The almost certain No. 1 movie this weekend will be Next (Paramount). It's a sci-fi thriller directed by Lee Tamahori (Die Another Day, XXX: State of the Union) and starring Nicolas Cage, Jessica Biel and Julianne Moore. After Ghost Rider, the badly-reviewed blockbuster comic book adaptation, I will never again doubt Cage's ability to open a movie, but this guy makes some flat-out awful films. Here are hiss last dozen movies along with the percentage of positive reviews they received on RottenTomatoes.com:

Ghost Rider -- 27 percent
The Wicker Man -- 14 percent
World Trade Center -- 71 percent
The Ant Bully -- 62 percent
The Weather Man – 59 percent
Lord of War -- 61 percent
National Treasure -- 42 percent
Matchstick Men -- 82 percent
Adaptation -- 90 percent
Sonny -- 24 percent
Windtalkers -- 35 percent
Captain Corelli's Mandolin -- 28 percent

I can't think of an Oscar winner who has signed on to more disastrous movies than Cage. It's almost as if he accepts every role he is offered, no matter how bad the script or concept is. Although I will not see Next until later in the week, I hear it's bad -- real bad. It's from Revolution Studios and Joe Roth. They're coming off of their latest disaster, Perfect Stranger (Sony), which tanked when it opened two weeks ago. Revolution has a deal with Sony to distribute all of its movies, and nobody's quite sure how Paramount got stuck with the distribution of this one. One high-level executive told me that people would like to drive this movie out to the desert, dig a hole and bury it.

All that being said, Cage is riding high after Ghost Rider ($45.3 million opening, $115.5 million domestic), and industry tracking is better than expected. My sources tell me that Total Awareness for Next is at 53 percent (Males Under 25, 56 percent; Females Under 25, 64 percent; Females Under 25, 45 percent; Females Over 25, 48 percent), but Definite Interest is only at 27 percent. It's highly unlikely that this one will open at $20 million or better, but it should win the three-day with $14-$17 million.

Buena Vista will release The Invisible on 2,000 screens on Friday, and this genre picture has a chance to outperform last weekend's horror flick Vacancy (Sony). The main reason for the rosier outlook is that this David S. Goyer-directed release is PG-13, as opposed to having a more limiting R rating. Of the horror pics released in 2007, nine have been R-rated:

Jan. 12 -- Primeval, $6 million opening ($10.5 million cume)
Jan. 19 -- The Hitcher, $7.8 million opening ($16.4 million cume)
Feb. 9 -- Hannibal Rising, $13 million opening ($27.5 million cume)
Feb. 23 -- The Number 23, $14.6 million opening ($35.1 million cume)
Feb. 23 -- The Abandoned, $782,000 opening ($1.3 million cume)
March 16 -- Dead Silence, $7.8 million opening ($16.5 million cume)
March 23 -- The Hills Have Eyes 2, $9.6 million opening ($20.2 million cume)
April 5 -- The Reaping, $10 million opening ($22.9 million cume, still in release)
April 20 -- Vacancy, $7.6 million opening ($8.1 million cume, still in release)

There have been just two PG-13-rated horror films this year:

Jan. 26 -- Blood & Chocolate, $2 million opening ($3.5 million cume)
Feb. 2 -- The Messengers, $14.7 million opening ($35.3 million cume)

You've got to throw out Blood & Chocolate, which opened on just 1,200 screens and was distributed by struggling MGM, but the other PG-13-rated horror release, The Messengers (Sony), was able to win Super Bowl weekend. Perhaps Disney can position this movie as the next cool movie for Under 25s (including teens). If they've been able to get their trailers on the head of Disturbia (Paramount) for the last couple of weeks, then The Invisible might be able to grab the same audience.

The lead actor is Justin Chatwin, who played Tom Cruise's son in War of the Worlds, and Oscar-winner Marcia Gay Harden is in the supporting cast, but the most compelling name involved is Goyer's. David S. Goyer is among the hottest guys in Hollywood. He wrote the three Blade movies and directed the most recent of them, Blade: Trinity. He also wrote Batman Begins and is working on the sequel, The Dark Knight, as we speak; and he executive produced Ghost Rider. In short, this guy knows what he's doing. As of early this week, I'm told that Total Awareness for The Invisible is at just 46 percent, but Under 25 Males are at 51 percent and Under 25 Females are at 54 percent. By no means are those spectacular numbers, but I think this ghost story has a chance to be in the $11-$14 million range this weekend.

"Stone Cold" Steve Austin is above the title for the first time in The Condemned (Lionsgate), which debuts on 2,000 plus screens Friday. I've seen the movie, and I think it's a lot of fun. This is the fifth film featuring a professional wrestler from WWE Films and executive producer Vince McMahon, and they've had some success:

2003 -- The Rundown starring The Rock, $18.5 million opening ($47.7 million cume)
2004 -- Walking Tall starring The Rock, $15.5 million opening ($46.4 million cume)
2006 -- The Marine starring John Cena, $7.1 million opening ($18.8 million cume )
2006 -- See No Evil starring Kane, $4.5 million opening ($15 million cume)

Last week I joked that any male who went to see In the Land of Women (Warner Bros.) might come down with a bad case of estrogen poisoning. The reverse is true here. Women cannot deal with this much testosterone. Under 25 Males are Aware of The Condemned (52 percent), and they have Definite Interest (38 percent), so this picture will do some business. In the final analysis, the R rating combined with the fact that women have no interest in it, means that it won't break out in a huge way, but $7-$10 million is definitely doable.

Yari Film Group is an up-and-comer, but the odds are stacked heavily against them with Kickin' It Old Skool, which they will try to place on 1,500-plus screens this weekend. Don't be surprised if they come in below that number. This solid little company had great success with The Illusionist last summer, but a wide, commercial release is a very different animal. Jamie Kennedy is back with what looks like a rehash of his 2003 release Malibu's Most Wanted. He had Warner Bros. behind that film, and it debuted on over 2,500 screens, and it still scored only $12.6 million on opening weekend and a $34.4 million total domestic gross. Kickin It won't get near those numbers. With a 0 percent Unaided Awareness and just 37 percent Total Aware, this picture is really just pre-Spidey filler. $2-$5 million is about right, and Kickin’ It Old Skool will have a tough time holding on to screens for next weekend.

On Thursday, I'll go online with my Final Weekend Tracking Predictions, and then on Friday we'll round up the predictions of all of the Internet's so-called box office "experts." As always, by Friday night at midnight (Pacific), we'll call the winners and losers with our Exclusive FantasyMoguls.com Early Friday and 3-Day Estimates.