Three more major movies hit America's multiplexes on Friday (June 29). Ratatouille (Buena Vista) and Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) are both certain hits, while Evening (Focus), despite its amazing cast, is a certain miss. The most ominous insider analysis that I was given about Ratatouille this week, is that its tracking is "almost identical to Over the Hedge." It's not that Hedge wasn't a hit, with a $38.4 million opening weekend and $155 million domestic. It's that those numbers would be a disaster by Pixar standards.

I probably don't need to recount the legendary roster of Pixar hits, but here goes.

Toy Story (1995) -- $29.1 million opening, $191.7 million cume
A Bugs Life (1998) -- $290,000 opening, $162.7 million  cume
Toy Story 2 (1999) -- $300,000 opening, $245.8 million cume
Monsters, Inc. (2001) -- $62.5 million opening, $255.8 million cume
Finding Nemo (2003) -- $70.2 million opening, $339.7 million cume
The Incredibles (2004) -- $70.4 million opening, $261.4 million cume
Cars (2006) -- $60.1 million opening, $244 million cume

If Ratatouille does Over the Hedge numbers, there may be Disney execs jumping from the top of Space Mountain. Many of my sources have doubts about Ratatouille. Here are some of the supposed strikes against it, and I admit, some are silly:

• It's another animated movie featuring a mouse. Everything from Steamboat Willie to last year's Flushed Away has a mouse as the lead.
• It's set in France. It's not all that long ago that they began serving "Freedom Fries" in the cafeteria at the U.S. House of Representatives because of France's unwillingness to support the invasion of Iraq. The French just aren't popular in Middle America.
• The title is Ratatouille, a dish that most people have never heard of, let alone tried.
• A mouse wants to be a French chef. Too snobby.
• Pixar is trying to do too much. Four movies in five years is a monstrous undertaking, and the brand is suffering.

That last theory is probably more off-base than the others. The reviews for Ratatouille are spectacular with a 91 percent Fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes and a score of 91 at MetaCritic. This is, by all counts, an excellent movie, and my hunch is that even if it doesn’t open huge, it will be one of the few summer movies to have real legs. But, the question today is, "How will it open?"

To get an idea, I'll compare Ratatouille's tracking to three recent animated films.

Meet the Robinsons -- $25.1 million opening, $96.3 million cume
Monster House -- $22.2 million opening, $73.6 million cume
Flushed Away -- $18.8 million opening, $64.4 million cume

Un-Aided Awareness (A good measure of buzz and anticipation)
Ratatouille -- 11 percent
Flushed Away -- 8 percent
Meet the Robinsons -- 7 percent
Monster House -- 4 percent

Total Aware (How many people know about the movie)
Ratatouille -- 82 percent
Meet the Robinsons -- 75 percent
Monster House -- 71 percent
Flushed Away -- 65 percent

Definite Interest (How many people know about it and are interested in seeing it)
Ratatouille -- 38 percent (Males Under 25, 27 percent; Males 25 Plus, 41 percent; Females Under 25, 43; Females 25 Plus, 41 percent)
Meet the Robinsons -- 29 percent (Males Under 25, 14 percent; Males 25 Plus, 30 percent; Females Under 25, 35 percent; Females 25 Plus, 35 percent)
Flushed Away -- 28 percent (Males Under 25, 18 percent; Males 25 Plus, 28 percent; Females Under 25, 31 percent; Females 25 Plus, 35 percent)
Monster House -- 24 percent (Males Under 25, 17 percent; Males 25 Plus, 21 percent; Females Under 25, 24 percent; Females 25 Plus, 32 percent)

First Choice (This is the movie that they plan to see)
Ratatouille -- 11 percent (Males Under 25, 11 percent; Males 25 Plus, 14 percent; Females Under 25, 13 percent; Females 25 Plus, 8 percent)
Flushed Away -- 9 percent (Males Under 25, 5 percent; Males 25 Plus, 12 percent; Females Under 25, 10 percent; Females 25 Plus, 11 percent)
Meet the Robinsons -- 6 percent (Males Under 25, 4 percent; Males 25 Plus, 6 percent; Females Under 25, 5 percent; Females 25 Plus, 11 percent)
Monster House -- 4 percent (Males Under 25, 0 percent; Males 25 Plus, 5 percent; Females Under 25, 3 percent; Females 25 Plus, 4 percent)

The bottom line is that Ratatouille is easily stronger in industry tracking than Robinsons, Flushed Away and Monster House. Remember that whenever you're dealing with a family film, there is a hidden kiddie audience that doesn't show up in these audience surveys. If Ratatouille has an 11 percent First Choice, we can safely assume that the real number is 22 percent. How does that compare to other summer releases?

