There is a difference between predictions and projections. On Thursday, I make my box office predictions. There are lots of other "box-office swamis" across the World Wide Web, and starting tomorrow (Friday), I'll be rounding up as many of their predictions as I can and posting them here at FantasyMoguls.com.

Projections, which I go online with starting Friday night by midnight PT, are based on actual raw numbers. I've been refining my projection capabilities since long before we launched FantasyMoguls.com, and hopefully, you’ve detected a trend.

Our Friday and 3-Day projections go online before anybody else, and they're damn accurate. Here is how things went this past weekend.

Here are the projections that we went online with last Friday night, Apr. 13:

Disturbia -- $21 million
Blades of Glory -- $12.7 million
Meet the Robinsons -- $12.2 million
Perfect Stranger -- $10.9 million

Here are the actuals released Monday, Apr. 16:

Disturbia - $22.2 million
Blades of Glory - $13.8 million
Meet the Robinsons - $12.4 million
Perfect Stranger - $11.2 million

Now, it's time for another week of educated guessing with four new films and last week's champ Disturbia, a strong contender to win again. I'm going to put my money on Fracture (New Line), starring Anthony Hopkins and Ryan Gosling, for the win. It's rated R, which limits its potential audience, but its reviews are coming in solid-to-good, and its tracking numbers are slightly better-than-average.

In covering the press junket for Fracture, I was made keenly aware of the fact that Hopkins's character is very different than Hannibal Lecter, but, if I'm being honest, his performance echoes his most iconic role. There is lots of cat-and-mouse with Gosling's hotshot attorney character, and it's very reminiscent of Hannibal and Clarice in Silence of the Lambs.

To some degree, New Line has missed the boat on this film. If I was marketing the movie, I would have played up the similarity to Hopkins's Lecter role. Now, Hopkins and director Gregory Hoblit wouldn't have liked this, but New Line is a business, and they're trying to make money (especially after misfires like Code Name: The Cleaner and The Last Mimzy). Fracture would have cracked $20 million this weekend if New Line had played "the Lecter card." But they didn't. Still, they've got Gosling (The Notebook) in his first role since his Oscar nomination for Half Nelson (Thinkfilm) and Sir Anthony. 

It's helpful to look at Hopkins's all-time strongest opening weekends:

1. Hannibal -- $58 million
2. Mission Impossible II -- $57.8 million
3. How the Grinch Stole Christmas -- $55 million
4. Red Dragon -- $36.5 million
5. Bram Stoker’s Dracula -- $30.5 million
6. The Mask of Zorro -- $22.5 million
7. Meet Joe Black -- $15 million
8. Silence of the Lambs -- $13.7 million
9. Alexander -- $13.6 million
10. Instinct -- $10.3 million

Given the strong reviews and solid 25-Plus appeal, I'll put Fracture at the top of the heap for the weekend with $12-$15 million, outgrossing holdover Disturbia, which will likely be in the $10-$13 million range.

The other two wide releases (Hot Fuzz from Rogue will open on just 825 screens) are Vacancy (Sony) and In the Land of Women (Warner Bros.). Land of Women stars Adam Brody, a likeable kid from Fox's recently-canceled The O.C., along with Meg Ryan, Olympia Dukakis and some attractive young female stars. I just taped a television appearance for Dailies on The Reelz Channel, and I joked that if a guy goes to see this movie, he'll come down with a case of estrogen poisoning. The bottom line is that there are "chick flicks" and "flicks only for chicks." Now, the average movie-going male can buy a ticket to and enjoy The Devil Wears Prada or The Break-Up, but it's a different story when the flick seems to be made exclusively for chicks.

Here is a list of the top-grossing "chick flicks" released in the past 12 months:

1. The Devil Wears Prada -- $124.7 million
2. The Break-Up -- $118.7 million
3. You, Me & Dupree -- $75.6 million
4. Step Up -- $65.3 million
5. The Holiday -- $63.2 million
6. Music & Lyrics -- $50.2 million
7. Because I Said So -- $42.6 million
8. Take the Lead -- $34.7 million
9. Tyler Perry's Daddy's Little Girls -- $31.3 million
10. Catch & Release -- $15.5 million

It's tough to decide what is a "chick flick" and what's not, but I think that this list is pretty dead-on. Notice that as you move down the list, the titles get more and more female-driven. Red-blooded males could never announce to their buddies that they went to see Catch & Release, but, it's OK for a dude to say, "I took my girlfriend to see Me, You & Dupree."

Also, despite its decent First Choice number and its PG-13 rating, the awareness for In the Land of Women is still just 37 percent (although it does score 48 percent awareness with Females Under 25). I'm calling this movie higher than most, but it still looks like under $10 million to me. I'll predict $6-$9 million.

As I've written about pretty extensively here on FantasyMoguls.com, the horror genre has drifted out of fashion and profitability in the last year. No longer can any studio just put out a bloody scarefest and count on $15-$20 million. In fact no horror film, released so far in 2007, has opened with $15 million or more on opening weekend:

Jan. 12 -- Primeval, $6 million opening ($10.5 million cume)
Jan. 19 -- The Hitcher, $7.8 million opening ($16.4 million cume)
Jan. 26 -- Blood & Chocolate, $2 million opening ($3.5 million cume)
Feb. 2 -- The Messengers, $14.7 million opening ($35.3 million cume)
Feb. 9 -- Hannibal Rising, $13 million opening ($27.5 million cume)
Feb. 23 -- The Number 23, $14.6 million opening ($35.1 million cume)
Feb. 23 -- The Abandoned, $782,000 opening ($1.3 million cume)
Mar. 16 -- Dead Silence, $7.8 million opening ($16.5 million cume)
Mar. 23 -- The Hills Have Eyes 2, $9.6 million opening ($20.2 million cume)
Apr. 5 -- The Reaping, $10 million opening ($20.7 million cume)

Given the dismal slasher pic track record of late, I'm not looking for a major breakout for Vacancy, starring Kate Beckinsale and Luke Wilson. The campaign isn't half bad, and its aware numbers are very good (Males Under 25, 63 percent; Females Under 25, 57 percent; Males 25 Plus, 57 percent; and Females 25 Plus, 55 percent), but it will be likely be in the hunt for second place for the weekend, not first (it will be hurt by the R rating, but Sony has strong-armed this movie onto over 2,500 screens). Look for Vacancy to bank $10-$13 million by Monday morning.

Hot Fuzz will bow on 825 screens tomorrow (more than the expected 700), and there is some real buzz in the marketplace for this British send-up of buddy cop movies. I'm told that its Total Aware number is just 31 percent, but with Males Under 25, it's at 49 percent, and its First Choice number with Males 25 Plus is 7 percent (better than the other 3 new releases). Fuzz should deliver $6,000-$8,000 per screen  and finish with $5-$8 million.

Here are my predictions for this weekend (Apr. 20-22):
1. Fracture (New Line) -- $14.1 million
2. Disturbia (Paramount) -- $12 million
3. Vacancy (Sony) -- $11.3 million
4. Blades of Glory (Paramount) -- $8.9 million
5. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) -- $8.3 million
6. In the Land of Women (Warner Bros.) -- $7.7 million
7. Perfect Stranger (Sony) -- $6.8 million
8. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) -- $6 million
9. Are We Done Yet? (Sony) -- $5.7 million
10. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) -- $3 million