If the $72.5 million number holds, it will be the 22nd-best opening weekend in modern box-office history, and the all-time third-best opening weekend for an animated film, trailing only Shrek the Third ($121.6 million) and Shrek 2 ($108 million). Not only does this monstrous start guarantee a movie sequel, but it will almost certainly reinvigorate the television series on Fox, which finished the 2006-2007 season as only the No. 60 primetime show of 142 programs.

I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) grabbed another $7 million Saturday, and the Adam Sandler comedy is headed for an estimated $18 million weekend. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) collected an estimated $6.92 million Saturday, and, with a 20 percent or so Sunday drop, its three-day will be approximately $17.4 million. That will put HP5 at $242.1 million domestic. New Line's Broadway adaptation of Hairspray is holding very strongly with a $6 million Saturday and a $15.7 million weekend. Meanwhile, Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) and No Reservations (Warner Bros.) are neck-and-neck for No. 5 on Saturday and for the weekend. It looks like the Michael Bay-by-way-of-Hasbro action flick wins Saturday by a few hundred thousand. For the weekend, however, the Catherine Zeta-Jones romantic comedy will likely prevail for a Top 5 finish.

The Lindsay Lohan thriller I Know Who Killed Me (Sony) dropped by just over 10 percent to an estimated $1.13 million Saturday, and its three-day will be no better than $3.1 million (ninth place for the weekend). The MGM/Weinstein comedy Who's Your Caddy? is No. 10 with $1.12 million on Saturday and about $2.7 million for the weekend.

Rescue Dawn (MGM), from director Werner Herzog, delivered another $558,000 on Saturday, and its anticipated $1.4 million weekend will put it just outside the Top 10. Danny Boyle's Sunshine (Fox Searchlight) had a slightly less successful expansion with just over $450,000 on 450 screens on Saturday, which should translate to a $1.2 million weekend.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) -- $24.15 million [$53.2 million cume]
2. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) -- $7 million [$65.7 million cume]
3. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $6.92 million [$236.5 million cume]
4. Hairspray (New Line) -- $6 million [$54.9 million cume]
5. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $4.49 million [$289.7 million cume]
6. No Reservations (Warner Bros) -- $4.46 million [$8.4 million cume]
7. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $2.98 million [$177.6 million cume]
8. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $2.25 million [$123.5 million cume]
9. I Know Who Killed Me (Sony) -- $1.13 million [$2.4 million cume]
10. Who's Your Caddy? (MGM/Weinstein) -- $1.12 million [$2 million cume]
11. Rescue Dawn (MGM) -- $558,000 [$2.2 million cume]
12. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $492,000 [$144.7 million cume]
13. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $484,000 [$41.3 million cume]
14. Sunshine (Fox Searchlight) -- $452,000 [$1.2 million cume]
15. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $449,000 [$95.9 million cume]
16. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $429,000 [$20.9 million cume]
17. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $426,000 [$69.5 million cume]
18. Talk to Me (Focus) -- $328,000 [$1.6 million cume]
19. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $203,000 [$115.4 million cume]
20. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) -- $149,000 [$306.6 million cume]
21. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $148,000 [$129.4 million cume]
22. La Vie En Rose (Picturehouse) -- $148,000 [$8 million cume]
23. Once (Fox Searchlight) -- $134,000 [$5.9 million cume]
24. Mr. Brooks (MGM) -- $57,000 [$28.2 million cume]
25. Evening (Focus) -- $28,800 [$12.3 million cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) -- $72.5 million [$72.5 million cume]
2. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) -- $18 million [$70.6 million cume]
3. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $17.4 million [$242.1 million cume]
4. Hairspray (New Line) -- $15.7 million [$59.4 million cume]
5. No Reservations (Warner Bros.) -- $11.6 million [$11.6 million cume]
6. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $11.2 million [$284.2 million cume]
7. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $7.4 million [$179.8 million cume]
8. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $5.3 million [$125.1 million cume]
9. I Know Who Killed Me (Sony) -- $3.1 million [$3.1 million cume]
10. Who's Your Caddy? (MGM/Weinstein) -- $2.7 million [$2.7 million cume]
11. Rescue Dawn (MGM) -- $1.4 million [$2.7 million cume]
12. Sunshine (Fox Searchlight) -- $1.2 million [$1.6 million cume]
13. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $1.17 million [$145.1 million cume]
14. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $1.14 million [$41.5 million cume]
15. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $1.1 million [$96.2 million cume]
16. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $1.03 million [$21.2 million cume]
17. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $962,000 [$69.7 million cume]
18. Talk to Me (Focus) -- $797,000 [$1.8 million cume]
19. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $477,000 [$115.5 million cume]
20. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $360,000 [$129.6 million cume]
21. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) -- $352,000 [$306.7 million cume]
22. La Vie En Rose (Picturehouse) -- $347,000 [$8.1 million cume]
23. Once (Fox Searchlight) -- $305,000 [$6 million cume]
24. Mr. Brooks (MGM) -- $136,000 [$28.3 million cume]
25. Evening (Focus) -- $105,000 [$12.3 million cume]

