... What? Were you expecting something? [Grin] Spare the shtick, spoil the reader.

Today I'll be peering through my metaphysical spyglass at the weekend of May 11-13: the second weekend of summer, featuring a genuinely unprecedented FIVE major offerings, in addition to six independent debuts (more or less). School's out, the weather's warm and the box-office competition's hot. Grab a Styrofoam cooler and some beach towels, SPF 30 Banana Boat and a thick, cheesy potboiler and dive right in ... the water's fine.

So, how "genuinely unprecedented" IS summer's sophomore weekend, exactly? Going back 17 years, the second weekend of summer has averaged only 2.1 major new releases. (Six -- including 2000's Jamie Foxx career-low Held Up, 1994 Gus Van Sant misstep Even Cowgirls Get the Blues and the forgettable 1996 Alec Baldwin mystery Heaven's Prisoners -- failed to reach 1,000 screens, the standard industry definition of wide release.) Actually, only once in the last 17 years, in 2005, have as many as FOUR wide-release films opened on this weekend (Monster-in-Law, Kicking and Screaming, Unleashed and Mindhunters, all of which entered in the Top 10). So the second weekend of summer 2007 will break records.

The big question is whether any of the newcomers can muster a respectable showing in the second-weekend shadow of Spider-Man 3. Will any of them hold their own against a potential $300-$400 million monster that might well suck the air out of every one of its rivals during its first two weeks in release? Might a few -- however improbably -- really be genuinely inspired counterprogramming gambles? Or are they all merely being led to the box-office slaughter? For perspective: conventional wisdom mandates that the second summer weekend in any given year (usually, though not always, ushered in by the second Friday in May) will suffer a SIGNIFICANT drop-off in total box-office revenue, particularly if no truly sensational new releases are premiered. Case in point: In 2003, a Top 10 led by X2 staggered to an overall 27 percent sophomore skid, despite a strong $27 million opening at No. 2 by Daddy Day Care.

In 1990, 1999, 2001, and 2002 the ten chart-topping films all experienced similar drops in Summer's second weekend (of 22 percent, 22 percent, 28 percent and 24 percent, respectively). However, this sophomore slump doesn't always play out so predictably. 2005's initial summer sovereign, the Third Crusade epic Kingdom of Heaven, was promptly deposed by a trio of uppity usurpers: the aforementioned Monster-in-Law, Kicking and Screaming and Unleashed. Perhaps owing to their own market viability (these three titles earned an aggregate $160 million domestically) -- or Kingdom of Heaven's lack thereof –- ticket-window revenues for the Top 12 films SHOT UP better than 20 PERCENT from the previous weekend. A decade earlier, Crimson Tide -- itself impressively rolling to $91 million -- was arrested by the third Die Hard film, which helped to book an increase of 21 percent in total Top 12 earnings.

So summer's two-hole doesn't ALWAYS disappoint; in fact, the BIGGEST departures from week one earnings have all been on the "plus" side. Neither are second-week-of-summer downturns, when they do occur, necessarily always in the double digits. 2000, a somewhat disappointing early blockbuster season by modern standards, imparted a modest 9 percent downtick among the Top 10 films in Summer's second week -- despite being hamstrung by such uninspired box-office fare as Battlefield Earth, U-571, Center Stage and the Flintstones sequel .Summertime's recent second-week behemoths are 1991 and 1993, as the Richard Dreyfuss-Bill Murray screwball therapy farce What About Bob? ( in '91) and Sharon Stone's Basic Instinct follow-up, Sliver ('93), actually managed to RAISE the box-office pot by 27 percent and 31.8 percent, respectively.

What, then, does all this mean? Eleven out of the last 17 years point to a double-digit LOSS of revenue in summer's second week, meaning that May 11's five wet-behind-the-ears contenders will likely get those ears boxed IN, caught between the one-two combination of Spider-Man 3 and Shrek the Third (opening May 18). Then again, two out of the last three years have delivered an against-expectations net INCREASE in week two, and recent history proves that the box office is more than half as likely to witness a surge of 15-20 percent as it is to take a comparable earnings "hit." Neither does the comparative appeal of sophomore offerings seem to be a determining factor: 1993's nearly one-third bounce in summer's second week was largely on the backs of two films, Hot Shots! Part Deux and the aforementioned Sliver, that failed to net $40 million. And in 2005, a (then) record-busting four new releases lifted the total box office by better than $15 million, which might mean that 2007's FIVE new entrees will be sharing an even bigger box-office pie (thereby hopelessly confusing my metaphors).

