1. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $59 million

2. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest (Buena Vista) - $55.8 million

3. Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith (Fox) - $50 million

4. X-Men: The Last Stand (Fox) - $45.1 million

5. Spider-Man 2 (Sony) - $40.4 million

6. Harry Potter & the Goblet of Fire (Warner Bros) - $40.1 million

7. Spider-Man (Sony) - $39.4 million

8. Harry Potter & the Prisoner of Azkaban (Warner Bros) - $38.3 million

9. The Matrix Reloaded (Warner Bros) - $37.5 million

10. The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (New Line) - $34.5 million

My 3-day figure I went with last night was $147 million, and I’m sticking with it, although one of my studio sources think it’s aggressive. Normally, you would expect a Saturday drop on a summer blockbuster like this, but because it’s not quite summer, and kids were in school yesterday, I’m banking on a slight increase Friday to Saturday. Then Sunday should be a basic 65% of Saturday business. I’m staying with $147 million because Sony is telling everyone $135-$145 million. They have been playing the silly “lower expectations” game for weeks. As late as Thursday, they were telling people, “We’ll be happy if we get to $100 million” and “Split the difference between Spidey 1 and 2.” The truth is that if this movie didn’t open bigger than 2002’s Spider-Man, at $114.8 million, there would be Sony execs on ledges right now. As one competing studio guy told me, “There was no way they could miss. The record has been a ‘done deal’ for weeks.”

A couple of weeks ago, I was speaking with Anne Thompson from Variety, and she believes that Spider-Man 3 has a huge advantage against Shrek the Third (Paramount/Dreamworks) and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (Buena Vista) because it’s coming out first. I disagree, and so do several of my studio sources. As one exec told me last night, Spider-Man 3 has an “unrestrained front end,” meaning that it is virtually no competition. No other picture on the summer slate will have a 2nd place movie with less than $6 million like SM3 does, but the weekend drops for Spidey are going to be huge. So many people are seeing this picture so fast that it will tail off quickly, and with Shrek the Third getting multiple screens in many locations, it’ll take a big bite.

Then, with Pirates, at almost 3 hours on Memorial Day weekend, exhibitors will need even more screens per location in order to maximize their revenue. That will squeeze Sony out of a very high percentage of its multiple screen locations. Multiple screens are the major reason that Spidey is breaking records. As I first reported Tuesday, the movie is on 10,500+ screens at over 4,200 locations. In fact, one top level studio exec says that of Regal Entertainment Group’s 6,200 or so screens, 1/3 are playing Spider-Man 3. That’s market domination! Not that the rest of the movies matter, but here are the numbers I put out last night with $1 million added to Spider-Man’s Friday gross.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS.COM EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES

1. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $59 million

2. Disturbia (Paramount) - $2 million

3. The Invisible (Buena Vista) - $1.2 million

4. Fracture (New Line) - $1.1 million

5. Lucky You (Warner Bros) - $1 million

6. Next (Paramount) - $950,000

7. Blades of Glory (Paramount) - $850,000

8. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) - $655,000

9. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) - $635,000

10. Are We Done Yet? (Sony) - $450,000

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES

1. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $147 million [$147 million]

2. Disturbia (Paramount) - $5.75 million [$59.9 million]

3. Fracture (New Line) - $3.65 million [$26.7 million]

4. The Invisible (Buena Vista) - $3.5 million [$12.7 million]

5. Next (Paramount) - $3.1 million [$12.1 million]

6. Lucky You (Warner Bros) - $3 million [$3 million]

7. Blades of Glory (Paramount) - $2.7 million [$112 million]

8. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) - $2.45 million [$91.75 million]

9. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) - $2 million [$16.1 million]

10. Are We Done Yet? (Sony) - $1.2 million [$45.6 million]

Spider-Man 3 will also easily win the weekend’s PTA race delivering $13,875 per location yesterday and an expected $34,571 per for the 3-day. There were, however, 3 solid debuts for specialty films. The well-reviewed Waitress (Fox Searchlight), starring Keri Russell, will generate close to 20,000 per location over the weekend for a strong 2nd place finish followed by the excellent Paris Je T’aime (First Look) with just under $17,000 per. In 4th place, Sarah Polley’s critically-acclaimed Away From Her (Lionsgate), starring Julie Christie and Michael Murphy, should finish the 3-day with a PTA of approximately $7,000.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS.COM EARLY FRIDAY PTA ESTIMATES

• Spider-Man 3 (Sony) – 4,252 locations – $13,875 PTA
• Waitress (Fox Searchlight) – 4 locations – $6,469 PTA
• Paris, Je T’aime (First Look) – 2 locations – $5,195 PTA
• Away From Her (Lionsgate) – 4 locations – $2,275 PTA
• The Treatment (New Yorker) – 2 locations – $1,879 PTA
• Munna (Independent Bollywood) – 1 location – $1,864 PTA
• Triad Election (Tartan Releasing) – 2 locations – $1,792 PTA
• The Valet (Sony Classics) – 28 locations – $1,367 PTA
• Zoo (Thinkfilm) – 2 locations – $1,280 PTA
• Buddy (Independent) – 3 locations - $1,197 PTA