SATURDAY MORNING: Friday morning, I published my Final Weekend Tracking column calling for a $20 million-plus Friday and a $60 million-plus opening weekend for The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox).  Late Friday, I went online with $28 million for opening day and $67 million for the three-day. After some conversations this morning, I expect the Studio Estimate to be $29 million.

There are three major tracking services, and, on Fridays, they release their final predictions/projections for the weekend. By early Friday afternoon, you could almost hear the expert analysts at NRG, MarketCast and OTX yelping a Homer-esque "D'oh!" NRG and MarketCast both went with a $40 million weekend number and OTX released an even softer $38 million. My call of $20 million-plus and $60 million-plus was solid, but, as late as Wednesday, my thinking was $45 million-$50 million. How could everyone have been so wrong?

For weeks, I've been very complimentary of the Fox marketing people for pulling out every stop to promote The Simpsons Movie. A few weeks ago, I was on the Reelz Channel, and I said that the movie was at a disadvantage because Homer Simpson cannot appear on Leno. What do you know? Fox made that happen, plus the "Vote for the Best Springfield" Contest and the Kwik-E-Mart promotions were absolutely inspired.

Perhaps one of the reasons that The Simpsons Movie was underestimated is that the television series, after 19 seasons and 400 episodes, has gotten pretty creaky. After averaging 13.4 million viewers per episode back in Season 1, the TV series on Fox declined to an average of 9.2 million viewers per episode in its 2004-2005 season. That made it the 50th-best rated TV program out of 156 total shows. In the just completed 2006-2007 television season, The Simpsons finished No. 60 according to Nielsen (out of 142 shows). That's an average of just 8.6 million viewers per episode. Although the long-running show remains a staple on Fox, it seemed well past its prime. Amazingly, the success of the movie will almost certainly invigorate the series, and the smart money is on a huge ratings improvement in the coming TV season.

The sizzling opening day is especially impressive in a historical context. The Simpsons Movie is the all-time 16th-best opening day in modern box office history.

ALL-TIME TOP 20 OPENING DAYS
1. Spider-Man 3: $59.8 million
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest: $55.8 million
3. Star Wars: Episode II – Revenge of the Sith: $50 million
4. X- Men: The Last Stand: $45.1 million
5. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix: $44.2 million
6. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End: $42.9 million
7. Spider-Man 2: $40.4 million
8. Shrek the Third: $38.4 million
9. Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban: $38.2 million
10. The Matrix Reloaded: $37.5 million
11. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King: $34.4 million
12. Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone: $32.3 million
13. X2: X-Men United: $31.2 million
14. Star Wars: Episode II – Attack of the Clones: $30.1 million
15. Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets: $29.6 million
16. The Simpsons Movie: $29 million
17. The Da Vinci Code: $28.6 million
18. Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace: $28.5 million
19. 300: $28.1 million
20. Transformers: $27.8 million

It's also the No. 2 all-time opening day for an animated movie trailing only Shrek the Third:

ALL-TIME TOP 5 ANIMATED OPENING DAYS
1. Shrek the Third: $38.4 million
2. The Simpsons Movie: $29 million
3. Ice Age: The Meltdown: $21.7 million
4. The Incredibles: $20.5 million
5. Finding Nemo: $20.2 million

And it is the all-time No. 1 opening day for any television property making a jump to the big screen:

ALL-TIME TOP 5 OPENING DAYS FOR A  TV ADAPTATION
1. The Simpsons Movie: $29 million
2. Scooby-Doo: $19.2 million
3. Mission: Impossible III: $16.6 million
4. Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle: $14.6 million
5. Charlie's Angels: $13.6 million

There is no doubt that this movie is frontloaded, but how frontloaded? I've been working the phones this morning, and the guesses range from a 10 percent drop to a 30 percent drop. A 10 percent Saturday drop would put the opening weekend over $70 million and possibly as high as $75 million. A 30 percent Day 2 drop would likely mean $65 percent-$67 percent. I'll be tracking the movie all day and night, and I should have the drop nailed by 10 p.m. Pacific. For now, I'm raising my three-day target to $70 percent.