All things to ponder as we plunge headlong into our first big opener: 28 Weeks Later (Fox Atomic), the much-anticipated follow-up to 2002's epic, staggering, viscerally harrowing, multiple genre-reanimating 28 Days Later. Although Danny Boyle (Trainspotting, the forthcoming Sunshine) has, for the moment anyway, ceded directorial control to Academy Award nominee Juan Carlos Fresnadillo, this chapter is still very much in keeping with the original film's vision of humanity on the brink of apocalypse. (Though I have yet to discern whether the original's disorienting, sense-heightening, pulse-quickening first-person narrative style has survived the hand-off to Fresnadillo.) 28 Weeks skips ahead to six months after the events chronicled in the first film, as London begins to fill up, once more, with the uninfected survivors of history's most lethal viral outbreak. Just as mankind begins to catch its collective breath, however, a new threat emerges from the shadows of the (supposedly) spent global pandemic.

Any worries that Fresnadillo might fail to earn the respect of Boyle's adherents have been well and truly quashed. "Reviews" of footage screened early for journalists have been great-to-outstanding, and an entire community of online fans awaits 28 Weeks's theatrical premiere with a vocal, relentless, slavering hunger. Zombie flicks are pretty vogue: This year alone will see the releases of Severance (April 20), Fido (June 15) and Death Walks the Streets (July 1), along with George Romero's Diary of the Dead, Bubba's Chili Parlor and Resident Evil: Extinction (August 21). And 2008 will bring J. Michael Straczyniski's World War Z, an account of a global zombie war 10 years after its conclusion. But always, the question: What sort of box-office prospects do these films REALLY have? Only five films over the last 20 years featuring the "living dead" have managed $20 million in domestic grosses; two were Resident Evil chapters, two were derivatives of previous Romero properties, and the other was 28 Days Later. (My Republican friends insist An Inconvenient Truth belongs on that list, too; however, I digress.)

The very best, most original and respected films in the genre are really only hits in feverish, wishful hindsight: none of the Evil Dead films, including Army of Darkness, ever surpassed $11 million; Shaun of the Dead tottered to only $13 million in box-office receipts in 2004; and even 28 Days Later fell well short of $50 million. So I'm going to be pretty realistic in my predictions for its sequel, though I hope my estimates are exceedingly conservative. I foresee an opening weekend of $17-$22 million, certainly good enough for a Top 5 (potentially, top three) finish, with between 4 and 7 Top 5 points, total. I think IMDb will initially rival, and perhaps even temporarily eclipse, 28 Days Later's mark of 7.3; call it 7.1 to 7.6 at the outset, though before the end of its theatrical run the sequel's numbers should decline to the low 7s. PTA will be initially huge: $8,000-plus for its first weekend in release, which ought to translate to one or two points in that Ultimate Moguls category. Five consecutive top-ten finishes are by no means out of the question, here, so I'm going to call for $63-$68 million in total receipts, which ought to earn an appreciative public 28 Months Later in three or four more years.

Moving, now, from the walking, insistent, incoherent damned to, well, Lindsay Lohan (insert your own punch line here, folks), we arrive at Georgia Rule (Universal), which might well answer, finally, the age-old question: What would happen if On Golden Pond were remade by a thousand retarded, Writers Guild card-carrying monkeys sitting at a thousand word processors? Well, okay, not actually –- Rule's scribe is in fact a single upright, Mark Andrus, who in fact shared an Academy Award nomination for the flawless As Good As It Gets. But still. Lohan plys a brattish, insufferable, out-of-control little ingrate (she's going to murder her back with all of this stretching) who's dragged from California to bucolic, picturesque, inexplicably spiritual Idaho by an equally ungrateful mother, where they cozy up to family, nature and their own better angels.

