If you're playing Box Office Moguls or Ultimate Movie Moguls, the question is "How important is it to have Spider-Man 3 on my slate?" If you're playing the Weekend Moguls Over/Under, the question is, "Will Spidey be Over or Under $125 million on his big opening weekend?" And if you're playing On the Money, the question is, "What will the exact amount of SM3's opening three-day haul?"

If you're a movie junkie like me, this is probably one of the movies that you've been waiting for. It's going to be huge, and Sony needs this film to come through in a HUGE way. Radar Online is reporting that Spider-Man 3 is the most expensive film ever made, with a budget that ultimately reached $500 million! "As production dragged on into late summer -- it had been scheduled to conclude in June -- stories about the project's ballooning budget started popping up all over town. But in the end, even the most hyperbolic of observers may have underestimated the final tab. Industry insiders claim that Sony spent $350 million or more on production alone. With marketing and promotion factored in, the total price tag will approach half a billion dollars -- positioning Spider-Man 3 as the most expensive movie of all time. (Cleopatra, the 1963 epic that has long held the title of priciest picture, had an inflation-adjusted budget of $290 million.)" 

That makes Spider-Man 3 2.5 times as expensive as Spider-Man 2! That's nuts. I've seen SM3, and it's very entertaining (my review will go online Tuesday),  but it's not 2.5 times as good as SM2. Believe it or not, there's still not much risk for Sony despite the half-billion dollar price tag. Spider-Man 2 delivered $784 million worldwide ($373 million domestic). Add the DVD bonanza and merchandizing, and the new installment should bring home over $1 billion in total revenue (and $800 million in worldwide box office). I just got off the phone with one of my best studio sources who relayed to me the latest industry tracking for Spider-Man 3, and it's staggering.

There's a column in tracking analysis called Un-Aided Awareness. This means that when a survey call is made, the questioner asks if there are any movies the person at the other end of the phone is interested in seeing. The vast majority of movies score a 0 percent in Un-Aided Awareness, but, when pictures score in this column, it's a great indicator of heat and buzz. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) had 8 percent Un-Aided Awareness. Ghost Rider (Sony) was a stronger 13 percent, and 300 (Warner Bros.) had a very impressive 23 percent. As of today, Spider-Man 3 is at 41 percent! The 3 biggest films of 2007 so far are 300 ($207 million), Wild Hogs ($159 million) and Ghost Rider ($115 million). Let's compare the tracking for Spider-Man 3 to the opening week tracking of those 3 blockbusters.

SPIDER-MAN 3
Un-aided Awareness -- 41 percent
Total Aware -- 98 percent (Male Under 25, 97 percent; Male 25 Plus, 97 percent; Female Under 25, 100 percent; Female 25 Plus, 99 percent)
Definite Interest -- 71 percent (Male Under 25, 78 percent; Male 25 Plus, 77 percent; Female Under 25, 70 percent; Female 25 Plus, 60 percent)
First Choice -- 54 percent (Male Under 25, 65 percent; Male 25 Plus, 62 percent; Female Under 25, 48 percent; Female 25 Plus, 42 percent)

300
Un-Aided Awareness -- 23 percent
Total Aware -- 67 percent (Male Under 25, 82 percent; Male 25 Plus, 72 percent; Female Under 25, 61 percent; Female 25 Plus, 54 percent)
Definite Interest -- 56 percent (Male Under 25, 70 percent; Male 25 Plus, 64 percent; Female Under 25, 37 percent; Female 25 Plus, 45 percent)
First Choice -- 31 percent (Male Under 25, 51 percent; Male 25 Plus, 36 percent; Female Under 25, 18 percent; Female 25 Plus, 19 percent)

WILD HOGS
Un-Aided Awareness -- 8 percent
Total Aware -- 79 percent (Male Under 25, 79 percent; Male 25 Plus, 83 percent; Female Under 25, 72 percent; Female 25 Plus, 82 percent)
Definite Interest -- 41 percent (Male Under 25, 44 percent; Male 25 Plus, 40 percent; Female Under 25, 35 percent; Female 25 Plus, 44 percent)
First Choice -- 14 percent (Male Under 25, 10 percent; Male 25 Plus, 21 percent; Female Under 25, 8 percent; Female 25 Plus, 18 percent)

