SECOND WEDNESDAY UPDATE (as of 10:30 p.m., Pacific)
In my original column about Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) (see below), I projected a Wednesday number in the $8 million-$10 million range. I now believe that DH4 will finish the day closer to $8 million (maybe even a tick lower). If that number holds up, the film will likely score an estimated five-day take of $34 million-$37 million and a probable three-day haul of $20 million-$23 million. Please note: I have a lower-than-usual degree of confidence in my Wednesday number for Die Hard. I've gotten some conflicting news from my usual sources.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY WEDNESDAY ESTIMATES
1. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $8 million [$8 million cume]
2. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $2.88 million [$41.6 million cume]
3. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $1.69 million [$27.4 million cume]
4. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $1.63 million [$103.6 million cume]
5. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $1.17 million [$113.4 million cume]
6. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $932,000 [$94.7 million cume]
7. Surf's Up (Sony) -- $924,000 [$50.1 million cume]
8. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) -- $782,000 [$289.6 million cume]
9. Nancy Drew (Warner Bros.) -- $711,000 million [$18.3 million cume]
10. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $700,000 [$310.1 million cume]

WEDNESDAY UPDATE
Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) is off to a solid start, but it's not headed for the box office stratosphere. One of my studio sources puts the movie's opening Wednesday at $8 million-$10 million and another says $8 million is the ceiling. If the $8 million-$10 million range holds up, it's fair to expect $35 million-$42 million for five days and $21.5 million-$25 million for the three-day. As recently as yesterday, one of my sources felt that $50 million for five days was possible and others were forecasting a number in the high $40 million, so this is a step down from those lofty predictions.

After the disappointing opening of Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) and the disastrous debut of Evan Almighty (Universal), Hollywood's surefire summer has stalled. Back in May, a fair number of box office analysts were calling for $4 billion in sales, topping the all-time record summer of $3.95 billion in 2004. In Bob Tourtellotte's Tuesday story on Reuters, Brandon Gray from Box Office Mojo that there's says only a "slim chance" of breaking the all-time summer record, but, in my estimation, the odds could go have gone way up with a meteoric performance by an aging John McClane and the newest Die Hard.

With sure things like Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) and Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) on the horizon, it's not too late for Hollywood to get its gravy train back on track ... but it won't happen now without a breakout success for Ratatouille (Buena Vista), which invades America's multiplexes Friday (June 29). Unfortunately, that may be an uphill climb even for mighty Pixar. I'll cover Ratatouille, along with Evening (Focus) and Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein), in my Thursday tracking column.

Maybe, we've all been expecting too much from old man Bruce Willis and the Die Hard franchise. It's been almost two decades since the original franchise-starter, recently named the best action film of all-time by Entertainment Weekly, and seven years since Die Hard: With a Vengeance. The performance of the first three Die Hard films isn't as strong as you might think.

1988 -- Die Hard: $600,000 opening, $83 million cume
1990 -- Die Hard 2: Die Harder: $21.7 million opening, $117.5 million cume
1995 -- Die Hard: With a Vengeance: $22.1 million opening, $100 million cume

In fact, Bruce Willis's all-time top two openings are as a voice in Over the Hedge and in Michael Bay's Armageddon, and he didn't "open" those movies -- some cute cartoon animals and a huge asteroid did. This durable star actually only has five openings of $25 million-plus and only five of his films have topped $100 million. Here are his all-time Top 20 openings:

TOP 20 OPENINGS FOR BRUCE WILLIS MOVIES (Not including cameos)
1. Over the Hedge -- $38.4 million opening [$155 million cume]
2. Aramageddon -- $36 million opening [$201.5 million cume]
3. Unbreakable -- $30.3 million opening [$95 million cume]
4. Sin City -- $29.1 million opening [$74.1 million cume]
5. The Sixth Sense -- $26.6 million opening [$293.5 million cume]
6. Die Hard: With a Vengeance -- $22.1 million opening [$100 million cume]
7. Die Hard 2: Die Harder -- $21.7 million opening [$117.5 million cume]
8. Beavis and Butthead Do America -- $20.1 million opening [$63.1 million cume]
9. Tears of the Sun -- $17.05 million opening [$43.7 million cume]
10. The Fifth Element -- $17.03 million opening [$63.8 million cume]
11. The Jackal -- $15.1 million opening [$54.9 million cume]
12. The Siege -- $13.9 million opening [$40.9 million cume]
13. The Whole Nine Yards -- $13.7 million opening [$57.2 million cume]
14. Bandits -- $13 million opening [$41.5 million cume]
15. The Kid -- $12.6 million opening [$69.6 million cume]
16. Death Becomes Her -- $12.11 million opening [$58.4 million cume]
17. Look Who's Talking -- $12.10 million opening [$140 million cume]
18. Rugrats Go Wild -- $11.5 million opening [$39.4 million cume]
19. Perfect Stranger -- $11.2 million opening [$23.7 million cume, still in release]
20. Hostage -- $10.2 million opening [$34.6 million cume]

Live Free or Die Hard, however, is, by all accounts, a very good film. Fox put the first 8 minutes of the movie online, so they know they've got the goods. There's also been a very cool viral video on YouTube. It's a music video by a group called Guyz Nite. Nancy Vialatte from Hollywood Wiretap has an excellent story about how Fox has adopted the video and used the group's song to their movie's advantage.

In searching recent comparable films, I've decided to compare the tracking for Live Free or Die Hard to last summer's Miami Vice ($25.7 million opening, $63.4 million cume) and December's Déjà Vu ($20.5 million opening, $64 million cume).

As far as buzz goes, Live Free or Die Hard holds a substantial advantage over both Michael Mann's action flick and the Denzel Washington vehicle. Un-Aided Awareness for Die Hard is an impressive 12 percent compared to 6 percent for Déjà Vu and 4 percent for Vice. Die Hard also scores slightly better in Total Awareness with 89 percent (Males Under 25, 89 percent; Males 25 Plus, 93 percent; Females Under 25, 83 percent; and Females 25 Plus, 89 percent) while the number was just 85 percent for Vice and 82 percent for Déjà Vu.

It's when we get to Definite Interest and First Choice that Live Free or Die Hard has been struggling. Die Hard has just 40 percent Definite Interest (Males Under 25, 51 percent; Males 25 Plus, 42 percent; Females Under 25, 32 percent; and Females 25 Plus, 34 percent). Déjà Vu had stronger Definite Interest at 42 percent, but DH4 is well ahead of Miami Vice, which had just 32 percent. With a 16 percent First Choice (Males Under 25, 24 percent; Males 25 Plus, 19 percent; Females Under 25, 8 percent; and Females 25 Plus, 14 percent), Die Hard is marginally better than Déjà Vu's 15 percent and the 13 percent First Choice registered by Vice, but it's not dramatically better.

It now appears that Live Free or Die Hard will not be able to outperform its good-but-not-great tracking. The picture has buzz and the reviews are overwhelmingly positive (77 percent Fresh at Rotten Tomatoes and a score of 71 at MetaCritic.com). Also in its favor is its PG-13 rating. Kids are out of school and Males Under 25 are the strongest demo in tracking (Definite Interest, 51 percent; and First Choice, 19 percent). The bottom line is that John McClane is still alive and kicking, and performing respectably, but getting this movie to $50 million by Monday would be a bigger feat than any of the heroic stunts in any of the Die Hard movies.