In the end, our final estimates for Disturbia (Paramount) and The Invisible (Buena Vista) are very close to our initial projections. Fracture (New Line) stays third, but a tad softer than $7 million, and although Nicolas Cage's Next (Paramount) is still an unmitigated disaster, it should finish about $700,000 better than the number I released Friday night.

For detail and analysis, scroll down to my Friday night and Saturday morning stories.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. Disturbia (Paramount) -- $3.96 million
2. The Invisible (Buena Vista) -- $3 million
3. Fracture (New Line) -- $3 million
4. Next (Paramount) -- $2.9 million
5. Blades of Glory (Paramount) -- $2.3 million
6. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) -- $2.2 million
7. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) -- $2 million
8. Vacancy (Sony) -- $1.75 million
9. Are We Done Yet? (Sony) -- $1.74 million
10. The Condemned (Lionsgate) -- $1.45 million
* Kickin’ It Old Skool (Yari) -- $1 million

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM UPDATED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Disturbia (Paramount) -- $9.15 million
2. The Invisible (Buena Vista) -- $8 million
3. Fracture (New Line) -- $6.85 million
4. Next (Paramount) -- $6.67 million
5. Blades of Glory (Paramount) -- $5.45 million
6. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) -- $4.55 million
7. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) -- $4.8 million
8. Vacancy (Sony) -- $4.25 million
9. Are We Done Yet? (Sony) -- $3.64 million
10. The Condemned (Lionsgate) -- $3.5 million
* Kickin’ It Old Skool (Yari) -- $2.5 million

On the PTA front, Thinkfilm's Zoo, a bizarre doc about a man and his relationship with a horse, tailed off badly Saturday at its one location in NYC, and it falls to third in our Final 3-Day PTA Estimates. The Valet (Sony Classics) will win the weekend per-location battle with just over $7,000 per followed by Indian film Ta Ra Rum Pum (Yash Raji Films) with a nearly $5,500 average. New Sony Classics offering Jindabyne, starring Gabriel Byrne and Laura Linney, and The Invisible round out the Top 5.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY SATURDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. The Valet (Sony Classics) -- 14 locations, $3,603 PTA
2. Jindabyne (Sony Classics) -- 6 locations, $2,549 PTA
3. Ta Ra Rum Pum (Yash Raj Films) -- 85 locations, $2,463 PTA
4. Black Book (Sony Classics) -- 83 locations, $1,852 PTA
5. Private Fears In Public Places (IFC) -- 2 locations, $1,848 PTA
6. Zoo (Thinkfilm) -- 1 location, $1,630 PTA
7. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) -- 1,272 locations, $1,572 PTA
8. The Invisible (Buena Vista) -- 2,019 locations, $1,485 PTA
9. Journey From the Fall (ImaginAsian) -- 13 locations, $1,446 PTA
10. Disturbia (Paramount) -- 3,047 locations, $1,299 PTA

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM FINAL 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. The Valet (Sony Classics) -- 14 locations, $7,261 PTA
2. Ta Ra Rum Pum (Yash Raj Films) -- 85 locations, $5,488 PTA
3. Zoo (Thinkfilm) -- 1 location, $5,318 PTA
4. Jindabyne (Sony Classics) -- 6 locations, $4,864 PTA
5. The Invisible (Buena Vista) -- 2,019 locations, $3,962 PTA
6. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) -- 1,272 locations, $3,773 PTA
7. Black Book (Sony Classics) -- 83 locations, $3,549 PTA
8. Private Fears In Public Places (IFC) -- 2 locations, $3,448 PTA
9. Journey From the Fall (ImaginAsian) -- 13 locations, $3,024 PTA
10. Disturbia (Paramount) -- 3,047 locations, $3,002 PTA

SATURDAY A.M.: Spider-Man 3 (Sony) can't get here fast enough. With four new films opening this weekend, it was fair to expect that one of them might top $10 million. Instead, the expected winner, Next (Paramount), has become one of the biggest bombs of 2007.

Last night, I projected a fourth-place finish for this Nicolas Cage stinker, and I expect that to hold up. My three-day projection was for $6 million, and that's going to be very close to Monday's actual. Directed by Lee Tamahori and co-starring Jessica Biel and Julianne Moore (who is one of the world's finest actresses and needs her head examined for accepting this role) is the latest disaster from Joe Roth's Revolution Studios. It comes on the heels of Revolution's equally awful Perfect Stranger (Sony) starring Halle Berry and Bruce Willis.

