THE SCORECARD: Average of 10 "Expert" Sources calls for $53.9M for 'Ratatouille,' $31.6M for 'Die Hard' and $7.7M for 'Sicko'
by Steve Mason
Each week, we round up the weekend box-office predictions of the so-called experts, including yours truly. The old show business adage "Nobody knows anything" is in full effect because, even by studying and poring over the tracking, the release plan, the screen counts and the reviews, and even after seeing the films, the moviegoing public is still too fickle and unpredictable for this to be a science rather than an art.
Hopefully, this weekly feature will keep me, and the rest of the box office "authorities," humble and be instructive for Fantasy Moguls players. Please note: Predictions are different from projections. Predictions are based on hunches. Projections, like the ones I will go online with tonight (Friday, June 29), are based on actual box office numbers. The numbers that I go online with tonight are the earliest Friday and weekend projections available anywhere, and they are generally quite accurate.
This week, we're posting the predictions of seven "expert" sources plus the Box Office Mojo Derby Averages. No predictions this week from Lee's Movie Info or Brandon Gray from Box Office Mojo, and, as of noon, Box Office Psychics haven't put any predictions online. Everyone agrees that Ratatouille (Buena Vista) will easily win the weekend, but the range is pretty wide. At the high end, Edward Douglas from ComingSoon.net calls for $62.7 million and Gitesh Pandya from Box Office Guru says $57 million. On the low end, Nicole Sperling from Entertainment Weekly offers a very pessimistic $42 million and I'm predicting $50 million on the nose. The average of the seven sources puts Pixar's little French rat at just a tick under $54M million.
Meanwhile, the "expert" average for Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) is $31.6 million, but my call of $24.2 million is dragging the average down. I have the high prediction for Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) at $11.25 million and Box Office Prophets is the only other source that puts Michael Moore's healthcare doc above $10 million. There's wide agreement that Evening (Focus) will tank despite its all-star cast.
Here are the weekend box office predictions of each "expert" source followed by the "expert" prediction averages for the weekend:
Steve Mason, FantasyMoguls.com
1. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $50 million
2. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $24.2 million
3. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $13.1 million
4. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $11.25 million
5. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $10.7 million
6. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $9.6 million
7. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $8.25 million
8. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros) -- $6.8 million
9. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) -- $4.2 million
10. Surf's Up (Sony) -- $4 million
* Evening (Focus) -- $2.1 million
Gitesh Pandya, Box Office Guru
1. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $57 million
2. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $31 million
3. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $15 million
4. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $9.5 million
5. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $9 million
* Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $7 million
* Evening (Focus) -- $3 million
Box Office Report
1. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $56 million
2. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $32 million
3. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $15 million
4. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $11 million
5. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $9.5 million
6. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $7 million
7. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $6.5 million
8. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $6 million
9. Evening (Focus) -- $4 million
10. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) -- $3.7 million
Box Office Mojo Derby Averages
1. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $55.2 million
2. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $36.7 million
3. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $15.9 million
4. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $11.9 million
5. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $10.1 million
6. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $7.7 million
7. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $7.4 million
8. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $6.7 million
9. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) -- $4.3 million
10. Evening (Focus) -- $3.5 million
World of KJ
1. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $53 million
2. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $26.2 million
3. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $14.7 million
4. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $10 million
5. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $8.4 million
6. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $7.8 million
7. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $6.4 million
8. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $5.8 million
9. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) -- $4.1 million
10. Surf's Up (Sony) -- $3.8 million
* Evening (Focus) -- $2.3 million
David Mumpower & Kim Hollis, Box Office Prophets
1. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $56 million
2. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $34.1 million
3. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $16.2 million
4. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $10.8 million
5. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $13.4 million
6. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $9.6 million
7. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $8.1 million
8. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $7 million
9. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) -- $4.5 million
10. Surf's Up (Sony) -- $4 million
* Evening (Focus) -- $3.6 million
Edward Douglas, Coming Soon Weekend Warrior
1. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $62.7 million
2. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $34.3 million
3. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $15.2 million
4. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $11.3 million
5. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $9.2 million
6. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $7.1 million
7. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $6 million
8. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $5.7 million
9. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) -- $3.5 million
10. Surf's Up (Sony) -- $3.3 million
* Evening (Focus) -- $2.9 million
Nicole Sperling, Entertainment Weekly
1. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $42 million
2. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $35 million
3. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $15 million
4. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $10 million
4. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $10 million
* Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $7 million
* Evening (Focus) -- $5 million
BOX OFFICE "EXPERT" PREDICTION AVERAGES
1. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $53.9 million
2. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $31.6 million
3. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $15 million
4. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $10.9 million
5. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20 Century Fox) -- $9.4 million
6. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $7.7 million
7. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $7.6 million
8. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $6.5 million
9. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) -- $4 million
10. Surf's Up (Sony) -- $3.7 million
* Evening (Focus) -- $3.3 million


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