THE SCORECARD: The so-called experts leaning toward a record-breaking opening for 'Spider-Man 3'
by Steve Mason
Each week, we round up the weekend box-office predictions of the so-called experts including yours truly. The old show business adage "Nobody knows anything" is in full effect because, even by studying and poring over the tracking, the release plan, the screen counts and the reviews, and even after seeing the films, the moviegoing public is still too fickle and unpredictable for this to be a science rather than an art. Hopefully, this weekly feature will keep me and the rest of the box-office "authorities" humble and be instructive for Fantasy Moguls players.
This week, we have nine forecasts (eight individual experts -- including Brandon Gray from Box Office Mojo, who put a number out for Spider-Man 3 -- and the Box Office Mojo Derby Averages), and five of the SM3 predictions call for a new opening weekend record.
Gitesh Pandya at Box Office Guru, Box Office Report, Brandon Gray, Entertainment Weekly and I are all expecting more than the record number of $135.6 million. Box Office Report has put out the highest Spidey number with a three-day of $145 million. On the low end, Box Office Prophets is calling for $124.5 million. Amazingly, the average of the nine Spider-Man 3 predictions is $135.47 -- $130,000 or so under the all-time opening weekend record set by Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest last summer.
PLEASE NOTE: Predictions are different from projections. Predictions are based on hunches. Projections, like the ones I will go online with tonight (Friday, May 4), are based on actual box office numbers. The numbers that I go online with each Friday night are the earliest Friday and Three-Day projections available anywhere, and, as proven virtually every week, they are generally quite accurate.
Here are the weekend box office predictions of each expert, source followed by the expert prediction averages for the weekend:
Steve Mason, FantasyMoguls.com
1. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) -- $137.5 million
2. Lucky You (Warner Bros.) -- $8.6 million
3. Disturbia (Paramount) -- $5.2 million
4. Fracture (New Line) -- $4.2 million
5. The Invisible (Buena Vista) -- $4 million
6. Blades of Glory (Paramount) -- $3.9 million
7. Next (Paramount) -- $3.6 million
8. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) -- $3.7 million
9. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) -- $3.5 million
10. Are We Done Yet? (Sony) -- $2.1 million
Gitesh Pandya, Box Office Guru
1. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) -- $140 million
2. Lucky You (Warner Bros.) -- $7 million
3. Disturbia (Paramount) -- $5 million
4. The Invisible (Buena Vista) -- $4 million
5. Next (Paramount) -- $3.5 million
Lee's Movie Info
1. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) -- $129.7
million
2. Disturbia (Paramount) -- $5.3 million
3. Fracture (New Line) -- $4.1 million
4. Lucky You (Warner Bros.) -- $3.8 million
5. The Invisible (Buena Vista) - $3.6 million
6. Next (Paramount) - $3.4 million
Box Office Report
1. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) -- $145 million
2. Lucky You (Warner Bros.) -- $8 million
3. Disturbia (Paramount) -- $5 million
4. The Invisible (Buena Vista) -- $4 million
5. Fracture (New Line) -- $3.8 million
6. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) -- $3.5 million
7. Next (Paramount) -- $3.2 million
8. Blades of Glory (Paramount) -- $3 million
9. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) -- $2.8 million
10. Are We Done Yet? (Sony) -- $2 million
10. No Vacancy (Sony) -- $2 million
10. The Condemned (Lionsgate) -- $2 million
Box Office Mojo Derby Averages
1. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) -- $134.8 million
2. Lucky You (Warner Bros.) -- $8.5 million
3. Disturbia (Paramount) -- $6.2 million
4. The Invisible (Buena Vista) -- $4.5 million
4. Fracture (New Line) -- $4.5 million
6. Next (Paramount) -- $4.1 million
7. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) -- $3.8 million
8. Blades of Glory (Paramount) -- $3.8 million
9. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) -- $3.5 million
10. Vacancy (Sony) -- $2.7 million
Brandon Gray, Box Office Mojo
(Made a prediction for Spider-Man 3 only)
1. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) -- $138.2 million
Box Office Prophets
1. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) -- $124.5 million
2. Lucky You (Warner Bros.) -- $9.4 million
3. Disturbia (Paramount) -- $5.3 million
4. The Invisible (Buena Vista) -- $4.4 million
5. Next (Paramount) -- $4.1 million
6. Fracture (New Line) -- $3.9 million
7. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) -- $3.3 million
8. Blades of Glory (Paramount) -- $3.3 million
9. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) -- $2.8 million
10. Vacancy (Sony) -- $2.2 million
Coming Soon Weekend Warrior
1. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) -- $133.6 million
2. Lucky You (Warner Bros.) -- $7 million
3. Disturbia (Paramount) -- $4.8 million
4. Fracture (New Line) -- $3.8 million
5. The Invisible (Buena Vista) -- $3.7 million
6. Next (Paramount) -- $3.4 million
7. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) -- $2.6 million
7. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) -- $2.6 million
9. Blades of Glory (Paramount) -- $2.5 million
10. Vacancy (Sony) -- $1.8 million
Entertainment Weekly
1. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) -- $136 million
2. Lucky You (Warner Bros.) -- $7 million
3. Disturbia (Paramount) -- $6 million
4. Fracture (New Line) -- $5 million
5. Next (Paramount) -- $3 million
BOX-OFFICE EXPERT PREDICTION AVERAGES
1. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) -- $135.5 million
2. Lucky You (Warner Bros.) -- $7.4 million
3. Disturbia (Paramount) -- $5.4 million
4. Fracture (New Line) -- $4.2 million
5. The Invisible (Buena Vista) -- $4 million
6. Next (Paramount) -- $3.5 million
7. Hot Fuzz (Rogue) -- $3.4 million
8. Blades of Glory (Paramount) -- $3.3 million
9. Meet the Robinsons (Buena Vista) -- $3 million
10. Vacancy (Sony) -- $2.2 million
11. Are We Done Yet? (Sony) -- $2.1 million
12. The Condemned (Lionsgate) -- $2 million
You know, Steve, you already come across as an asshole with your constant back-patting and self-congratulations... so why trash the hard work done by other box office analysts by putting experts in quotes like you do?
Some of us have been doing this a HELL of a lot longer than you have without having the crutches of tracking data and early returns that's available to theatre owners like yourself. So why not show some respect to those who actually do the box office thing for a living and have done it for more than six months rather than constantly denigrating our hard work? I never call myself an "expert" and I'm sure Gitesh doesn't either... we're analysts and our columns/predictions are opinions based on facts, nothing more or less. Most weeks we show our work on which we base those opinions as well. Neither of us have ever patted our back when we get something right as much as you do on a weekly basis after posting information that is easily available to any theatre owner in the country.
Posted by: EDouglas | May 05, 2007 at 04:15 AM
If you're this easily offended, E.D., you're in for a long life.
peace,
Chill
Posted by: chill | May 06, 2007 at 09:50 AM