Since Sony has a deal to distribute Roth's films, its safe to assume that this was not a huge mistake for Paramount, which likely put up prints and advertising (P&A) without fronting any production costs. If you scroll down to my Friday night report, you'll see my analysis of Next from both Nicolas Cage and Jessica Biel's perspective, but a moment here about New Zealand-born Lee Tamahori. His 1994 film Once Were Warriors was an unqualified arthouse hit winning the Venice Film Festival and generating an American domestic gross of $1.6 million. Since then, he has made 6 films, and Next is only his fifth-best opening.

1. Die Another Day -- $47 million opening ($160.9 million cume)
2. Along Came a Spider -- $16.7 million opening ($74 million cume)
3. xXx: State of the Union -- $12.7 million opening ($26.8 million cume)
4. The Edge -- $7.7 million opening ($27.8 million cume)
5. Next -- $6 million opening
6. Mullholland Falls -- $4.3 million opening ($11.5 million cume)

Now that 2005's xXx: State of the Union and Next are back-to-back on his resume, Tamahori could have a tough time getting hired for his next job.

With The Condemned (Lionsgate) scoring only an estimated $3.5 million this weekend, it will be a similar challenge to mount another film with "Stone Cold" Steve Austin getting above-the-title billing (unless Vince McMahon decides to give his former marquee star another chance). This brutally violent action flick logged one of the weakest-ever openings for a movie featuring a professional wrestling star, besting only Hulk Hogan's disastrous Mr. Nanny.

1. Spider-Man -- Randy Savage, $114.8 million opening
2. The Mummy Returns -- The Rock, $68.1 million opening
3. The Longest Yard -- Steve Austin, $47.6 million opening
4. The Scorpion King -- The Rock, $36 million opening
5. Be Cool -- The Rock, $23.4 million opening
6. The Rundown -- The Rock, $18.5 million opening
7. Walking Tall -- The Rock, $15.5 million opening
8. Doom -- The Rock, $15.4 million opening
9. Gridiron Gang -- The Rock, $14.4 million opening
10. Rocky 3 -- Hulk Hogan, $12.4 million opening
11. Predator -- Jesse Ventura, $12 million opening
12. Spy Hard -- Hulk Hogan, $10.4 million opening
13. Man On the Moon -- Jerry Lawler, $7.5 million opening
14. The Marine -- John Cena, $7.1 million opening
15. Road House -- Terry Funk, $5.9 million opening
16. Muppets From Space -- Hulk Hogan, $4.8 million opening
17. They Live -- Roddy Piper, $4.8 million opening
18. See No Evil -- Kane, $4.5 million opening
19. The Condemned -- Steve Austin, $3.5 million opening
20. Mr. Nanny -- Hulk Hogan, $1.8 million opening

The other new release, Kickin’ It Old Skool (Yari) starring Jamie Kennedy, is an even larger failure. This half-baked version of Kennedy's marginally successful Malibu's Most Wanted will top out at $2.6 million for the weekend. Yari Film Group is attempting to establish itself as a distributor, and they had some real success last summer with the well-reviewed arthouse/high-end commercial flick The Illusionist, but attempting a wide commercial release was probably a case of too much too soon. Here's a look at the 6 films they have released thus far starting with Vin Diesel in Find Me Guilty.

• March 2006: Find Me Guilty -- $608,000 opening, $1.2 million cume
• Aug. 2006: The Illusionist -- $928,000 opening, $39 million cume
• Sept. 2006: Haven -- $38,000 opening, $142,000 cum
• Feb. 2007: Gray Matters -- $25,000 opening' $71,000 cume
• March 2007: First Snow -- $15,000 opening, $197,000 cume (still in release)
• April 2007: Kickin' It Old Skool -- $2.6 million

Yari has got interesting high-end commercial films on the way like gambling saga Even Money from director Mark Rydell (The Rose, On Golden Pond), which stars Kim Basinger, Forest Whitaker, Danny DeVito, Ray Liotta and Kelsey Grammer and opens May 18; and Shortcut To Happiness, which features Anthony Hopkins, Alec Baldwin and Jennifer Love Hewitt and opens July 13. So far, however, they just don't have the "muscle" to break out a wide release commercial film like Kickin' (although any distributor would have had trouble with this Jamie Kennedy fiasco).

