SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE: 'Pirates' softer-than-expected!; P3 Friday only #10 all-time single day gross; 3-day of $105.5M, far behind 'SM3' and 'Shrek 3'; 'AWE' still headed for 4-day of $127.5M and 4 1/2-day of $144.5M
by Steve Mason
SATURDAY AM: “Aaaaaaaargh!” That’s probably what Disney execs are saying this morning. One of the three major May sequels was bound to disappoint, and it appears that it’ll be Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End.
Friday night, I reported a an estimated $40M for P3 on Friday, and the always dead-on Box Office Mojo has just released $43M. (I’m happy with getting within 7% of the number.) When I woke up this morning, I saw that Nikki Finke from LA Weekly was reporting $55.8M for Friday (maybe she included the Thursday night business?), but here are BOM’s Friday estimates followed by my Friday night estimates (reported last night) and the percentage that I was off.
BOX OFFICE MOJO FRIDAY ESTIMATES – released Saturday morning
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (Buena Vista) - $43M
FM Friday night estimate - $40M – Missed by 7%
2. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $14.4M
FM Friday night estimate - $15M - Missed by 4%
3. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) – $3.85M
FM Friday night estimate - $4.25M - Missed by 9%
4. Bug (Lionsgate) – $1.1M
FM Friday night estimate - $1.2M - Missed by 8%
5. Waitress (Fox Searchlight) – $750,000
FM Friday night estimate - $550,000 - Missed by 27%
6. 28 Weeks Later (Fox Atomic) – $700,000
FM Friday night estimate - $600,000 - Missed by 14%
7. Disturbia (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $540,000
FM Friday night estimate - $500,000 - Missed by 7%
8. Georgia Rule (Universal) – $470,000
FM Friday night estimate - $445,000 - Missed by 5%
9. Fracture (New Line) – $290,000
FM Friday night estimate - $305,000 - Missed by 5%
10. Away from Her (Lionsgate) – $200,000
FM Friday night estimate - $175,000 - Missed by 12%
I made a round of calls to studio execs this morning, and my 3-day and 4-day estimates are unchanged (scroll down to read them in my Friday PM update). The consensus is that Pirates: At World's End will have a 3-day of approximately $105.5M (No. 7 all-time), a 4-day Memorial Day weekend of $127.5M (#1 all-time) and a 5-day of $144.5M. Shrek the Third will score an estimated $55M for the 3-day and a likely $70M for the 4-day, while Spider-Man 3 should grab $15.5M and $19M respectively.
These numbers are very good, but Disney will need to put the “spin machine” in overdrive. This is a great reason for studios to be very aggressive in managing expectations. Fanboys and certain media types have been writing for weeks about Pirates eclipsing Spider-Man 3’s 3-day record and generating $200M during the Thursday thru Monday period, and now, the $350M+ epic will need to battle not just its 2-hour, 47-minute running time, but also the definite sense of disappointment in certain circles.
I have felt all along that Pirates 3 would have an uphill battle. It’s highly unusual for a major motion picture to be “locked” so late and to not be shown to anyone until 10 days before opening. It is odd that Disney didn’t allow junket reporters to bring a guest to its media screening of the movie, and I believe it was a mistake to open Thursday night.
Those coast-to-coast sellout showings on Thursday night did two things. First, they took “the heat” out of the movie’s Friday opening. Disney dramatically reduced the anticipation and demand for At World’s End. Second, the breathless reporting of the $17M in Thursday night business raised expectations. Fanboys and entertainment writers assumed that $17M in one night would mean a single-day record on Friday and a new 3-day record. Pirates 3 is, by no means, a failure, but it will now be perceived as less than the No. 1 movie of the summer, which people have been expecting.
In a number of appearances on the Reelz Channel, the excellent new cable outlet devoted to movies, my prediction for the top three movies for the summer have been No. 1 Shrek the Third, No. 2 Spider-Man 3 and No. 3 Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount). Tomorrow (Sunday), Spidey will top $300M and Shrek will exceed $200M, and the softer-than-expected opening for Pirates: At World's End now puts the #3 spot in play. I’ll stick with Transformers, but Harry Potter 5 is another contender.
