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April 20, 2007

THE SCORECARD: A Roundup of Predictions from the So-Called "Experts" for Apr. 20-22

by Steve Mason

Starting this week, we'll round up the weekend box-office predictions of the so-called "experts," including yours truly. The old show-business adage "Nobody knows anything" is in full effect because, even when we study and pore over the tracking figures, release plans, screen counts, reviews and even seeing the films,  the moviegoing public is still too fickle and unpredictable for this to be a science rather than an art.

Please note: Predictions are different from projections. Predictions are based on hunches. Projections, like the ones I will go online with tonight (Fri., April 20), are based on actual box office numbers. The numbers that I go online with tonight are the earliest Friday and 3-Day projections available anywhere, and generally quite accurate.

This week, The Scorecard includes predictions from me, Gitesh Pandya (of Box Office Guru), Lee's Movie Info, Box Office Report, the Derby Averages on Box Office Mojo, Box Office Psychics, Box Office Prophets, Coming Soon Weekend Warrior and Entertainment Weekly. Brandon Gray of Box Office Mojo posted too late to be included this week (or possibly won't be posting at all).

The Averages of all 9 "Expert" Predictions for Each Title are as follows:
1. Vacancy -- $12.95
2. Disturbia -- $12.46
3. Fracture -- $11.7
4. Blades of Glory -- $8.9
5. Meet the Robinsons -- $8.84
6. In the Land of Women -- $6.67
7. Hot Fuzz -- $6.5
8. Perfect Stranger -- $6.12
9. Are We Done Yet? -- $5.8
10. Wild Hogs -- $3.48

Here are the predictions of each box office "expert:"

Steve Mason, FantasyMoguls.com
1. Fracture -- $14.1 million
2. Disturbia -- $12 million
3. Vacancy -- $11.3 million
4. Blades of Glory -- $8.9 million
5. Meet the Robinsons -- $8.3 million
6. In the Land of Women -- $7.7 million
7. Perfect Stranger -- $6.8 million
8. Hot Fuzz -- $6 million
9. Are We Done Yet? -- $5.7 million
10. Wild Hogs -- $3 million

Gitesh Pandya, Box Office Guru
1. Vacancy -- $14 million
2. Fracture -- $12 million
2. Disturbia -- $12 million
4. Blades of Glory -- $9 million
4. Meet the Robinsons -- $9 million
5. In the Land of Women -- $8 million
*Hot Fuzz -- $6 million

Box Office Mojo Derby Averages
1. Vacancy -- $14.5 million
2. Disturbia -- $13.3 million
3. Fracture -- $12.7 million
4. Blades of Glory -- $9.5 million
5. Meet the Robinsons -- $9 million
6. In the Land of Women -- $7.6 million
7. Hot Fuzz -- $7.2 million
8. Perfect Stranger -- $6.3 million
9. Are We Done Yet? -- $6.1 million
10. Wild Hogs -- $3.9 million

Lee's Movie Info
1. Disturbia -- $12.604 million
2. Vacancy -- $12.526 million
3. Fracture -- $11.437 million
4. Blades of Glory -- $8.570 million
5. Meet the Robinsons -- $8.290 million
6. Perfect Stranger -- $6.192 million
7. Are We Done Yet? -- $5.592 million
8. In the Land of Women -- $4.988 million
9. Hot Fuzz -- $4.775 million
10. 300 -- $3.304 million

Box Office Prophets
1. Fracture -- $14.2 million
2. Disturbia -- $13.4 million
3. Vacancy -- $12.8 million
4. Meet the Robinsons -- $9.2 million
5. Blades of Glory -- $8.5 million
6. Hot Fuzz -- $7.3 million
7. Perfect Stranger -- $6.5 million
8. In the Land of Women -- $6.2 million
9. Are We Done Yet? -- $5.3 million
10. Wild Hogs -- $3.2 million

Box Office Psychics
1. Vacancy -- $13.5 million
2. Disturbia -- $10.5 million
3. Fracture -- $9.5 million
4. Blades of Glory -- $8.5 million
5. Meet the Robinsons -- $8.5 million
6. Hot Fuzz -- $7 million
7. Are We Done Yet? -- $6.4 million
8. Perfect Stranger -- $6 million
9. In the Land of Women -- $5 million
10. Wild Hogs -- $4 million

Coming Soon Weekend Warrior
1. Disturbia -- $11.8 million
2. Vacancy -- $11.6 million
3. Fracture -- $10.1 million
4. Meet the Robinsons -- $9.0 million
5. Blades of Glory -- $8.8 million
6. In the Land of Women -- $6.9 million
7. Hot Fuzz -- $6.5 million
8. Perfect Stranger -- $6 million
9. Are We Done Yet? -- $5.4 million
10. Wild Hogs -- $3.2 million

Box Office Report
1. Disturbia -- $13.0 million
2. Vacancy -- $11.0 million
3. Fracture -- $10.0 million
4. Blades of Glory -- $9.5 million
5. Meet the Robinsons -- $9.3 million
6. In the Land of Women -- $9.0 million
7. Are We Done Yet? -- $6 million
8. Perfect Stranger -- $5.8 million
9. Hot Fuzz -- $5.5 million
10. Wild Hogs -- $3.5 million

Entertainment Weekly
1. Vacancy -- $14 million
2. Fracture -- $13 million
2. Disturbia -- $13 million
4. Meet the Robinsons -- $9 million
4. Blades of Glory -- $9 million
*Hot Fuzz -- $7 million
*In the Land of Women -- $6 million

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Posted at 02:13 PM in Advice and Analysis, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent, Weekly Tracking | Permalink

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