Next (Paramount) is the new sci-fi action/thriller from Joe Roth and Revolution Studios. I've seen this flick, based on a Phillip K. Dick short story, and it's not as bad as industry types have made it out to be. Try using that quote in print ads:

"Not as bad as industry types have made it out to be."
-- Steve Mason, FantasyMoguls.com

Revolution, which spawned the Halle Berry bomb Perfect Stranger (Sony) two weeks ago, has a deal with Sony, and nobody can explain why Paramount is releasing this title. Maybe the Joe Roth-Sony marriage is on the rocks? Or Sony took a look at the script and told Roth he had to take the movie elsewhere? Whatever the reason, it's probably not a good sign.

Next stars Nicolas Cage in his first starring role since $115.5 million hit Ghost Rider (Sony). In my Early Weekend Preview, I charted Cage's last dozen movies along with the percentage of positive reviews each title received at RottenTomatoes.com. Here is that same dozen pictures with their percentage of positive (or Fresh) reviews followed by their opening weekend take and total domestic box office.

Ghost Rider -- 27 percent Fresh, $45.3 million opening ($115.5 million cume)
The Wicker Man  -- 14 percent Fresh, $9.6 million opening ($23.6 million cume)
World Trade Center -- 71 percent Fresh, $18.7 million opening ($70.2 million cume)
The Ant Bully -- 62 percent Fresh, $8.4 million opening ($28.1 million cume)
The Weather Man -- 59 percent Fresh, $4.2 million opening ($12.4 million cume)
Lord of War -- 61 percent Fresh, $9.4 million opening ($24.1 million cume)
National Treasure -- 42 percent Fresh, $35.1 million opening ($173 million cume)
Matchstick Men -- 82 percent Fresh, $13 million opening ($36.9 million cume)
Adaptation -- 90 percent Fresh, $384,000 opening ($22.5 million cume)
Sonny -- 24 percent Fresh, $17,600 opening ($30,000 cume)
Windtalkers -- 35 percent Fresh, $14.5 million opening ($40.9 million cume)
Captain Corelli’s Mandolin -- 28 percent Fresh, $7.2 million opening ($25.5 million cume)

You can see that sometimes critics and moviegoers agree, as with World Trade Center (positive) and Wicker Man, Sonny, Windtalkers and Captain Corelli’s Mandolin (negative), but Cage has shown the ability to defy critics as well. In fact, his two biggest hits on this list either received a lukewarm to negative response (National Treasure) or were openly reviled (Ghost Rider). This is all my way of saying that with Cage movies, you just never know. Although Next won't be among Cage's all-time biggest openings, it's almost certain to be one of Jessica Biel's all-time Top Five:

1. The Texas Chainsaw Massacre -- $28 million opening
2. Blade: Trinity -- $16 million opening
3. Stealth -- $13.2 million opening
4. Elizabethtown -- $10.6 million opening
5. Cellular -- $10.1 million opening
6. Summer Catch -- $7 million opening
7. I'll Be Home For Christmas -- $3.9 million opening
8. The Rules of Attraction -- $2.5 million opening
9. The Illusionist -- $927,000 opening
10. Ulee's Gold -- $89,500 opening

Yesterday, I was calling for $14-$17 million for this Lee Tamahori-directed film, but today (Thursday), I'm lowering my target to $11-$14 million. With the biggest films of the year set to hit the marketplace starting next Friday, it would be a surprise for this movie to top $35 million domestic in its theatrical run.

David S. Goyer is among the hottest talents in Hollywood, and his new film, The Invisible (Buena Vista), could show surprising strength this weekend. His first produced screenplay was 1990's Death Warrant, and since then, his career trajectory has been virtually straight up.

1990 -- Death Warrant, $5 million opening ($16.8 million cume)
1991 -- Kickboxer 2: The Road Back, $444,000 opening ($1.25 million cume)
1994 -- The Puppet Masters, $4 million opening ($8.6 million cume)
1996 -- The Crow: City of Angels, $9.7 million opening ($17.9 million cume)
1998 -- Dark City, $5.5 million opening ($14.3 million cume)
1998 -- Blade, $17 million opening ($70 million cume)
2002 -- Blade II, $32.5 million opening ($82.4 million cume)
2004 -- Blade: Trinity, $16 million opening ($52.4 million cume)
2005 -- Batman Begins, $48.7 million opening ($205.3 million cume)

Goyer has also written 2008 release Jumper, directed by Doug Liman and starring Hayden Christensen, Samuel L. Jackson and Diane Lane for Fox; the Batman sequel The Dark Knight; and is currently working on The Flash, to be directed by Shawn Levy (Night at the Museum). Add to this resume the fact that he exec-produced Ghost Rider, and you've got a guy who clearly knows what he's doing.

