 25, making it the perfect high-school and college-age date movie.

I think that Disney will score, but Robinsons's upside will be limited by the number of Under 25s who are planning to flood multiplexes for toe loops and laybacks and laughs. I'll project $41-$44 million for Blades of Glory, and $25-$28 million for Meet the Robinsons in a strong 1-2 finish.

As I reported earlier in the week, The Lookout (Miramax) is a non-starter on about 1,000 screens. The well-reviewed Joseph Gordon-Levitt film has a Total Aware number under 30 percent and only a 15 percent Definite Interest mark. It's the First Choice of just 1 percent of moviegoers, and it will struggle to crack the Top 10.

For more data, read my early weekend preview from Tuesday.

Here are my Final Weekend Projections for March 30-April 1:
1. Blades of Glory (Paramount) -- $43.5 million
2. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) -- $27.1 million
3. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (Warner Bros.) -- $12.5 million
4. 300 (Warner Bros.) -- $11.7 million
5. Shooter (Paramount) -- $9.4 million
6. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) -- $8.7 million
7. The Last Mimzy (New Line) -- $6.4 million
8. Reign Over Me (Sony) -- $4.8 million
9. Premonition (Sony) -- $4.7 million
10. The Hills Have Eyes 2 (Fox Atomic) -- $4.65 million
11. The Lookout (Miramax) -- $2.5 million


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Posted at 12:21 PM in Advice and Analysis, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent, Weekly Tracking | Permalink

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