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Advice & Analysis: Reviews

April 13, 2007

WEEKEND TRACKING: Berry Has a Slight Edge over LeBeouf; 'Blades' Still Strong; 'Pathfinder,' 'Redline' and 'Aqua Teen' All Soft

by Steve Mason

Is America ready to forgive Halle Berry for Catwoman? Catwoman isn’t just a bad movie. It’s the 2005 Razzie Winner for Worst Picture, Worst Actress, Worst Director (somebody named Pitof) and Worst Screenplay (4 writers who’d love to wash their hands of it). Unfortunately, Sharon Stone failed to win for Worst Supporting Actress with the Razzie going instead to Britney Spears for her cameo in Fahrenheit 9/11. (C’mon, she was playing herself).

I saw this awful comic book adaptation on a cross-country flight back in 2004, and it was every bit as bad as critics described it. Here are some of the choice quotes:

“A purr-fectly ridiculous and boring cat-astrophe.” --- Lou Lumenick, NEW YORK POST

“Over-the-top and mostly preposterous, CATWOMAN just might be the MOMMIE DEAREST of comic-book-based movies.” -- Robert Denerstein, DENVER ROCKY MOUNTAIN NEWS

“The SHOWGIRLS of superhero movies.” -- Robert K. Elder, CHICAGO TRIBUNE “

SWORDFISH; GOTHIKA; this howler. Best Actress winner Halle Berry is getting dangerously close to exhausting her nine Hollywood lives.” -- Larry Carroll, FILMSTEW.COM

It was 104 minutes of cinematic weirdness unparalleled in recent film history, and as Larry Carroll accurately points out, it was on the heels of other badly-reviewed films like Gothika. Berry’s overall box office record has been spotty at best. She’s been fortunate to be part of the X-Men series, the James Bond franchise (Die Another Day), a major animated film (Robots) and a successful comic book adaptation (The Flintstones). Here are the Oscar winner’s all-time best openings and all-time top grosser.

All-Time Top Opening Weekends for Films Starring Halle Berry
1. X-Men: The Last Stand - $102.7 million
2. X2 - $85.5 million
3. X-Men - $54.4 million
4. Die Another Day - $47 million
5. Robots - $36 million
6. The Flintstones - $29.6 million
7. Gothika - $19.2 million
8. Swordfish - $18.1 million
9. Catwoman - $16.7 million
10. Boomerang - $13.6 million
11. Executive Decision - $12 million
12. The Last Boy Scout - $7.9 million
13. The Program - $6.8 million
14. Jungle Fever - $5.3 million
15. Why Do Fools Fall In Love? - $3.9 million

All-Time Top Box Office Hits for Films Starring Halle Berry
1. X-Men: The Last Stand - $234.3 million
2. X2 - $214.9 million
3. Die Another Day - $160.9 million
4. X-Men - $157.3 million
5. The Flintstones - $130.5 million
6. Robots - $128.2 million
7. Boomerang - $70 million
8. Swordfish - $69.7 million
9. The Last Boy Scout - $59.5 million
10. Gothika - $59.6 million
11. Executive Decision - $56.5 million
12. Catwoman - $40.2 million
13. Jungle Fever - $32.4 million
14. Monster’s Ball - $31.2 million
15. Bulworth - $26.5 million

As I reported early this week, Perfect Stranger (Sony), the new film starring Berry and Bruce Willis has solid solid industry tracking. Awareness, which measures how many people know about the film, is at 73%. That is much higher than Disturbia (54%) and the other 4 new major releases this weekend, but only 31% have Definite Interest in the Sony thriller set to open on 2,661 screens. It’s got great female appeal. In fact, it’s the First Choice of 15% of Females 25 Plus.

My studio sources, however, have serious concerns about Stranger. The Definite Interest number is an issue along with the fact that Females 25 Plus aren’t a very reliable demo. This crowd doesn’t always rush out to see a movie on its opening weekend. Plus, moviegoers that still feel “burned” by Catwoman may in fact hold it against her.

In the end, I’m placing my money on Perfect Stranger, but it’s not a big bet. I won’t be surprised if Paramount’s Disturbia wins the 3-day. The Hitchcock-style thriller is the First Choice of 10% of Males Under 25 and 13% of Females Under 25, plus Shia LaBeouf’s star is rapidly rising. He’s everywhere at the moment including a stint as host of Saturday Night Live this weekend. I’ll call for Stranger to do $14-$17 million and Disturbia to come in a notch lower at $13-$16 million.

The other 4 releases have major problems. They all have Total Aware numbers from 30%-35%. In the all important First Choice column, Aqua Teen Hunger Force (First Look) is at 3%, Pathfinder (Fox) is at 2% and both Slow Burn (Lionsgate) and Redline (Chicago) are at 1%. Fox should be able to muscle Pathfinder to $4-$7 million. The other 3 pictures will likely be under $5 million. One other potential surprise is a possibility. Blades of Glory (Paramount) has had a great mid-week, and it’s not impossible that the Ferrell/Heder comedy will pull off another weekend victory.

Here are my projections for the 3-day weekend:
1. Perfect Stranger (Sony) - $16.1 million

2. Disturbia (Paramount) - $14.9 million
3. Blades of Glory (Paramount) - $14.1 million
4. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) - $12 million
5. Are We Done Yet? (Sony) - $9 million
6. Grindhouse (Weinstein) - $6.7 million
7. Pathfinder (Fox) - $5.1 million
8. 300 (Warner Bros) - $5 million
9. The Reaping (Warner Bros) - $4.8 million
10. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) - $4.3 million
*Redline (Chicago) - $3.6 million
*SlowBurn (Lionsgate) - $2 million
*Aqua Teen Hunger Force (First Look) - $1.8 million

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Posted at 09:59 AM in Advice and Analysis, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent, Weekly Tracking | Permalink

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Comments

I agree that a Blades of Glory upset could occur. I reckon that Disturbia is gonna top the charts tho. Also think you may be wrong (but not by much)about Aqua Teen. I think $3 million is on the cards

Posted by: AndTheWinnerIs | April 13, 2007 at 12:23 PM

I'm predicting not that many good things for Halle Berry. As remarkable a presence as she is on-screen, she carries one of the worst Oscar-winning performances in "Monster's Ball". She is not star appeal and doesn't command attention like the execs are counting on. Neither does Bruce Willis outside of a wifebeater and the line "Yippeekayee mother[may I]". Kicks off one of the worst Aprils I can remember. Cheers!

Posted by: friskytiger81 | April 13, 2007 at 07:28 PM

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