EXCLUSIVE EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES: The Record Falls! 'Spider-Man 3' Delivers $58M Friday & $147M Weekend
by Steve Mason
Captain Jack Sparrow will no longer be the all-time opening-weekend box office champion. Sony’s Spider-Man 3 will top last summer’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest by a surprisingly comfortable margin. The third chapter of Sam Raimi’s superhero franchise is kicking off the weekend with an estimated $58 million on Friday, which should translate to a staggering $147 million weekend.
After breaking opening day box office records across the planet this week - from Italy to Egypt to Japan – it seemed almost certain that Spidey would break this record. In our FantasyMoguls.com Scorecard, which tracks box office predictions of so-called “experts,” 5 of 9 prognosticators including Brandon Gray from Box Office Mojo, Gitesh Pandya from Box Office Guru, Joshua Rich from Entertainment Weekly and yours truly from Fantasy Moguls all had Spider-Man 3 hitting a record-breaking weekend number.
The only thing that seemed to dampen hopes was a lukewarm reaction from critics. As far as reviews go, SM3 is running at 69% positive (or Fresh) at RottenTomatoes.com, and when you break out the best critics, the "Cream of the Crop", the review score drops to 53%.
Here’s how that compares to the first 2 Spidey chapters:
RottenTomatoes.com
Spider-Man - 90% Fresh ("Cream of the Crop" – 84%)
Spider-Man 2 - 93% Fresh ("Cream of the Crop" – 95%)
Spider-Man 3 - 69% Fresh ("Cream of the Crop" – 53%)
MetaCritic.com is another clearinghouse for reviews, but they have a different methodology. They assign each review a number from 1-100 and create an average. Here is how the Spider-Man reviews stack up there:
MetaCritic.com
Spider-Man – 73
Spider-Man 2 – 83
Spider-Man 3 – 59
The reviews haven’t mattered a lick. The running time of 2 hours 20 minutes hasn’t hurt either (mitigated by the record 10,500+ screens showing SM3, a fact I first reported on Tuesday).
On Monday morning, the official list of the all-time top 10 opening weekend box office openings will look like this.
1. 05/04/07 – Spider-Man 3 - $147 million
2. 07/07/06 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest - $135.6 million
3. 05/03/02 – Spider-Man - $114.8 million
4. 05/19/05 – Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith - $108.4 million
5. 05/19/04 – Shrek 2 - $108 million
6. 05/26/06 – X-Men: The Last Stand - $102.7 million
7. 11/18/05 – Harry Potter & the Goblet of Fire - $102.6 million
8. 06/04/04 – Harry Potter & the Prisoner of Azkaban - $93.7 million
9. 05/15/03 – The Matrix Reloaded - $91.7 million
10. 11/16/01 – Harry Potter & the Sorcerer’s Stone - $90.3 million
The big question for Hollywood is, “How many more of this summer’s blockbusters will crack this top 10?” Shrek the Third (Paramount/Dreamworks), Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (Buena Vista) and Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros) are the leading contenders and maybe even Transformers (Paramount/Dreamworks) can reach this elite class.
The only other new wide release this weekend was the long-delayed Lucky You (Warner Bros) from writer/director Curtis Hanson (L.A. Confidential, In Her Shoes). This love story with a Vegas poker tournament as a backdrop is now officially a full-scale disaster. Despite the presence of Eric Bana, Drew Barrymore and Robert Duvall, $1 million on Friday and $3 million for the weekend is anything but Lucky.
I’ll be posting a number of updates this weekend. Come back Saturday for updated estimates. Here are the estimates as of Friday night:
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS.COM EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $58 million
2. Disturbia (Paramount) - $2 million
3. The Invisible (Buena Vista) - $1.2 million
4. Fracture (New Line) - $1.1 million
5. Lucky You (Warner Bros) - $1 million
6. Next (Paramount) - $950,000
7. Blades of Glory (Paramount) - $850,000
8. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) - $655,000
9. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) - $635,000
10. Are We Done Yet? (Sony) - $450,000
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $147 million [$147 million cume]
2. Disturbia (Paramount) - $5.75 million [$59.9 million]
3. Fracture (New Line) - $3.65 million [$26.7 million]
4. The Invisible (Buena Vista) - $3.5 million [$12.7 million]
5. Next (Paramount) - $3.1 million [$12.1 million]
6. Lucky You (Warner Bros) - $3 million [$3 million]
7. Blades of Glory (Paramount) - $2.7 million [$112 million]
8. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) - $2.45 million [$91.75 million]
9. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) - $2 million [$16.1 million]
10. Are We Done Yet? (Sony) - $1.2 million [$45.6 million]
Whoa those are crazy numbers Steve. Hopefully it cracks the $150M mark. Because last year when early projections had Dead Man's Chest at $132M it's actual was $135M, so maybe Spidey 3 can get $150M. Can it Steve?
Also, just wondering how exactly are those early friday estimates calculated?
Posted by: tuan69 | May 05, 2007 at 02:16 AM
I went to see the premier of Spidey 3 at the imax theater in Seattle, WA and I have to say that the feeling I recieved from everyone there is that this is the best of the 3. From geeks to those who have never even cracked a comic book the overall reaction was awesome. I then went Friday night to see it again with another friend and I was overwhelmed at the site of the lines of people waiting to see this long awaited movie. This spiderman has you laughing, frightened for Spidey, and in the end triuphing with much deserved tears. I believe that it will beat the record set by Pirates of the Carabian, and I can't wait to see the estimates.
Posted by: Michele | May 05, 2007 at 05:10 AM