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Advice & Analysis: Weekly Tracking

Advice & Analysis: Reviews

June 18, 2007

FINAL WEEKEND ESTIMATES: 'Surfer' with a franchise-best $57.4M; 'Ocean's' dips below $20M; 'Knocked Up' down only 26 percent; 'Nancy Drew' flops

by Steve Mason

SUNDAY MORNING: Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) has done what Hollywood's last two sequels couldn't do. After Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) and Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) opened below previous films in their franchises, Rise of the Silver Surfer has topped its 2005 predecessor.

After a $22.8 million Friday, Rise of the Silver Surfer added an estimated $20 million on Saturday and is expected to pick up another $14.8 million today for a blazing three-day opening of $57.4 million. Just when it looked like moviegoers were revolting against sequel-happy Hollywood, along comes a mid-June box-office booster shot.

Director Tim Story and Fox execs should be credited here. They were competing against both the first film's big business ($56 million opening, $154.6 million domestic cume) and its damning critical consensus (26 percent Fresh at RottenTomatoes.com and a score of 40 from MetaCritic.com). Many fans of the comic book series believe, rightly I'd say, that the film didn't "respect" the Marvel characters.

In delivering this sequel, then, Fox honchos and Story knew that it wouldn't be enough to just bring back the foursome. They added the Silver Surfer, and they made his name part of the title. FF2 is by no means a critical darling, but the reviews are slightly better (38 percent Fresh at RottenTomatoes.com and a score of 47 from MetaCritic.com). Fox's only serious mistake was reaching all the way from the Left Coast to Memphis, Tenn., to force the firing of Malco Theatres projectionist Jesse Morrison because he wrote an unauthorized early review of the movie. The studio has accidentally turned Morrison into a cause celebre, and brought unbelievable attention to his negative review originally posted under the name of Memflix on Ain't It Cool News.

When actuals are released Monday, FF2 will likely have scored the all-time eighth-best opening for a comic book movie adaptation:

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENINGS FOR COMIC BOOK MOVIE ADAPTATIONS
1. Spider-Man 3 -- $151.1M
2. Spider-Man -- $114.8M
3. X-Men: The Last Stand -- $102.7M
4. Spider-Man 2 -- $88.1M
5. X2: X-Men United -- $85.5M
6. 300 -- $70.8 million
7. Hulk -- $62.1 million
8. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer -- $57.4 million
9. Fantastic Four -- $56 million
10. X-Men -- $54.4 million

Also, Rise of the Silver Surfer will be approximately the all-time 14th-best opening for a first sequel (no second, third, etc. sequels on this list):

ALL-TIME TOP 15 OPENINGS FOR A FIRST SEQUEL
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest -- $135.6 million
2. Shrek 2 -- $108 million
3. The Matrix Reloaded -- $91.7 million
4. Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets -- $88.3 million
5. Spider-Man 2 -- $88.1 million
6. X2: X-Men United -- $85.5 million
7. The Lost World: Jurassic Park -- $72.1 million
8. The Mummy Returns -- $68.1 million
9. Ice Age: The Meltdown -- $68 million
10. Rush Hour 2 -- $67.4 million
11. The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers -- $62 million
12. Hannibal -- $58 million
13. Mission Impossible II -- $57.8 million
14. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer -- $57.4 million
15. Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me -- $54.9 million

Holding on at No. 2 is Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.), which tumbled to $19.1 million and a new cume of almost $70 million. The third outing for Clooney and friends fell 47 percent from opening weekend, and my sources tell me that it is unlikely to get much above $100 million, compared to the $183.4 million cume for Eleven and the $125.5 million cume for Twelve.

Word-of-mouth smash hit Knocked Up (Universal) has added an impressive $14.5 million, only a 26 percent drop. That's an excellent hold, and it puts the movie just over $90 million since opening. Also holding up well was Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) which picked up an estimated $12 million (doubtless helped by 800-plus Ratatouille sneak previews) push its domestic cume to $273 million.

Nancy Drew (Warner Bros.), starring Eric Roberts's daughter (and Julia Roberts's niece) Emma, finished fifth on Friday with $3 million, but it fell on Saturday, and finishes the weekend with an awful $7.1 million. Both Surf's Up (Sony) and Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) received weekend surges in kiddie business giving Sony's surfing penguin movie $9.3 million (a 47 percent drop) and the Dreamworks/Paramount holdover $9 million.

