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Advice & Analysis: Weekly Tracking

Advice & Analysis: Reviews

April 27, 2007

THE SCORECARD: A Roundup of Predictions from the So-Called "Experts" for April 27-29

by Steve Mason

Each week, we round up the weekend box-office predictions of the so-called experts, including yours truly. The old show-business adage, "Nobody knows anything," is in full effect. We study and pore over the tracking figures, release plans, screen counts and reviews, and sometimes even see the films, but the moviegoing public is still too fickle and unpredictable for this to be a science rather than an art.

Hopefully, this weekly feature will keep me and the rest of the box-office authorities humble, and be instructive for Fantasy Moguls players. This week, all eight experts (technically, seven experts and the BoxOfficeMojo.com Derby Averages) agree that Next (Paramount) will win the weekend.

Five experts place The Invisible (Buena Vista) second, with the other three handing the runner-up slot to holdover Disturbia (Paramount).

All sources agree that The Condemned (Lionsgate) will finish in the Top 5, but there is wild disagreement on Kickin' It Old Skool (Yari). On the low end, Box Office Psychics predicts just $2.5 million for Kickin', and on the high end, Box Office Prophets has the Jamie Kennedy comedy scoring fourth place with $7.4 million.

Here are all of this week's "expert" predictions followed by an average of all of those predictions.

Please note:  Predictions are different from projections. Predictions are based on hunches. Projections, like the ones I will go online with tonight (Friday, April 27), are based on actual box office numbers. The numbers that I go online with every Friday are the earliest Friday and 3-Day projections available anywhere, and, as proven virtually every week, they are generally quite accurate.

AVERAGES OF ALL EIGHT SO-CALLED EXPERTS
1. Next (Paramount) -- $13.25 million
2. The Invisible (Buena Vista) -- $8.5 million
3. Disturbia (Paramount) -- $8.1 million
4. The Condemned (Lionsgate) -- $7.25 million
5. Fracture (New Line) -- $6.5 million
6. Blades of Glory (Paramount) -- $4.85 million
7. Kickin' It Old Skool (Yari) -- $4.6 million
8. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) -- $4.58 million
9. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) -- $4.5 million
10. Vacancy (Sony) -- $3.95 million
11. Are We Done Yet? (Sony) -- $3.1 million

Steve Mason, FantasyMoguls.com
1. Next (Paramount) -- $13 million
2. The Invisible (Buena Vista) -- $10.9 million
3. Disturbia (Paramount) -- $7.5 million
4. The Condemned (Lionsgate) -- $7.3 million
5. Fracture (New Line) -- $7.1 million
6. Blades of Glory (Paramount) -- $4.25 million
7. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) -- $3.85 million
8. Vacancy (Sony) -- $3.5 million
9. Are We Done Yet? (Sony) -- $2.9 million
10. Kickin' It Old Skool (Yari Film Group) -- $2.75 million

Gitesh Pandya, Box Office Guru
1. Next (Paramount) -- $13 million
2. Disturbia (Paramount) -- $8 million
3. Fracture (New Line) -- $6.5 million
4. The Condemned (Lionsgate) -- $6 million
5. The Invisible (Buena Vista) -- $5 million
5.  Kickin' It Old Skool (Yari Film Group) -- $5 million

 Box Office Report
1. Next (Paramount) -- $11 million
2. The Invisible (Buena Vista) -- $9 million
3. The Condemned (Lionsgate) -- $8 million
4. Disturbia (Paramount) -- $7.5 million
5. Fracture (New Line) -- $7 million
6. Kickin’ It Old Skool (Yari Film Group) -- $5.5 million
7. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) -- $5 million
8. Blades of Glory (Paramount) -- $4.8 million
9. Vacancy (Sony) -- $3.8 million
10. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) -- $3.5 million

Box Office Mojo Derby Averages
1. Next (Paramount) -- $14.9 million
2. The Invisible (Buena Vista) -- $9.9 million
3. Disturbia (Paramount) -- $8.8 million
4. The Condemned (Lionsgate) -- $7.9 million
5. Fracture (New Line) -- $7.3 million
6. Blades of Glory (Paramount) -- $5.5 million
7. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) -- $5.2 million
8. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) -- $5.1 million
8. Kickin' It Old Skool (Yari Film Group) -- $5.1 million
10. Vacancy (Sony) -- $4.8 million

Box Office Psychics
1. Next (Paramount) -- $12 million
2. Disturbia (Paramount) -- $9 million
3. The Invisible (Buena Vista) -- $8 million
4. The Condemned (Lionsgate) -- $7 million
5. Fracture (New Line) -- $5.5 million
6. Blades of Glory (Paramount) -- $5 million
7. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) -- $4.5 million
8. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) -- $4 million
9. Vacancy (Sony) -- $4 million
10. Are We Done Yet? (Sony) -- $3.5 million
* Kickin' It Old Skool (Yari Film Group) -- $2.5 million

Box Office Prophets
1. Next (Paramount) -- $14.3 million
2. The Invisible (Buena Vista) -- $9.2 million
3. Disturbia (Paramount) -- $7.9 million
4. Kickin' It Old Skool (Yari Film Group) -- $7.4 million
5. The Condemned (Lionsgate) -- $7.1 million
6. Fracture (New Line) -- $5.9 million
7. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) -- $5.7 million
8. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) -- $4.4 million
9. Vacancy (Sony) -- $3.7 million
10. Are We Done Yet? (Sony) -- $2.9 million

Coming Soon Weekend Warrior
1. Next (Paramount) -- $11.8 million
2. Disturbia (Paramount) -- $8.2 million
3. The Condemned (Lionsgate) -- $7.8 million
4. Fracture (New Line) -- $6.6 million
5. The Invisible (Buena Vista) -- $6.2 million
6. Blades of Glory (Paramount) -- $4.8 million
7. Kickin' It Old Skool (Yari Film Group) -- $4.6 million
8. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) -- $4.5 million
9. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) -- $4.2 million
10. Vacancy (Sony) -- $3.9 million

Entertainment Weekly
1. Next (Paramount) -- $16 million
2. The Invisible (Buena Vista) -- $10 million
3. Disturbia (Paramount) -- $8 million
4. The Condemned (Lionsgate) -- $7 million
5. Fracture (New Line) -- $6 million
* Kickin' It Old Skool (Yari Film Group) -- $4 million

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Posted at 02:48 PM in Advice and Analysis, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent, Weekly Tracking | Permalink

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