GHOST RIDER
Un-Aided Awareness -- 13 percent
Total Aware -- 91 percent (Male Under 25, 93 percent; Male 25 Plus, 94 percent; Female Under 25, 89 percent; Female 25 Plus, 87 percent)
Definite Interest -- 42 percent (Male Under 25, 53 percent; Male 25 Plus, 45 percent; Female Under 25, 38 percent; Female 25 Plus, 33 percent)
First Choice -- 25 percent (Male Under 25, 34 percent; Male 25 Plus, 35 percent; Female Under 25, 15 percent; Female 25 Plus, 16 percent)

What makes Spider-Man 3 such a tracking juggernaut is that it scores with all four quadrants: Males Under 25, Males 25 Plus, Females Under 25 and Females 25 Plus.  Both Ghost Rider and 300 were soft with Females Under 25 and 25 Plus, and Hogs had relative weakness with Males and Females Under 25. Spidey skews slightly more male, but First Choice numbers of 48 percent and 42 percent, for Females Under 25 and 25 Plus, respectively, are fantastic. The other factor in the tracking that puts SM3 in the $100-million-weekend club is the percentage of the Total Aware who have Definite Interest. Only 46 percent of those moviegoers Aware of Ghost Rider had Definite Interest in seeing it. That rate was 51 percent for Wild Hogs and an astounding 83 percent for 300.

A fantastic 72 percent of the people Aware of Spider-Man this week have Definite Interest in seeing it. That's less than 300, but Spidey is drawing from a 98 percent Aware pool. That is an extraordinary number of people who say that they will likely buy tickets this weekend. How high can Spider-Man 3 go? Here's a look at the all-time best three-day opening weekends.

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (July 7, 2006) -- $135.6 million
2. Spider-Man (May 3, 2002) -- $114.8 million
3. Star Wars: Episode III -- Revenge of the Sith (May 19, 2005) -- $108.4 million
4. Shrek 2 (May 19, 2004) -- $108 million
5. X-Men: The Last Stand (May 26, 2006) -- $102.7 million
6. Harry Potter & the Goblet of Fire (Nov. 18, 2005) -- $102.6 million
7. Harry Potter & the Prisoner of Azkaban (May 4, 2004) -- $93.7 million
8. The Matrix Reloaded (May 15, 2003) -- $91.7 million
9. Harry Potter & the Sorcerer's Stone (Nov. 16, 2001) -- $90.3 million
10. Harry Potter & the Chamber of Secrets (Nov. 15, 2002) -- $88.3 million

The running time (2 hrs., 20 min.) is a concern, but most major locations will have multiple screens showing the film. (My Flagship Theatres triplex across from USC will open SM3 on 2 of 3 screens.) In fact, I've been told that, although the final number of locations will be approximately 4,000, there will be an unofficial all-time record approaching 10,500 prints (including IMAX and digital). My early opening week estimate for Spider-Man 3 is for $130-$140 million, and if you put a gun to my head, I'll say it does break the all-time opening weekend record.

The only other wide release this weekend could be a clever piece of counter-programming. Lucky You (Warner Bros.) has had a lot of different release dates in the past year, which is never a good sign, but Curtis Hanson (L.A. Confidential, In Her Shoes) is a solid filmmaker and WB has done a very nice marketing job here. In fact, Lucky You, a love story/poker yarn starring Eric Bana, Drew Barrymore and Robert Duvall, has a Total Aware of 64 percent (Males Under 25, 47 percent; Males 25 Plus, 63 percent; Females Under 25, 70 percent; and Females 25 Plus, 76 percent). Definite Interest, however, is just 23 percent, and its First Choice number is only 4 percent (although that's hardly a fair fight against Spider-Man 3). I'll be at a press screening of Lucky You on Tuesday, and I'll post my review shortly thereafter, but in the meantime, I say that an 11 percent First Choice score among Females 25 Plus (Spider-Man 3's weakest quadrant) means that Lucky You has a shot at $7-$10 million.