Meanwhile in the PTA race, Pirates will sail to an easy win with just under $30,000 per location, followed by Sony Classics anime offering Paprika with something in the $22,000 range. Once (Fox Searchlight), the critically-acclaimed Sundance favorite will likely finish third followed by Shrek the Third and new release The Golden Door (Miramax), a film about Italian immigrants coming to America in the early part of the last century that is “presented” by Martin Scorsese.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY FRIDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (Buena Vista) – 4,362 locations - $9,858 PTA
2. Paprika (Sony Classics) – 2 locations - $5,887 PTA
3. Once (Fox Searchlight) – 20 locations - $3,772 PTA
4. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) – 4,172 locations - $3,452 PTA
5. The Golden Door (Miramax) – 2 locations - $2,999 PTA
6. The Boss of it All (IFC Films) – 1 location - $2,177 PTA
7. Paris, Je T’aime (First Look) – 58 locations - $1,935 PTA
8. Chalk (Independent) – 3 locations - $1,718 PTA
9. Waitress (Fox Searchlight) – 510 locations - $1,471 PTA
10. Private Property (New Yorker) - $1,357 PTA
EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 4-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (Buena Vista) - $29,229 PTA
2. Paprika (Sony Classics) – 2 locations - $22,987 PTA
3. Once (Fox Searchlight) – 20 locations - $17,372 PTA
4. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) – 4,172 locations - $16,778 PTA
5. The Golden Door (Miramax) – 2 locations - $12,349 PTA
6. The Boss of it All (IFC Films) – 1 location - $9,527 PTA
7. Paris, Je T’aime (First Look) – 58 locations - $8,435 PTA
8. Chalk (Independent) – 3 locations - $7,218 PTA
9. Waitress (Fox Searchlight) – 510 locations - $6,862 PTA
10.Private Property (New Yorker) - $5,657 PTA
FRIDAY PM: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (Buena Vista) is a great, big, monstrous hit, but fanboys may be a little let down by its Friday take of an estimated $40M. This is a terrific number, but it may not even rate as one of the all-time top 10 single day grosses, lagging far behind the May 4 opening day of Spider-Man 3 (Sony), last summer’s Pirates 2 opening day and SM3’s May 5 opening Saturday.
ALL-TIME TOP SINGLE DAY GROSSES
1. Spider-Man 3 – 5/4/07 - $59.8M
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest – 7/7/06 - $55.8M
3. Spider-Man 3 – 5/5/07 - $51.3M
4. Star Wars: Episode III – The Revenge of the Sith – 5/19/05 - $50M
5. Shrek the Third – 5/19/07 - $47M
6. X-Men: The Last Stand – 5/26/06 - $45.1M
7. Shrek 2 – 5/22/04 - $44.8M
8. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest – 7/8/06 - $44.4M
9. Spider-Man – 5/4/02 - $43.6M
10. Star Wars: Episode III – The Revenge of the Sith – 5/21/05 - $40.7M
11. Spider-Man 2 – 6/30/04 - $40.4M
12. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire – 11/18/05 - $40.1M
13. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End – 5/25/07 - $40M
That means that Gore Verbinski’s pirate extravaganza will not challenge Spider-Man 3’s opening 3-day weekend record of $151M. My studio sources tell me that P3: AWE will likely finish with a moderately disappointing 3-day of $105.5M, which will make it only the all-time 7th-best opening weekend, and a major step down not just from SM3, but also well behind last weekend’s Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) opening.
ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENING 3-DAY WEEKENDS
1. Spider-Man 3 - $151.1M
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest - $135.6M
3. Shrek the Third - $121.6M
4. Spider-Man - $114.8M
5. Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith - $108.4M
6. Shrek 2 - $108M
7. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End - $105.5M
8. X-Men: The Last Stand - $102.7M
9. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - $102.6M
10. Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban - $93.6M
Now Captain Jack will need to focus on outperforming X-Men: The Last Stand’s $122.8M for the all-time top 4-day Memorial Day opening weekend. My sources say that At World’s End will manage $127.5M Friday thru Monday, enough for the record.
ALL-TIME TOP 10 4-DAY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND OPENINGS
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End - $127.5M
2. X-Men: The Last Stand (Fox) - $122.8M
3. The Lost World: Jurassic Park (Universal) - $90.1M
4. The Day After Tomorrow (Fox) - $85.8M
5. Bruce Almighty (Universal) - $85.7M
6. Pearl Harbor (Buena Vista) - $75.1M
7. Mission Impossible II (Paramount) - $70.8M
8. Madagascar (Dreamworks) - $61M
9. The Longest Yard (Paramount) - $58.6M
10. Mission Impossible (Paramount) - $56.8M
Don’t forget that P3 banked $17M Thursday night, making its 4 1/2-day take a terrific $144.5M, but that’s a far cry from those that predicted $180M-$200M.