Everything else from last night stands. Among the highlights:

• Rescue Dawn (MGM) has held up extraordinarily well in its expansion to 500 screens. The Werner Herzog Vietnam War yarn grabbed an estimated $423,000 on Friday, and it should finish the weekend in the $1.5 million range.

• Danny Boyle's metaphysical sci-fi flick Sunshine (Fox Searchlight) was a little soft with $377,000 at 460 locations. That should translate to $1.2& million for the weekend.

• La Vie En Rose (Picturehouse), featuring a remarkable performance Marion Cotillard should add another $328,000 over the weekend, nudging Olivier Dahan's Edith Piaf biopic past the $8 million mark.

• With an estimated $300,000 Fri-Sun, the critically-acclaimed Fox Searchlight title Once hits $6 million domestic.

• Arctic Tale is a colossal disappointment for Paramount Vantage. On just 4 screens, the March of the Penguins-wannabe delivered a dismal per screen of $1,242 and a $4,966 total. After opening on Wednesday, its three-day cume is a meager $11,300.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) -- $29 million [$29 million cume]
2. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) -- $6 million [$58.5 million cume]
3. Hairspray (New Line) -- $5.2 million [$48.9 million cume]
4. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $5 million [$229.7 million cume]
5. No Reservations (Warner Bros.) -- $4 million [$4 million cume]
6. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $3.2 million [$276.2 million cume]
7. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $2.25 million [$174.7 million cume]
8. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $1.4 million [$121.1 million cume]
9. I Know Who Killed Me (Sony) -- $1.2 million [$1.2 million cume]
10. Who's Your Caddy? (MGM/Weinstein) -- $900,000 [$900,000 cume]
11. Rescue Dawn (MGM) -- $423,000 [$1.7 million cume]
12. Sunshine (Fox Searchlight) -- $377,500 [$740,000 cume]
13. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $360,000 [$40.7 million cume]
14. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $350,000 [$144.3 million cume]
15. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $340,000 [$95.5 million cume]
16. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $312,000 [$69.1 million cume]
17. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $270,000 [$20.5 million cume]
18. Talk to Me (Focus) -- $213,000 [$1.3 million cume]
19. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $142,000 [$115.2 million cume]
20. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $106,000 [$129.3 million cume]
21. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) -- $101,000 [$306.5 million cume]
22. La Vie En Rose (Picturehouse) -- $86,500 [$7.9 million cume]
23. Once (Fox Searchlight) -- $81,500 [$5.8 million cume]
24. Mr. Brooks (MGM) -- $41,500 [$28.2 million cume]
25. Evening (Focus) -- $28,800 [$12.3 million cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) -- $70 million [$70 million cume]
2. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) -- $18.2 million [$70.7 million cume]
3. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $16.7 million [$241.4 million cume]
4. Hairspray (New Line) -- $15.8 million [$59.5 million cume]
5. No Reservations (Warner Bros.) -- $11.5 million [$11.5 million cume]
6. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $11.3 million [$284.3 million cume]
7. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $6.9 million [$179.3 million cume]
8. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $4.5 million [$124.2 million cume]
9. I Know Who Killed Me (Sony) -- $3.25 million [$3.25 million cume]
10. Who's Your Caddy? (MGM/Weinstein) -- $2.6 million [$2.6 million cume]
11. Rescue Dawn (MGM) -- $1.5 million [$2.8 million cume]
12. Sunshine (Fox Searchlight) -- $1.2 million [$1.6 million cume]
13. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $1.1 million [$41.5 million cume]
14. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $1.09 million [$145 million cume]
15. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $995,000 [$96.1 million cume]
16. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $970,000 [$69.7 million cume]
17. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $934,000 [$21.2 million cume]
18. Talk to Me (Focus) -- $786,000 [$1.8 million cume]
19. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $435,000 [$115.5 million cume]
20. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $361,000 [$129.6 million cume]
21. La Vie En Rose (Picturehouse) -- $328,000 [$8.1 million cume]
22. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) -- $307,000 [$306.8 million cume]
23. Once (Fox Searchlight) -- $297,000 [$6 million cume]
24. Mr. Brooks (MGM) -- $137,000 [$28.3 million cume]
25. Evening (Focus) -- $95,000 [$12.3 million cume]

FRIDAY NIGHT: After 19 seasons and 400 episodes, The Simpsons are performing "Okily-dokily" on the big screen. Actually, the famous Ned Flanders expression understates the success of 20th Century Fox's The Simpsons Movie. Homer, Marge, Bart, Lisa and Maggie have far exceeded all expectations in their first big screen adventure with a monstrous $28 million Friday, which will likely translate to at least $67 million over its opening three-day frame. Depending on how frontloaded the picture is, $70 million is not out of the question. Amazingly, all three major tracking services missed big on this one. As I reported earlier today, NRG's final number for the big screen adaptation was $40 million, MarketCast called for the same $40 million and OTX forecasted only $38 million. By the time I published my Final Weekend Tracking column, it was clear that the picture would be huge (I called for $20 million-plus on Friday, and at least $60 million for the weekend).

