The major surprise, other than the horrible overall performance of the industry this weekend, is the disastrous opening for Next. Given that all 7 of the so-called box office “experts” and the average of Box Office Mojo Derby Averages in our FantasyMoguls.com feature The Scorecard had predicted a weekend win for the Lee Tamahori-directed Phillip K. Dick adaptation, a 4th-place finish is a shocker. Next delivered only $2 to start the weekend, and its 3-day will be a meager $6 million.

This is a major comedown for Nicolas Cage. Coming off of his blockbuster Ghost Rider ($45.3 million opening - $115.5 million cume), industry tracking suggested that Next would be a second consecutive hit. Instead, this failure joins Cage’s checkered recent resume. Look at Cage’s last 13 films in terms of percentage of positive (or Fresh) reviews on RottenTomatoes.com and box office performance.

30% Fresh – Next - $6 million opening
27% Fresh - Ghost Rider - $45.3 million opening - $115.5 million cume
14% Fresh - The Wicker Man – $9.6 million opening - $23.6 million cume
71% Fresh - World Trade Center – $18.7 million opening - $70.2 million cume
62% Fresh - The Ant Bully – $8.4 million opening - $28.1 million cume
59% Fresh - The Weather Man – $4.2 million opening - $12.4 million cume
61% Fresh - Lord of War – $9.4 million opening - $24.1 million cume
42% Fresh - National Treasure – $35.1 million opening - $173 million cume
82% Fresh - Matchstick Men – $13 million opening - $36.9 million cume
90% Fresh - Adaptation –  $384,000 opening - $22.5 million cume
24% Fresh - Sonny – $17,600 opening - $30,000 cume
35% Fresh - Windtalkers – $14.5 million opening - $40.9 million cume
28% Fresh - Captain Corelli’s Mandolin – $7.2 million opening - $25.5 million cume

Next won’t do much to raise Jessica Biel’s profile. Her newest movie is only her all-time 7th-best opening.

1. The Texas Chainsaw Massacre – $28 million opening
2. Blade: Trinity – $16 million opening
3. Stealth – $13.2 million opening
4. Elizabethtown – $10.6 million opening
5. Cellular – $10.1 million opening
6. Summer Catch – $7 million opening
7. Next - $6 million opening
8. I’ll Be Home For Christmas – $3.9 million opening
9. The Rules of Attraction – $2.5 million opening
10. The Illusionist – $927,000 opening

David S. Goyer’s The Invisible (Buena Vista) will finish 2nd for the weekend after a $2.9 million Friday and an anticipated $8.1 million by Monday morning. Disney clearly got their trailers on the head of Disturbia the last couple of weeks, and, despite its lack of star-power, they were able to squeeze one decent week out of this title. The Invisible will do nothing to cool off one of the hottest talents in Hollywood. Writer/director/producer David S. Goyer’s first produced screenplay was 1990’s Death Warrant, and since then, his career trajectory has been virtually straight up.

1990 - Death Warrant – $5 million opening - $16.8 million cume
1991 - Kickboxer 2: The Road Back – $444,000 opening - $1.25 million cume
1994 - The Puppet Masters - $4 million opening - $8.6 million cume
1996 – The Crow: City of Angels - $9.7 million opening - $17.9 million cume
1998 – Dark City - $5.5 million opening - $14.3 million cume
1998 – Blade - $17 million opening - $70 million cume
2002 – Blade II - $32.5 million opening - $82.4 million cume
2004 – Blade: Trinity - $16 million opening - $52.4 million cume
2005 – Batman Begins -$48.7 million opening - $205.3 million cume

Nobody will mistake The Invisible for Batman Begins, but this is a modest success for Goyer. He has some other major projects in the pipeline including his screenplay for the 2008 release Jumper directed by Doug Liman and starring Hayden Christensen, Samuel L. Jackson and Diane Lane for Fox and  the Batman sequel The Dark Knight for Warner Bros. He is also working on The Flash to be directed by Shawn Levy (Night at the Museum). 

Fracture (New Line), starring Anthony Hopkins and Ryan Gosling, is holding up well with $2.2 million on Friday and an expected $7.1 million for the weekend and a 3rd place finish. Blades of Glory (Paramount), with $1.6 million Friday and $5.2 million for the 3-day rounds out the Top 5.

The other 2 new wide releases are major disasters. The Condemned (Lionsgate), from WWE Films and wrestling impresario Vince McMahon, managed only an estimated $1.2 million on Friday, and it will barely make the Top 10 for the 3-day with $3.5 million. This is a rough above-the-title debut for Stone Cold Steve Austin, whose only previous film role was of the supporting variety in The Longest Yard ($47.6 million opening - $158.1 million cume). This is McMahon’s 5th picture movie with WWE Films, and it looks like it will be his worst opening.

1. The Rundown starring The Rock – $18.5 million opening ($47.7 million cume)
2. Walking Tall starring The Rock – $15.5 million opening ($46.4 million cume)
3. The Marine starring John Cena - $7.1 million opening ($18.8 million cume)
4. See No Evil starring Kane - $4.5 million opening ($15 million cume)
5. The Condemned starring Stone Cold Steve Austin - $3.5 million

Meanwhile, Jamie Kennedy’s Kickin’ It Old Skool (Yari) fared even worse with an estimated $900,000 on Friday, and an anticipated $2.6 million for the weekend.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Disturbia (Paramount) - $3.15 million
2. The Invisible (Buena Vista) - $2.9 million
3. Fracture (New Line) - $2.2 million
4. Next (Paramount) - $2 million
5. Blades of Glory (Paramount) - $1.6 million
6. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) - $1.3 million
7. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) - $1.25 million
8. The Condemned (Lionsgate) - $1.2
9. Vacancy (Sony) - $1.17 million
10. Are We Done Yet? (Sony) - $950,000
*Kickin’ It Old Skool (Yari) - $900,000

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Disturbia (Paramount) - $9 million [$52 million cume]
2. The Invisible (Buena Vista) – $8.1 million [$8.1 million cume]
3. Fracture (New Line) – $7.1 million [$21.4 million cume]
4. Next (Paramount) - $6 million [$6 million cume]
5. Blades of Glory (Paramount) - $5.2 million [$108 million cume]
6. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) - $5 million [$88.5 million cume]
7. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) - $3.6 million [$11.3 million cume]
8. The Condemned (Lionsgate) - $3.5 million [$3.5 million cume]
9. Are We Done Yet? (Sony) - $3.4 million [$43.8 million cume]
10.  Vacancy (Sony) - $3.3 million [$12.9 million cume]
*Kickin’ It Old Skool (Yari) - $2.6 million [$2.6 million cume]