Meanwhile, Shrek the Third took a huge drop of approximately 60%, but the lovable ogre still grabbed $15M on Friday. The Dreamworks animated family flick will generate $55M for the 3-day, and its 4-day haul will be an estimated $70M. Sony’s Spider-Man 3 picked up $4.25M in Friday business, which will translate to $15.5 by the end of Sunday business and $19M by Tuesday morning. Sometime on Sunday, SM3 will pass the $300M threshhold and Shrek the Third will blow past $200M.
The only other new release was a misguided bit of counter-programming from Lionsgate. The William Friedkin-directed Bug only sold $1.2M in tickets to start the weekend, and its 3-day will likely be $3.5M and its 4-day will be a meager $4.2M
EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (Buena Vista) - $40M [$57M cume]
2. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $15M [$165.3M cume]
3. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $4.25M [$293.9M cume]
4. Bug (Lionsgate) - $1.2M [$1.2M cume]
5. 28 Weeks Later (Fox Atomic) - $600,000 [$21.7M cume]
6. Waitress (Fox Searchlight) - $550,000 [$3M cume]
7. Disturbia (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $500,000 [$73M cume]
8. Georgia Rule (Universal) - $445,000 [$14.8M cume]
9. Fracture (New Line) - $305,000 [$35.8M cume]
10. Away from Her (Lionsgate) - $175,000 [$1.8M cume]
EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (Buena Vista) - $105.5M [$122.5M cume]
2. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $55M [$205.3M cume]
3. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $15.5M [$305.1M cume]
4. Bug (Lionsgate) - $3.5M [$3.5M cume]
5. Waitress (Fox Searchlight) - $2.4M [$4.9M cume]
6. 28 Weeks Later (Fox Atomic) - $2.1M [$23.2M cume]
7. Disturbia (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $1.7M [$74.2M cume]
8. Georgia Rule (Universal) - $1.55M [$16M cume]
9. Fracture (New Line) - $1M [$36.5M cume]
10. Away from Her (Lionsgate) – $650,000 [$2.2M cume]
EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 4-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (Buena Vista) - $127.5M [$144.5M cume]
2. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $70M [$220.3M cume]
3. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $19M [$308.6M cume]
4. Bug (Lionsgate) - $4.2M [$4.2M cume]
5. Waitress (Fox Searchlight) - $2.9M [$5.4M cume]
6. 28 Weeks Later (Fox Atomic) - $2.7M [$23.8M cume]
7. Disturbia (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $2M [$74.5M cume]
7. Georgia Rule (Universal) - $2M [$16.4M cume]
9. Fracture (New Line) - $2.278 - $1.35M [$36.8M cume]
10. Away from Her (Lionsgate) – $800,000 [$2.4M cume]
FRIDAY AM: My studio sources are telling me that Captain Jack Sparrow has sailed to a phenomenal $17M in Thursday night business giving it, unofficially, the 6th-biggest Thursday in movie history – and Buena Vista didn’t allow screenings until 8pm! $17M is Disney’s early number, which means that it will almost certainly be adjusted upward at some point. Competing studios are telling me that the actual number may be in the $18-$20M range giving it the all-time 5th-best Thursday.
1. Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith - $50M
2. The Matrix Reloaded - $37.5M
3. Star Wars: Episode II – Attack of the Clones - $30.1M
4. Spider-Man 2 - $23.8M
5. Independence Day - $17.3M
6. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End – Early Estimate $17M
7. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King - $17M
8. Men in Black II - $16.4M
9. The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers - $15.4M
10. Wild, Wild West - $14.9M
The $300M+ Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End has gotten a huge jump on the 4-day Memorial Day weekend at a record 4,362 locations. I’m told that the 4 1/2 day take is a cinch for $160M and could go as high as $180M. When it's all over, the Spider-Man 3 (Sony) 3-day record of $151M will be safe, but AWE will be the new all-time Memorial Day weekend champ blowing past current record-holder X-Men: The Last Stand.
Updates all weekend as more numbers pour in.
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