As Pond did, this film features a Fonda -- Jane Fonda, who "bonds" [ignoring boos and hisses] with Lohan and mom Felicity Huffman over faith, firmness and farming. The appealing supporting cast includes Dermot Mulroney, Cary Elwes, Hector Elizondo and Laurie Metcalf, but even Fonda and Huffman, who have earned a total of 20 Academy Award and Golden Globe nominations (seven wins) between them, can't begin to hold a candle to the meteoric spectacle that is Ms. Lohan. Noted Irish novelist and playwright Brendan Behan's famous aphorism, "There is no such thing as bad publicity," might well be true, but his oft-ignored caveat "... except your own obituary" may be still more relevant to Lohan, who has averaged a decidedly unexceptional $38 million over her last six films.

Bottom line: I think Georgia's far from peachy, and is far more likely to be deposed and exiled to Elba than to rule May's box office. But at least one Top 5 finish is likely, as early-summer family audiences arrive at the ticket counter and promptly break into two demographically distinct groups: the under-40 males and kids, who'll duck into Spider-Man 3 (or 28 Weeks Later), and the gals, geezers and totally whipped spouses/boyfriends, who are certain to veer in the direction of Lucky You and Georgia Rule and either (a) smile knowingly and nod a lot, (b) fall asleep or (c) pray for impending death. A $20-$24 million opening, with 5 to 8 Top 5 points spread out over two to three weeks and no more than two PTA points is pretty reasonable; IMDb might start out in the mid-to-high-6s, but could end up in the 5.0-5.5 range, depending on how insufferably maudlin and hokey the enterprise ends up being and how cloying-to-annoying its two female leads are. $60 million is by no means out of reach here, though $70 million may be pushing it.

We now move from potential schlock to Richard Gere's The Flock (Freestyle Releasing), which features the flinty film star as a tenacious veteran FBI agent who persists, in the midst of training his replacement (the winsome, practical, always-appealing Claire Danes), in doggedly running down leads in a missing persons case he believes are connected to a familiar ex-con. It's Se7en meets The Silence of the Lambs by way of Kiss the Girls, which is a far from a worthless pedigree -- but how convincing can Gere be as an actual, legitimate authority figure? He's been a slick-ass hustler and a flimflam man for just about his entire career, from American Gigolo to The Hoax. The guy's at his most credible when he's embracing the unbelievable; as an actor, he chokes on sincerity and makes a mockery of earnestness. Did anyone really buy Gere as a devoted-but conflicted husband in Intersection, or a cuckolded family man in Unfaithful? It's the G-man, not John Travolta, should have nabbed the role of Gov. Jack Stanton in Primary Colors --Travolta comes off as a genuinely good guy unconvincingly acting badly, Gere as a genuine bad guy utterly convinced of his ultimate goodness. However, I digress.

Freestyle Releasing, a relative newcomer, hasn't had much success getting films in front of moviegoers; its biggest earner, 2006's An American Haunting, managed to open on better than 1,700 screens but was cast out of theaters with an unremarkable $16 million. Freestyle has had better success in partnering with other distributors, like Yari Film Group (the folks who, through grit and perseverance, managed to earn The Illusionist $39 million last year and a spot on many critics' year-end Top 10 lists, a feat even more amazing when you consider that they had to contend with and overcome superb rival The Prestige).

May, however, is not February, and even with headliners Gere and Danes, Flock will have real difficulty winging into more than 1,500 locations. However, Gere alone should swing an $11-$15 million opening, perhaps good for fifth place at the weekend box office (a single Top 5 point). From there, though, Flock migrates south pretty quickly. $36-$40 million in total box office, no PTA points and 5.8-6.3 IMDb is about all this title will do before it, erm, flocks off.

At least The Flock hasn't been sitting in a climate-controlled vault for the better part of two years. The Salon (The Bigger Picture) can't even say that. This is a straight-to-DVD release masquerading as a big-screen attraction. Vivica A. Fox (who has yet to take a role truly worthy of her abilities) stars, if you can call it that, as a cheap knockoff of Beauty Shop's Gina Morris (Queen Latifah), alongside notable talents Terrence Howard and Monica Calhoun, as well as All My Children and Cosby Show alum Dondre Whitfield. This is another title that will have a tough time finding an audience and, I suspect, an even tougher time keeping it.