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES

• Spider-Man 3 (Sony) – 4,252 locations – $34,571 PTA
• Waitress (Fox Searchlight) – 4 locations – $19,569 PTA
• Paris, Je T’aime (First Look) – 2 locations – $16,895 PTA
• Away From Her (Lionsgate) – 4 locations – $6,975 PTA
• The Treatment (New Yorker) – 2 locations – $5,429 PTA
• Munna (Independent Bollywood) – 1 location – $4,964 PTA
• Triad Election (Tartan Releasing) – 2 locations – $4,792 PTA
• The Valet (Sony Classics) – 28 locations – $3,967 PTA
• Zoo (Thinkfilm) – 2 locations – $3,555 PTA
• Buddy (Independent) – 3 locations - $3,247 PTA

FRIDAY NIGHT: Captain Jack Sparrow is no longer the all-time opening weekend box office champion. Sony’s Spider-Man 3 will top last summer’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest by a surprisingly comfortable margin. The third chapter of Sam Raimi’s superhero franchise is kicking off the weekend with an estimated $58 Friday, which should translate to a staggering $147 million weekend. After breaking opening day box office records across the planet this week - from Italy to Egypt to Japan – it seemed almost certain that Spidey would break this record.

In our FantasyMoguls.com Scorecard, which tracks box office predictions of so-called “experts,” 5 of 9 prognosticators including Brandon Gray from Box Office Mojo, Gitesh Pandya from Box Office Guru, Joshua Rich from Entertainment Weekly and yours truly from Fantasy Moguls all had Spider-Man 3 hitting a record-breaking weekend number.

The only thing that seemed to dampen hopes was a lukewarm reaction from critics. As far as reviews go, SM3 is running at 69% positive (or Fresh) at RottenTomatoes.com, and when you break out the best critics, the “Cream of the Crop”, the review score drops to 53%. Here’s how that compares to the first 2 Spidey chapters. RottenTomatoes.com:

• Spider-Man - 90% Fresh (“Cream of the Crop” – 84%)
• Spider-Man 2 - 93% Fresh (“Cream of the Crop” – 95%)
• Spider-Man 3 - 69% Fresh (“Cream of the Crop” – 53%)

MetaCritic.com is another clearinghouse for reviews, but they have a different methodology. They assign each review a number from 1-100 and create an average. Here is how the Spider-Man reviews stack up there. MetaCritic.com:

• Spider-Man – 73
• Spider-Man 2 – 83
• Spider-Man 3 – 59

The reviews haven’t mattered a lick. The running time of 2 hours 20 minutes hasn’t hurt either (mitigated by the record 10,500+ screens showing SM3, a fact I first reported on Tuesday).

On Monday morning, the official list of the all-time top 10 opening weekend box office openings will look like this.

• 1. 05/04/07 – Spider-Man 3 - $147 million
• 2. 07/07/06 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest - $135.6 million
• 3. 05/03/02 – Spider-Man - $114.8 million
• 4. 05/19/05 – Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith - $108.4 million
• 5. 05/19/04 – Shrek 2 - $108 million
• 6. 05/26/06 – X-Men: The Last Stand - $102.7 million
• 7. 11/18/05 – Harry Potter & the Goblet of Fire - $102.6 million
• 8. 06/04/04 – Harry Potter & the Prisoner of Azkaban - $93.7 million
• 9. 05/15/03 – The Matrix Reloaded - $91.7 million
• 10. 11/16/01 – Harry Potter & the Sorcerer’s Stone - $90.3 million

The big question for Hollywood is, “How many more of this summer’s blockbusters will crack this top 10?” Shrek the Third (Paramount/Dreamworks), Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (Buena Vista) and Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros) are the leading contenders and maybe even Transformers (Paramount/Dreamworks) can reach this elite class.

The only other new wide release was the long-delayed Lucky You (Warner Bros) from writer/director Curtis Hanson (L.A. Confidential, In Her Shoes). This love story with a Vegas poker tournament as a backdrop is now officially a full-scale disaster. Despite the presence of Eric Bana, Drew Barrymore and Robert Duval, $1 million on Friday and $3 million for the weekend is anything but Lucky. I’ll be posting a number of updates this weekend. Come back tomorrow (Saturday) morning for Early Friday and 3-Day PTA estimates.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS.COM EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES

1. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $58 million

2. Disturbia (Paramount) - $2 million

3. The Invisible (Buena Vista) - $1.2 million

4. Fracture (New Line) - $1.1 million

5. Lucky You (Warner Bros) - $1 million

6. Next (Paramount) - $950,000

7. Blades of Glory (Paramount) - $850,000

8. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) - $655,000

9. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) - $635,000

10. Are We Done Yet? (Sony) - $450,000

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES

1. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $147 million [$147 million]

2. Disturbia (Paramount) - $5.75 million [$59.9 million]

3. Fracture (New Line) - $3.65 million [$26.7 million]

4. The Invisible (Buena Vista) - $3.5 million [$12.7 million]

5. Next (Paramount) - $3.1 million [$12.1 million]

6. Lucky You (Warner Bros) - $3 million [$3 million]

7. Blades of Glory (Paramount) - $2.7 million [$112 million]

8. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) - $2.45 million [$91.75 million]

9. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) - $2 million [$16.1 million]

10. Are We Done Yet? (Sony) - $1.2 million [$45.6 million]