ALL-TIME TOP SINGLE DAY GROSSES
1. Spider-Man 3 – 5/4/07 - $59.8M
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest – 7/7/06 - $55.8M
3. Spider-Man 3 – 5/5/07 - $51.3M
4. Star Wars: Episode III – The Revenge of the Sith – 5/19/05 - $50M
5. Shrek the Third – 5/19/07 - $47M
6. X-Men: The Last Stand – 5/26/06 - $45.1M
7. Shrek 2 – 5/22/04 - $44.8M
8. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest – 7/8/06 - $44.4M
9. Spider-Man – 5/4/02 - $43.6M
10. Star Wars: Episode III – The Revenge of the Sith – 5/21/05 - $40.7M
11. Spider-Man 2 – 6/30/04 - $40.4M
12. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire – 11/18/05 - $40.1M
13. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End – 5/25/07 - $40M

That means that Gore Verbinski’s pirate extravaganza will not challenge Spider-Man 3’s opening 3-day weekend record of $151M. My studio sources tell me that P3: AWE will likely finish with a moderately disappointing 3-day of $105.5M, which will make it only the all-time 7th-best opening weekend, and a major step down not just from SM3, but also well behind last weekend’s Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) opening.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENING 3-DAY WEEKENDS
1. Spider-Man 3 - $151.1M
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest - $135.6M
3. Shrek the Third - $121.6M
4. Spider-Man - $114.8M
5. Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith - $108.4M
6. Shrek 2 - $108M
7. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End - $105.5M
8. X-Men: The Last Stand - $102.7M
9. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - $102.6M
10. Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban - $93.6M

Now Captain Jack will need to focus on outperforming X-Men: The Last Stand’s $122.8M for the all-time top 4-day Memorial Day opening weekend. My sources say that At World’s End will manage $127.5M Friday thru Monday, enough for the record.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 4-DAY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND OPENINGS
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End - $127.5M
2. X-Men: The Last Stand (Fox) - $122.8M
3. The Lost World: Jurassic Park (Universal) - $90.1M
4. The Day After Tomorrow (Fox) - $85.8M
5. Bruce Almighty (Universal) - $85.7M
6. Pearl Harbor (Buena Vista) - $75.1M
7. Mission Impossible II (Paramount) - $70.8M
8. Madagascar (Dreamworks) - $61M
9. The Longest Yard (Paramount) - $58.6M
10. Mission Impossible (Paramount) - $56.8M

Don’t forget that P3 banked $17M Thursday night, making its 4 1/2-day take a terrific $144.5M, but that’s a far cry from those that predicted $180M-$200M.

Meanwhile, Shrek the Third took a huge drop of approximately 60%, but the lovable ogre still grabbed $15M on Friday. The Dreamworks animated family flick will generate $55M for the 3-day, and its 4-day haul will be an estimated $70M. Sony’s Spider-Man 3 picked up $4.25M in Friday business, which will translate to $15.5 by the end of Sunday business and $19M by Tuesday morning. Sometime on Sunday, SM3 will pass the $300M threshhold and Shrek the Third will blow past $200M.

The only other new release was a misguided bit of counter-programming from Lionsgate. The William Friedkin-directed Bug only sold $1.2M in tickets to start the weekend, and its 3-day will likely be $3.5M and its 4-day will be a meager $4.2M

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (Buena Vista) - $40M [$57M cume]
2. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $15M [$165.3M cume]
3. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $4.25M [$293.9M cume]
4. Bug (Lionsgate) - $1.2M [$1.2M cume]
5. 28 Weeks Later (Fox Atomic) - $600,000 [$21.7M cume]
6. Waitress (Fox Searchlight) - $550,000 [$3M cume]
7. Disturbia (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $500,000 [$73M cume]
8. Georgia Rule (Universal) - $445,000 [$14.8M cume]
9. Fracture (New Line) - $305,000 [$35.8M cume]
10. Away from Her (Lionsgate) - $175,000 [$1.8M cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 4-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (Buena Vista) - $127.5M [$144.5M cume]
2. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $70M [$220.3M cume]
3. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $19M [$308.6M cume]
4. Bug (Lionsgate) - $4.2M [$4.2M cume]
5. Waitress (Fox Searchlight) - $2.9M [$5.4M cume]
6. 28 Weeks Later (Fox Atomic) - $2.7M [$23.8M cume]
7. Disturbia (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $2M [$74.5M cume]
7. Georgia Rule (Universal) - $2M [$16.4M cume]
9. Fracture (New Line) - $2.278 - $1.35M [$36.8M cume]
10. Away from Her (Lionsgate) – $800,000 [$2.4M cume]

FRIDAY AM: My studio sources are telling me that Captain Jack Sparrow has sailed to a phenomenal $17M in Thursday night business giving it, unofficially, the 6th-biggest Thursday in movie history – and Buena Vista didn’t allow screenings until 8pm! $17M is Disney’s early number, which means that it will almost certainly be adjusted upward at some point. Competing studios are telling me that the actual number may be in the $18-$20M range giving it the all-time 5th-best Thursday.

1. Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith - $50M
2. The Matrix Reloaded - $37.5M
3. Star Wars: Episode II – Attack of the Clones - $30.1M
4. Spider-Man 2 - $23.8M
5. Independence Day - $17.3M
6. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End – Early Estimate $17M
7. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King - $17M
8. Men in Black II - $16.4M
9. The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers - $15.4M
10. Wild, Wild West - $14.9M

The $300M+ Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End has gotten a huge jump on the 4-day Memorial Day weekend at a record 4,362 locations. I’m told that the 4 1/2 day take is a cinch for $160M and could go as high as $180M. When it's all over, the Spider-Man 3 (Sony) 3-day record of $151M will be safe, but AWE will be the new all-time Memorial Day weekend champ blowing past current record-holder X-Men: The Last Stand.

Updates all weekend as more numbers pour in.