Buena Vista will release The Invisible on 2,000 screens Friday, and this genre picture has a chance to out-perform last weekend's horror flick Vacancy (Sony). The main reason for the rosier outlook is its more audience-friendly PG-13 rating. Of the horror pics released in 2007, nine have been R-rated:

Jan. 12 -- Primeval, $6 million opening ($10.5 million cume)
Jan. 19 -- The Hitcher, $7.8 million opening ($16.4 million cume)
Feb. 9 -- Hannibal Rising, $13 million opening ($27.5 million cume)
Feb. 23 -- The Number 23, $14.6 million opening ($35.1 million cume)
Feb. 23 -- The Abandoned, $782,000 opening ($1.3 million cume)
March 16 -- Dead Silence, $7.8 million opening ($16.5 million cume)
March 23 -- The Hills Have Eyes 2, $9.6 million opening ($20.2 million cume)
April 5 -- The Reaping, $10 million opening ($22.9 million cume, still in release)
April 20 -- Vacancy, $7.6 million opening ($8.1 million cume, still in release)

There have been just two PG-13-rated films in the genre this year:

Jan. 26 -- Blood & Chocolate, $2 million opening ($3.5 million cume)
Feb. 2 -- The Messengers, $14.7 million opening ($35.3 million cume)

You've got to throw out Blood & Chocolate, which opened on just 1,200 screens and was distributed by struggling MGM, but the other PG-13-rated horror release, The Messengers (Sony), was able to win Super Bowl weekend. Disney is hoping that they have the next cool movie for Under 25s (including teens), and, if they were able to get their trailers on the head of Disturbia (Paramount) for the last couple of weeks, The Invisible might be able to grab the same audience. While Total Awareness for The Invisible is right around 50 percent, Under 25 Males and Under 25 Females are in in the mid-to-high 50 percent range. By no means are those spectacular numbers, but I think this ghost story has a chance to be in the $10-13 million range this weekend.

Lionsgate unleashes The Condemned on America's multiplexes, and it marks an important step for pro wrestling superstar "Stone Cold" Steve Austin. Professional wrestlers have a long and somewhat storied history on the big screen going all the way back to Lenny Montana, who played Luca Brasi in The Godfather, and Andre the Giant, who delivered a memorable performance as Fezzik in Rob Reiner's now-classic The Princess Bride. Here are the all-time Top 20 opening weekends for movies featuring professional wrestlers:

1. Spider-Man -- Randy Savage, $114.8 million opening
2. The Mummy Returns -- The Rock, $68.1 million opening
3. The Longest Yard -- Steve Austin, $47.6 million opening
4. The Scorpion King -- The Rock, $36 million opening
5. Be Cool -- The Rock, $23.4 million opening
6. The Rundown -- The Rock, $18.5 million opening
7. Walking Tall -- The Rock, $15.5 million opening
8. Doom -- The Rock, $15.4 million opening
9. Gridiron Gang -- The Rock, $14.4 million opening
10. Rocky III -- Hulk Hogan, $12.4 million opening
11. Predator -- Jesse Ventura, $12 million opening
12. Spy Hard -- Hulk Hogan, $10.4 million opening
13. Man On the Moon -- Jerry Lawler, $7.5 million opening
14. The Marine -- John Cena, $7.1 million opening
15. Road House -- Terry Funk, $5.9 million opening
16. Muppets From Space -- Hulk Hogan, $4.8 million opening
16. They Live -- Roddy Piper, $4.8 million opening
18. See No Evil -- Kane, $4.5 million opening
19. Mr. Nanny -- Hulk Hogan, $1.8 million opening
20. The Godfather -- Lenny Montana, $300,000 opening

And here are the all-time overall Top 20 grossing films featuring wrestling stars:

1. Spider-Man -- Randy Savage, $403.7 million
2. The Mummy Returns -- The Rock, $202 million
3. The Longest Yard -- Steve Austin, $158.1 million
4. The Godfather -- Lenny Montana, $135 million
5. Rocky III -- Hulk Hogan, $125 million
6. The Scorpion King -- The Rock, $91 million
7. Predator -- Jesse Ventura, $59.7 million
8. Be Cool -- The Rock, $56 million
9. The Rundown -- The Rock, $47.7 million
10. Walking Tall -- The Rock, $46.4 million
11. Gridiron Gang -- The Rock, $38.4 million
12. Man On the Moon -- Jerry Lawler, $34.6 million
13. The Princess Bride -- Andre the Giant, $30.8 million
14. Road House -- Terry Funk, $30 million
15. Doom -- The Rock, $28.2 million
16. Spy Hard -- Hulk Hogan, $26.9 million
17. The Marine -- John Cena, $18.8 million
18. Muppets From Space -- Hulk Hogan, $16.6 million
19. See No Evil -- Kane, $15 million
20. They Live -- Roddy Piper, $13 million

The Rock broke down the door for the most recent crop of wrestlers-turned-actors, and WWE impresario Vince McMahon, as a movie producer, provided him with two solid vehicles: The Rundown and the remake of Walking Tall. McMahon flopped with Kane's film debut, See No Evil, and scored only slightly better with John Cena in last year's The Marine. Women will not agree to seeing The Condemned on date night, which is a major handicap, but, as I wrote in my review, this is a fun "B" movie experience worthy of Tarantino and Rodriguez and their recent Grindhouse (Weinstein Co.). Women aren't likely to deal with this much testosterone, but Under 25 Males are Aware of The Condemned (52 percent), and they have Definite Interest (38 percent), so this picture will do some business. In the final analysis, the R rating combined with the fact that women have no interest in it, means that it won't break out in a huge way, but $6-$9 million is definitely doable.

The final of four flawed offerings this week is the Jamie Kennedy comedy Kickin' It Old Skool (Yari Film Group). Jamie is a talented guy. His Jamie Kennedy Experiment TV series, which plays like a twisted Candid Camera, has some inspired moments, but Kickin' is a rehash of his only marginally successful Malibu's Most Wanted. Here are Jamie's all-time Top 10 openings.

1. Scream 2 -- $32.9 million opening
2. Dr. Dolittle 2 -- $25 million opening
3. Enemy of the State -- $20 million opening
4. Bowfinger -- $18 million opening
5. Three Kings -- $15.8 million opening
6. Malibu's Most Wanted -- $12.6 million opening
7. Romeo + Juliet -- $11.1 million opening
8. Son of the Mask -- $7.5 million opening
9. Scream -- $6.3 million opening
10. Boiler Room -- $5.7 million opening

It's a longshot to think that his new movie will even crack his personal Top 10 this weekend. One of the reasons is his distributor. Yari Film Group launched as a distributor last year with Vin Diesel in Find Me Guilty. Here is Yari's brief track record as a distributor.

March 2006 -- Find Me Guilty, $608,000 opening ($1.2 million cume)
Aug. 2006 -- The Illusionist, $928,000 opening ($39 million cume)
Sept. 2006 -- Haven, $38,000 opening ($142,000 cume)
Feb. 2007 -- Gray Matters, $25,000 opening ($71,000 cume)
March 2007 -- First Snow, $15,000 opening ($197,000 cume, still in release)

The Illusionist was a huge success in arthouses and high-end commercial venues, but the other films have struggled mightily. They've got interesting high-end commercial films on the way like gambling saga Even Money on May 18 and Shortcut to Happiness on July 13, but they just don't have the "muscle" to break out a wide release commercial film -- at least not yet. Kickin' It Old Skool will finish the 3-day with no more than $2-$5 million.

Here are my final predictions for this weekend, April 27-29:
1. Next (Paramount) -- $13 million
2. The Invisible (Buena Vista) -- $10.9 million
3. Disturbia (Paramount) -- $7.5 million
4. The Condemned (Lionsgate) -- $7.3 million
5. Fracture (New Line) -- $7.1 million
6. Blades of Glory (Paramount) -- $4.25 million
7. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) -- $3.85 million
8. Vacancy (Sony) -- $3.5 million
9. Are We Done Yet? (Sony) -- $2.9 million
10. Kickin' It Old Skool (Yari Film Group) -- $2.75 million

On Friday, we'll round up the predictions of all of the internet's so-called box-office "experts" in The Scorecard, and, as always, by Friday night at midnight (Pacific), we'll call the winners and losers with our Exclusive FantasyMoguls.com Early Friday and 3-Day Estimates.