I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry million (Universal) scored $6 million to start its second weekend, which will likely put it at an estimated $18.2 million for the weekend, lifting the Adam Sandler comedy past $70 by Monday morning. Hairspray (New Line) was third on Friday with $5.2 million, but it will finish fourth for the weekend with a still-solid $15.8 million. The Broadway adaptation will have banked just shy of $60 million at the end of its second weekend. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) was fourth on Friday with $5 million, but big Saturday and Sunday family business will push it to $16.7 million for the three-day and a new cume of an estimated $241.4 million. The new Catherine Zeta-Jones romantic comedy No Reservations (Warner Bros) had a decent debut with $4 million on Friday, and it will finish with approximately $11.5 million for the weekend.

The two other new releases, Lindsay Lohan's I Know Who Killed Me (Sony) and Who's Your Caddy? (MGM/Weinstein), finished ninth and 10th respectively. The Lohan thriller grabbed a mere $1.2 million on Friday, which should translate to only $3.25 million. Meanwhile, urban comedy Caddy only mustered $900,000 to start the weekend, and its three-day will top out at an estimated $2.6 million.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) -- $28 million [$28 million cume]
2. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) -- $6 million [$58.5 million cume]
3. Hairspray (New Line) -- $5.2 million [$48.9 million cume]
4. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $5 million [$229.7 million cume]
5. No Reservations (Warner Bros.) -- $4 million [$4 million cume]
6. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $3.2 million [$276.2 million cume]
7. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $2.25 million [$174.7 million cume]
8. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $1.4 million [$121.1 million cume]
9. I Know Who Killed Me (Sony) -- $1.2 million [$1.2 million cume]
10. Who's Your Caddy? (MGM/Weinstein) -- $900,000 [$900,000 cume]
11. Rescue Dawn (MGM) -- $423,000 [$1.7 million cume]
12. Sunshine (Fox Searchlight) -- $377,500 [$740,000 cume]
13. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $360,000 [$40.7 million cume]
14. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $350,000 [$144.3 million cume]
15. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $340,000 [$95.5 million cume]
16. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $312,000 [$69.1 million cume]
17. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $270,000 [$20.5 million cume]
18. Talk to Me (Focus) -- $213,000 [$1.3 million cume]
19. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $142,000 [$115.2 million cume]
20. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $106,000 [$129.3 million cume]
21. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) -- $101,000 [$306.5 million cume]
22. La Vie En Rose (Picturehouse) -- $86,500 [$7.9 million cume]
23. Once (Fox Searchlight) -- $81,500 [$5.8 million cume]
24. Mr. Brooks (MGM) -- $41,500 [$28.2 million cume]
25. Evening (Focus) -- $28,800 [$12.3 million cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) -- $67 million [$67 million cume]
2. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) -- $18.2 million [$70.7 million cume]
3. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $16.7 million [$241.4 million cume]
4. Hairspray (New Line) -- $15.8 million [$59.5 million cume]
5. No Reservations (Warner Bros.) -- $11.5 million [$11.5 million cume]
6. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $11.3 million [$284.3 million cume]
7. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $6.9 million [$179.3 million cume]
8. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $4.5 million [$124.2 million cume]
9. I Know Who Killed Me (Sony) -- $3.25 million [$3.25 million cume]
10. Who's Your Caddy? (MGM/Weinstein) -- $2.6 million [$2.6 million cume]
11. Rescue Dawn (MGM) -- $1.5 million [$2.8 million cume]
12. Sunshine (Fox Searchlight) -- $1.2 million [$1.6 million cume]
13. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $1.1 million [$41.5 million cume]
14. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $1.09 million [$145 million cume]
15. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $995,000 [$96.1 million cume]
16. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $970,000 [$69.7 million cume]
17. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $934,000 [$21.2 million cume]
18. Talk to Me (Focus) -- $786,000 [$1.8 million cume]
19. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $435,000 [$115.5 million cume]
20. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $361,000 [$129.6 million cume]
21. La Vie En Rose (Picturehouse) -- $328,000 [$8.1 million cume]
22. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) -- $307,000 [$306.8 million cume]
23. Once (Fox Searchlight) -- $297,000 [$6 million cume]
24. Mr. Brooks (MGM) -- $137,000 [$28.3 million cume]
25. Evening (Focus) -- $95,000 [$12.3 million cume]