The weekend is equally soft in the PTA department. Thinkfilm's bizarre Zoo, a documentary about a man and his sexual relationship with a horse, will likely top the PTA list with just under $7,000 at one New York City location. French farce The Valet (Sony Classics) will place second with just under $6,000, followed by Indian film Ta Ra Rum Pum (Yash Raj Films), The Invisible (Buena Vista) and new Sony Classics offering Jindabyne, starring Gabriel Byrne and Laura Linney.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY FRIDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. Zoo (Thinkfilm) -- 1 location, $2,388 PTA
2. The Valet (Sony Classics) -- 14 locations, $2,058 PTA
3. Ta Ra Rum Pum (Yash Raj Films) -- 39 locations, $1,825 PTA
4. The Invisible (Buena Vista) -- 2,019 locations, $1,436 PTA
5. Jindabyne (Sony Classics) -- 6 locations, $1,215
6. Black Book (Sony Classics) -- 83 locations, $1,047 PTA
7. Disturbia (Paramount) -- 3,047 locations, $1,033 PTA
8. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) -- 1,272 locations, $982 PTA
9. Journey From the Fall (ImaginAsian) -- 13 locations, $977 PTA
10. Fracture (New Line) -- 2,443 locations, $900 PTA

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. Zoo (Thinkfilm) -- 1 location, $6,838 PTA
2. The Valet (Sony Classics) -- 14 locations, $5,858 PTA
3. Ta Ra Rum Pum (Yash Raj Films) -- 39 locations, $5,225 PTA
4. The Invisible (Buena Vista) -- 2,019 locations, $4,011 PTA
5. Jindabyne (Sony Classics) -- 6 locations, $3,765 PTA
6. Black Book (Sony Classics) -- 83 locations, $3,297 PTA
7. Disturbia (Paramount) -- 3,047 locations, $2,953 PTA
8. Fracture (New Line) -- 2,443 locations, $2,906 PTA
9. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) -- 1,272 locations, $2,830 PTA
10. Journey From the Fall (ImaginAsian) -- 13 locations, $2,750 PTA

FRIDAY NIGHT The last weekend of April is traditionally a dismal box office weekend, but no one anticipated that business would be this bad. The new Nicolas Cage sci-fi thriller Next (Paramount) has tanked allowing holdover Disturbia (Paramount/Dreamworks) to win a third consecutive weekend box office crown. The Shia LaBeouf hit scored an estimated $3.15 million on Friday, which should translate to a three-day of $9 million, and that is enough to hold off Disney's The Invisible for the win.

The major surprise, other than the horrible overall performance of the industry this weekend, is the disastrous opening for Next. Given that all seven of the so-called box office "experts" and the average of Box Office Mojo Derby Averages in our FantasyMoguls.com feature The Scorecard had predicted a weekend win for the Lee Tamahori-directed Phillip K. Dick adaptation, a fourth-place finish is a shocker. Next delivered only $2 to start the weekend, and its three-day take will be a meager $6 million.

This is a major comedown for Nicolas Cage. Coming off of his blockbuster Ghost Rider ($45.3 million opening, $115.5 million cume), industry tracking suggested that Next would be a second consecutive hit. Instead, this failure joins Cage's checkered recent resume. Look at Cage's last 13 films in terms of percentage of positive (or Fresh) reviews on RottenTomatoes.com and box office performance.

Next -- 30 percent Fresh, $6 million opening
Ghost Rider -- 27 percent Fresh, $45.3 million opening ($115.5 million cume)
The Wicker Man  -- 14 percent Fresh, $9.6 million opening ($23.6 million cume)
World Trade Center -- 71 percent Fresh, $18.7 million opening ($70.2 million cume)
The Ant Bully -- 62 percent Fresh, $8.4 million opening ($28.1 million cume)
The Weather Man -- 59 percent Fresh, $4.2 million opening ($12.4 million cume)
Lord of War -- 61 percent Fresh, $9.4 million opening ($24.1 million cume)
National Treasure -- 42 percent Fresh, $35.1 million opening ($173 million cume)
Matchstick Men -- 82 percent Fresh, $13 million opening ($36.9 million cume)
Adaptation -- 90 percent Fresh, $384,000 opening ($22.5 million cume)
Sonny -- 24 percent Fresh, $17,600 opening ($30,000 cume)
Windtalkers -- 35 percent Fresh, $14.5 million opening ($40.9 million cume)
Captain Corelli’s Mandolin -- 28 percent Fresh, $7.2 million opening ($25.5 million cume)

Next also won't do much to raise Jessica Biel's profile. Her newest movie is only her all-time seventh-best opening.