My Exclusive FantasyMoguls.com Early Saturday Estimates were spot-on again this week. Here are Box Office Mojo's Saturday Estimates (released Sunday morning) followed by my Saturday Estimates (released Saturday night) and the percentage that I missed by:

BOX OFFICE MOJO SATURDAY ESTIMATES (Released Sunday morning)
1. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $20 million [$42.6 million cume]
Fantasy Moguls Saturday estimate (released Saturday night): $20.9 million, missed by 4 percent
2. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $7.8 million [$64.7 million cume]
Fantasy Moguls Saturday estimate (released Saturday night): $7.6 million, missed by 2 percent
3. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $5.64 million [$86 million cume]
Fantasy Moguls Saturday estimate (released Saturday night): $5.68 million, missed by less than 1 percent
4. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) -- $5.175 million [$270.1 million cume]
Fantasy Moguls Saturday estimate (released Saturday night): $5.3 million, missed by 2 percent
5. Surf's Up (Sony) -- $3.5 million [$31.7 million cume]
Fantasy Moguls Saturday estimate (released Saturday night): $3.53 million, missed by less than 1 percent
6. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $3.42 million [$294.3 million cume]
Fantasy Moguls Saturday estimate (released Saturday night): $3.5 million, missed by 2 percent
7. Nancy Drew (Warner Bros.) -- $2.5 million [$5.3 million cume]
Fantasy Moguls Saturday estimate (released Saturday night): $2.5 million, dead on
8. Hostel II (Lionsgate) -- $1.18 million [$13.3 million cume]
Fantasy Moguls Saturday estimate (released Saturday night): $1.14 million, missed by 3 percent
9. Mr. Brooks (MGM) -- $1.215 million [$22.6 million cume]
Fantasy Moguls Saturday estimate (released Saturday night): $1.3 million, missed by 6 percent
10. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) -- $1 million [$329.2 million cume]
Fantasy Moguls Saturday estimate (released Saturday night): $1 million, dead on

Once again this week, my Exclusive FantasyMoguls.com Early 3-Day Estimates, released Friday night, were very accurate. I was within 10 percent on nine of the Top 10, missing Spider-Man 3 (Sony) by 11 percent. Here are the Weekend Studio Estimates (released Sunday morning) followed by my 3-Day Estimates released Friday night and the percentage that I missed by:

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES (Released Sunday morning)
1. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $57.4 million [$57.4 million cume]
Fantasy Moguls 3-Day Estimate released Friday night: $53 million, missed by 8 percent
2. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $19.1 million [$69.8 million cume]
Fantasy Moguls 3-Day Estimate released Friday night: $19 million, missed by less than 1 percent
3. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $14.5 million [$90.5 million cume]
Fantasy Moguls 3-Day Estimate released Friday night: $13.5 million, missed by 7 percent
4. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) -- $12 million [$273.7 million cume]
Fantasy Moguls 3-Day Estimate released Friday night: $12 million, dead on
5. Surf’s Up (Sony) -- $9.3 million [$34.6 million cume]
Fantasy Moguls 3-Day Estimate released Friday night: $10.3 million, missed by 10 percent
6. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $9 million [$297.2 million cume]
Fantasy Moguls 3-Day Estimate released Friday night: $9.2 million, missed by 2 percent
7. Nancy Drew (Warner Bros.) -- $7.13 million [$7.13 million cume]
Fantasy Moguls 3-Day Estimate released Friday night: $8 million, missed by 11 percent
8. Hostel II (Lionsgate) -- $3 million [$14.1 million cume]
Fantasy Moguls 3-Day Estimate released Friday night: $2.75 million, missed by 8 percent
9. Mr. Brooks (MGM) -- $2.8 million [$23.4 million cume]
Fantasy Moguls 3-Day Estimate released Friday night: $2.82 million, missed by less than 1 percent
10. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) -- $2.5 million [$330 million cume]
Fantasy Moguls 3-Day Estimate released Friday night: $2.23 million, missed by 11 percent

FF2 will also easily win the weekend PTA race, with an estimated $14,498 per location, but the real story here is La Vie En Rose (Picturehouse), with a very strong expansion to 78 screens. The critically-acclaimed biopic, from director Olivier Dahan and starring Marion Cotillard as Edith Piaf, should finish the weekend with a PTA of approximately $8,576. Tartan's Romanian comedy 12:08 East of Bucharest should finish third, followed by Kiwi nerd comedy Eagle vs. Shark (Miramax) and Paano Kita Iibigin from ABS-CBN.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- 3,959 locations, $14,498 PTA
2. La Vie En Rose (Picturehouse) -- 78 locations, $8,576 PTA
3. 12:08 East of Bucharest (Tartan) -- 1 location, $8,175 PTA
4. Eagle vs. Shark (Miramax) -- 3 locations, $7,000 PTA
5. Paano Kita Iibigin (ABS-CBN) -- 3 locations, $6,380 PTA
6. Gypsy Caravan (Shadow Distribution) -- 2 locations, $6,223 PTA
7. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- 3,565 locations, $5,359 PTA
8. Knocked Up (Universal) -- 2,907 locations, $4,987 PTA
9. Once (Fox Searchlight) -- 120 locations, $4,483 PTA
10. Fido (Roadside Attractions) -- 2 locations, $4,125 PTA

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Posted at 06:42 AM in Advice and Analysis, Live Weekend Estimates, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent, Weekly Tracking | Permalink

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