The Salon might make the top ten, but not by much. Opening-weekend grosses will not exceed $8 million, and might be closer to half that; no PTA points are in the offing, and IMDb might not exceed 4.5. I'd love to say Ms. Fox is turning a corner and will soon be seen in actual, you know, watchable entertainment, but the outlook's far from cheery: of the half-dozen upcoming projects she's attached to, only San Saba and Cover look like they merit any attention whatsoever. [Sigh] Vivica, you need someone more discriminating to appraise the scripts sent your way. I'm available and cheap; you can contact me at nicodemus@fantasymoguls.com.

I don't even know what the hell to say about Delta Farce (Lionsgate), an ill-conceived update of Pauly Shore's anti-epic In the Army Now, by way of Spies Like Us and ¡Three Amigos! Whatever. DJ Qualls (a long, long way from Hustle & Flow, here), sometime sitcom also-ran Bill Engvall and (I kid you not) Larry the Cable Guy play three Fallujah-bound weekend warriors who are (to quote Ulysses Everett McGill), quite simply, dumber than a bag of hammers. Through plot contrivances and outright stupidities I won't even begin to demean you with, the boys wind up in Mexico, where they promptly begin a flat-out invasion of all things STUPID. And folks think the presence of unauthorized MEXICANS degrades AMERICA?

In more capable hands, this film might've been Canadian Bacon; as it is, it's just ... not. With decent promotion -- as opposed to its trailer, which manages only a single, lame "don't ask, don't tell" gag -- Farce COULD manage a Top 10 finish, with a first-weekend take of $6 to $8 million, and possible overall revenues in the $20-$25 million range. I really wouldn't count on it, though. Delta is what's known, in military parlance, as a real Charlie-Foxtrot; Clark Griswold might well have run out of rapid-fire, stream-of-consciousness insults if he were faced with this mess. If its IMDb score climbs above 5.0, I will be very, very surprised. Lionsgate might as well have made PFC Dumber & Dumbererer: When Harry & Lloyd Joined the Army, or even Ernest Goes to War.

Now, for a look at the weekend's limited-release schedule:

The Hip Hop Project (ThinkFilm) is a documentary feature focusing on a New York City inner-city youth outreach program that inspires the homeless, hopeless and helpless to channel their myriad anxieties and anger into rhythm and lyrics. I have a real weakness for stories like this, of real-world persons overcoming overwhelming, even incomprehensible tragedies and obstacles to affect genuine change in themselves and their communities. A single Murderball, God Grew Tired of Us or Sound and Fury, to me, is worth a hundred of Freedom Writers, Dangerous Minds or Step Up. But perhaps that's just me. Hip Hop won't be going platinum, or gold, or even aluminum. Though I feel its current 5.4 IMDb score is overly conservative, and expect that to increase somewhat, I really can't recommend this film even as an Ultimate Moguls pick.

On the other claw, there's Show Business: The Road to Broadway (Regent Releasing), winner of the Grand Jury Documentary Award at last year's Florida Film Festival, which might just be a singular art-house sensation. Featuring interviews and interludes with personalities as compelling and diverse as Alan Cumming, Kristin Chenoweth, Boy George and Rosie O'Donnell, Show Business (whose tagline is, "The real drama is BEHIND the curtain") both chronicles "a year in the life" of The Great White Way, and chases down prominent stage performers who share their experiences, insights and advice. Show Business will quite likely be a can't-miss film for aspiring singers, actors and dancers in large cities from coast to dream-chasing coast. It's getting a slow, deliberate rollout, opening on a single screen in the Big Apple on May 11, then heading out to Los Angeles, Boston, Chicago and San Francisco before hitting second-tier markets in late June. PTA could be really, really big -- I would not be surprised to see Show Business earn top-five rankings in that category for week after week as it builds from city to city. I'll be cagey and call for ten PTA points and a 7.9 to 8.4 IMDb score, though it could go higher. This is one Ultimate Moguls prospect worth serious consideration.