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End -- 60 percent
Spider-Man 3 -- 54 percent
Ratatouille -- 22 percent*
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer -- 21 percent
Ocean's Thirteen -- 16 percent
Surf's Up -- 8 percent*
(* Adjusted for hidden kiddie audience)

Based on all of this analysis, there is no way that Ratatouille gets to $70 million like Finding Nemo and The Incredibles, and I say that the chances are slim that the Disney marketing department can get it to $60 million like Monsters, Inc. and last summer's Cars. The high $40 million range seems doable, however, and cracking $50 million would be real accomplishment. I'll go on the line with a $48 million-$51 million opening weekend.

Not much needs to be written about Evening from Focus Features. My sense, for a while now, has been that the film just isn't very good, despite its remarkable cast. Focus didn't show the movie to very many people in advance, which is never a good sign. Now reviews are coming in, and they range from lukewarm to bad. Evening has a rating of only 32 percent Fresh at Rotten Tomatoes and at MetaCritic it has a score of 51. Good reviews can save a movie like this, but they just aren't there.

With a Total Aware of an anemic 27 percent, you've got to wonder if Focus put any marketing juice behind this movie at all. Definite Interest is at just 22 percent and the First Choice number is only 2 percent. Scores like that lead me to predict just $1.5 million-$3.5 million for the three-day weekend.

Sicko (Lionsgate/Weisntein), the Michael Moore documentary about the American healthcare system opened at one location last Friday (June 22), and there were 50 exclusive Saturday night sneak previews. The theatrical engagement at the Loews Lincoln Square Theatres on the Upper West Side in Manhattan delivered a staggering $68,969 (with $23,576 on Friday, $24,839 on Saturday and $20,554 on Sunday). Meanwhile, the 50 sneaks, in 27 major markets where Moore's previous films have performed well, were a huge success. My sources tell me that all 50 sneaks were either sold out or near-capacity, and there were incidents of people scalping tickets.

You might think that, with numbers like these, you can just roll the film out on 1,200 screens and start counting the money. A release plan for Sicko isn't so simple. In the most recent industry tracking, Sicko has Un-Aided Awareness, always a good measure of buzz and anticipation,  of just 1 percent.  In fact, as of early this week, only 47 percent of Americans had even heard of this critically-acclaimed doc. The Awareness among Males 25 Plus is 61 percent. With Females 25 Plus it's 56 percent, but only 33 percent of Males Under 25 and 37 percent of Females Under 25 are aware of this movie. Overall Definite Interest is at just 20 percent (Males Under 25 at 14 percent, Males 25 Plus at 20 percent, Females Under 25 at 21 percent and Females 25 Plus at 24 percent) and only 4 percent of moviegoers surveyed describe Sicko as their First Choice this coming weekend (Males Under 25 at 2 percent, Males 25 Plus at 3 percent, Females Under 25 at 2 percent and Females 25 Plus at 7 percent).

In short, Sicko isn't ready for a wide release. The plan was never to go out wide this coming weekend. At most, Lionsgate and the Weinsteins were going to expand to 600 runs, but they have officially cut back on that number. I reported Monday night that Sicko would be at 350-450 locations starting Friday along with 50 or so more locations in Canada. The final number is 441 U.S. locations (many with multiple screens). These locations have been carefully screened. By choosing locations where Michael Moore films have performed well in the past and which are located either in major cities or in areas with a significant number of people over 50, the movie will generate more buzz. By making prints fairly scarce Sicko gets more positive reviews and another round of national stories about sold-out screenings. By next Monday, industry tracking will improve enough to expand to more markets.

In my estimation, Lionsgate, Bob and Harvey are dead right to handle Sicko in this carefully calibrated way. There is no reason why this seemingly non-partisan movie from an Academy Award winning documentary filmmaker won't deliver $24,000-$27,000 per location this weekend and an estimated $9 million-$12 million. That will be the perfect springboard to take Moore’s healthcare message much wider through the month of July.

PREDICTIONS FOR THE  WEEKEND OF 6/29-7/1
1. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $50 million
2. Live Free or Die Hard (Fox) -- $24.2 million
3. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $13.1 million
4. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $11.25 million
5. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $10.7 million
6. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $9.6 million
7. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $8.25 million
8. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $6.8 million
9. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) - $4.2 million
10. Surf's Up (Sony) -- $4 million
* Evening (Focus) -- $2.1 million