1. The Texas Chainsaw Massacre -- $28 million opening
2. Blade: Trinity -- $16 million opening
3. Stealth -- $13.2 million opening
4. Elizabethtown -- $10.6 million opening
5. Cellular -- $10.1 million opening
6. Summer Catch -- $7 million opening
7. Next -- $6 million opening
8. I'll Be Home For Christmas -- $3.9 million opening
9. The Rules of Attraction -- $2.5 million opening
10. The Illusionist -- $927,000 opening

David S. Goyer's The Invisible (Buena Vista) will finish second for the weekend after a $2.9 million Friday and an anticipated $8.1 million by Monday morning. Disney clearly got their trailers on the head of Disturbia the last couple of weeks, and, despite its lack of star power, they were able to squeeze one decent week out of this title. The Invisible will do nothing to cool off one of the hottest talents in Hollywood. Writer/director/producer David S. Goyer's first produced screenplay was 1990's Death Warrant, and since then, his career trajectory has been virtually straight up.

1990 -- Death Warrant, $5 million opening ($16.8 million cume)
1991 -- Kickboxer 2: The Road Back, $444,000 opening ($1.25 million cume)
1994 -- The Puppet Masters, $4 million opening ($8.6 million cume)
1996 -- The Crow: City of Angels, $9.7 million opening ($17.9 million cume)
1998 -- Dark City, $5.5 million opening ($14.3 million cume)
1998 -- Blade, $17 million opening ($70 million cume)
2002 -- Blade II, $32.5 million opening ($82.4 million cume)
2004 -- Blade: Trinity, $16 million opening ($52.4 million cume)
2005 -- Batman Begins, $48.7 million opening ($205.3 million cume)

Nobody will mistake The Invisible for Batman Begins, but this is a modest success for Goyer. He has some other major projects in the pipeline including his screenplay for the 2008 release Jumper directed by Doug Liman and starring Hayden Christensen, Samuel L. Jackson and Diane Lane for Fox; and the Batman sequel The Dark Knight for Warner Bros. He is also working on The Flash, to be directed by Shawn Levy (Night at the Museum). 

Fracture (New Line), starring Anthony Hopkins and Ryan Gosling, is holding up well with $2.2 million on Friday and an expected $7.1 million for the weekend and a third place finish. Blades of Glory (Paramount), with $1.6 million Friday and $5.2 million for the three-day rounds out the Top 5.

The other 2 new wide releases are major disasters. The Condemned (Lionsgate), from WWE Films and wrestling impresario Vince McMahon, managed only an estimated $1.2 million on Friday, and it will barely make the Top 10 for the weekend with $3.5 million. This is a rough above-the-title debut for "Stone Cold" Steve Austin, whose only previous film role was of the supporting variety in The Longest Yard ($47.6 million opening, $158.1 million cume). This is McMahon's fifth picture with WWE Films, and it looks like it will be his worst opening.

1. The Rundown, starring The Rock -- $18.5 million opening ($47.7 million cume)
2. Walking Tall, starring The Rock -- $15.5 million opening ($46.4 million cume)
3. The Marine, starring John Cena -- $7.1 million opening ($18.8 million cume)
4. See No Evil, starring Kane -- $4.5 million opening ($15 million cume)
5. The Condemned, starring "Stone Cold" Steve Austin -- $3.5 million

Meanwhile, Jamie Kennedy's Kickin' It Old Skool (Yari) fared even worse, with an estimated $900,000 on Friday, and an anticipated $2.6 million for the weekend.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Disturbia (Paramount) -- $3.15 million
2. The Invisible (Buena Vista) -- $2.9 million
3. Fracture (New Line) -- $2.2 million
4. Next (Paramount) -- $2 million
5. Blades of Glory (Paramount) -- $1.6 million
6. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) -- $1.3 million
7. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) -- $1.25 million
8. The Condemned (Lionsgate) -- $1.2 million
9. Vacancy (Sony) -- $1.17 million
10. Are We Done Yet? (Sony) -- $950,000
* Kickin' It Old Skool (Yari) -- $900,000

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Disturbia (Paramount) -- $9 million [$52 million cume]
2. The Invisible (Buena Vista) -- $8.1 million [$8.1 million cume]
3. Fracture (New Line) –- $7.1 million [$21.4 million cume]
4. Next (Paramount) -- $6 million [$6 million cume]
5. Blades of Glory (Paramount) -- $5.2 million [$108 million cume]
6. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) -- $5 million [$88.5 million cume]
7. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) -- $3.6 million [$11.3 million cume]
8. The Condemned (Lionsgate) -- $3.5 million [$3.5 million cume]
9. Are We Done Yet? (Sony) -- $3.4 million [$43.8 million cume]
10.  Vacancy (Sony) -- $3.3 million [$12.9 million cume]
* Kickin' It Old Skool (Yari) -- $2.6 million [$2.6 million cume]