Home of the Brave (MGM), which had a mid-December premiere in New York and L.A., will finally getting a (slightly) wider release. The tale of three soldiers returning home from Iraq , their struggle to reconnect with their lives, families and country, has been roundly criticized for its flat portrayals and ham-handed, movie-of-the-week dramatic conceits. An all-star cast (Samuel L. Jackson, Christina Ricci, Jessica Biel, 50 Cent) and a legendary producer-director (Irwin Winkler) apparently couldn't rescue this timely tale from mediocrity. Its IMDb score is a tepid 5.0, and although it might cause a small stir in PTA, I sincerely doubt it will ultimately be worth anything at all. Do yourself a favor and conscientiously object to Home of the Brave.

I covered Blind Dating (IDP) in my March 1 column, back when it was still slated for a late-March release. Here's some of what I had to say then: "[A]n unlikely love affair between a visually impaired American man (Chris Pine) and an Indian émigré (Anjali Jay) who fall in love after their chance encounter at a doctor's office ... [T]he rich supporting cast includes droll indie-film staple Stephen Tobolowsky and a shockingly underclothed Jane Seymour as an unconventional shrink. Films concerning Indian culture can do very well in ... PTA ... if [Dating] can reproduce even one-quarter of the allure of My Big Fat Greek Wedding, it might have a decent run. Unless User Ratings stay above 8.0, however, I can't recommend that Ultimate Moguls studio executives open this Blind[.]" IMDb has indeed collapsed (currently at 6.2), and although it COULD rebound, and the movie MIGHT score some PTA points, there are just too many "ifs" in there for this to be a worthwhile property.

Day Night/Day Night (IFC) is, perhaps, the most disturbing film being released this year. The minimalist feature shadows a nameless, nonspecific, determined woman as she plans to blow herself up in the middle of Times Square in an act of unarticulated rage that threatens to explode, quite literally, in a fury of incoherent brutality. First-time actress Luisa Williams stars as "She," and her transcendent featurelessness -- a blank canvas upon which the audience is forced to project its worst fears -- makes her, perhaps, the most terrifying villain ever captured on film. She could be anyone -- a sister, a wife, a mother, a student, a social worker, a secretary. Day Night doesn't attempt to broach the "why," only the "how," "what," "when" and, most unsettlingly, "where." Like last year's searing United 93, this film achieves more by saying less; the clinical precision with which it documents her final hours is all the more terrible for its obstinate lack of any accessible reason. In an era where the unthinkable has become commonplace, Day Night is that most rare and obscure of entertainments: a forensically comprehensive enigma, an exhaustively dissected question mark. IMDb is already at 7.5, and climbing; but as far as the Ultimate Moguls game goes, this release has no other appeal.

Finally, The Ex (MGM/Weinstein Co.), formerly called Fast Track, has to be considered the very BEST Ultimate Moguls prospect to enter theaters this weekend. Zach Braff (Garden State, Scrubs) stars as Tom Reilly, a man-boy with a newly unemployed, pregnant wife (Amanda Peet). Tom gets roped into working for his father-in-law (Charles Grodin, taking on his first film role since 1994). Jason Bateman also appears as Reilly's professional foil. This is an indie release with phenomenal potential; I doubt it will earn more than $8 million, but its 8.0 IMDb score alone makes it worth eyeing. I doubt it will impact PTA, but it might be good for a point or two. Nonetheless, its IMDb seems a high-value lock, making The Ex my limited-release pick of the week.

That's all for this installment of ONE MONTH OUT. At mid-week, please look for my long-awaited "High 5*" look at films entering theaters between now and the Fourth of July that might pack a surprising punch. And, later in the week, I'll be back with a look ahead at May 18, which will herald the arrival of Shrek the Third and the troubled Elisha Cuthbert thriller Captivity. Until then, I lay down my enchanted quill; I remain, as always ...

Nico

Nicodemus is a hairy, scary, wary sewer-dweller with infallible filmic senses and boundless cinematic demesnes. Want to tickle his fancy? Tease him, please him, offer month-old cheese to him at nicodemus@fantasymoguls.com.