Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) delivered an estimated $14.95 million on Saturday, as the Autobots and Decepticons charged past the $200 million mark. The Michael Bay-by-way-of-Hasbro action pic  is clearly attracting family business, and I'm revising my three-day from $34 million to a better-than-expected $35.5 million. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) cooked up another $7.2 million and should get to $18 million for the three-day. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) saw a nice Saturday surge for an estimated $4.62 million. Old man John McClane will climb past the $100 million mark sometime on Sunday. Finally License to Wed (Warner Bros.) maintains a spot in the Top 5 with $2.87 million, which will likely translate to a $7 million weekend.

I'm going online with estimates for the Top 38 films tonight. The further down on the list that you go, the estimates get a bit more problematic because of the smaller sample sizes. After the Saturday Estimates are Revised 3-Day Estimates using an approximate Sunday drop.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $28.82 million [$117.6 million cume]
2. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $14.95 million [$212.8 million cume]
3. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $7.2 million [$137.5 million cume]
4. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $4.62 million [$99.8 million cume]
5. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $2.87 million [$28.2 million cume]
6. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $2.05 million [$86.4 million cume]
7. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $1.89 million [$60.6 million cume]
8. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $1.57 million [$137.2 million cume]
9. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $1.1 million [$15 million cume]
10. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $848,000 [$111.9 million cume]
11. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $683,000 [$126.6 million cume]
12. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) -- $632,000 [$304.1 million cume]
13. Captivity (After Dark) -- $489,000 [$1 million cume]
14. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) -- $465,700 [$335.2 million cume]
15. Evening (Focus) -- $450,000 [$10.4 million cume]
16. La Vie En Rose (Picturehouse) -- $238,000 [$6.7 million cume]
17. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $228,000 [$317.7 million cume]
18. You Kill Me (IFC Films) -- $221,000 [$1.3 million cume]
19. Rescue Dawn (MGM) -- $205,000 [$535,000 cume]
20. Talk to Me (Focus) -- $147,300 [$266,000 cume]
21. Once (Fox Searchlight) -- $139,000 [$4.9 million cume]
22. Waitress (Fox Searchlight) -- $107,600 [$17.8 million cume]
23. Surf's Up (Sony) -- $102,000 [$56.7 million cume]
24. Nancy Drew (Warner Bros.) -- $101,000 [$23.9 million cume]
24. Disturbia (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $101,000 [$79.6 million cume]
26. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) -- $86,000 [$167.6 million cume]
26. Lady Chatterley (Kino) -- $86,000 [$252,300 cume]
28. Joshua (Fox Searchlight) -- $85,500 [$215,000 cume]
29. A Mighty Heart (Paramount Vantage) -- $68,170 [$8.7 million cume]
30. Paris Je T'aime (First Look) -- $48,500 [$4.3 million cume]
31. Blades of Glory (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $47,500 [$118.3 million cume]
32. Introducing the Dwights (Warner Independent) -- $41,400 [$116,200 cume]
33. Broken English (Magnolia) -- $39,600 [$336,000 cume]
34. Are We Done Yet? (Sony) -- $35,400 [$49.5 million cume]
35. The Golden Door (Miramax) -- $31,100 [$681,000 cume]
36. My Best Friend (IFC Films) -- $27,500 [$47,000 cume]
37. Interview (Sony Classics) -- $13,000 [$22,000 cume]
38. Shortcut to Happiness (Yari Film Group) -- $9,500 [$16,900 cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $76 million [$137.9 million cume]
2. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $35.5 million [$222.5 million cume]
3. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $18.1 million [$143.1 million cume]
4. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $10.7 million [$102.8 million cume]
5. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $7 million [$30.1 million cume]
6. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $5.1 million [$88 million cume]
7. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $4.9 million [$62.1 million cume]
8. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $3.9 million [$138.4 million cume]
9. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $2.7 million [$15.9 million cume]
10. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $2 million [$112.5 million cume]
11. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $1.6 million [$127.1 million cume]
12. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) -- $1.5 million [$304.5 million cume]
13. Captivity (After Dark) -- $1.3 million [$1.3 million cume]
14. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) -- $1.16 million [$335.6 million cume]
15. Evening (Focus) -- $1.12 million [$10.8 million cume]
16. La Vie En Rose (Picturehouse) -- $559,000 [$6.8 million cume]
17. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $549,000 [$317.9 million cume]
18. You Kill Me (IFC Films) -- $539,000 [$1.4 million cume]
19. Rescue Dawn (MGM) -- $480,450 [$709,300 cume]
20. Talk to Me (Focus) -- $376,600 [$376,600 cume]
21. Once (Fox Searchlight) -- $322,000 [$5 million cume]
22. Surf's Up (Sony) -- $265,000 [$56.8 million cume]
23. Nancy Drew (Warner Bros.) -- $264,500 [$24 million cume]
24. Waitress (Fox Searchlight) -- $254,000 [$17.8 million cume]
25. Disturbia (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $239,000 [$79.6 million cume]
26. Joshua (Fox Searchlight) -- $211,600 [$286,000 cume]
27. Lady Chatterley (Kino) -- $209,200 [$316,900 cume]
28. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) -- $183,600 [$167.7 million cume]
29. A Mighty Heart (Paramount Vantage) -- $155,500 [$8.8 million cume]
30. Blades of Glory (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $116,900 [$118.3 million cume]
31. Paris Je T'aime (First Look) -- $115,400 [$4.3 million cume]
32. Broken English (Magnolia) -- $92,575 [$364,500 cume]
33. Introducing the Dwights (Warner Independent) -- $88,400 [$142,300 cume]
34. Are We Done Yet? (Sony) -- $84,180 [$49.6 million cume]
35. The Golden Door (Miramax) -- $73,925 [$704,370 cume]
36. My Best Friend (IFC Films) -- $67,600 [$67,600 cume]
37. Interview (Sony Classics) -- $33,000 [$33,000 cume]
38. Shortcut to Happiness (Yari Film Group) -- $23,800 [$23,800 cume]

SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE: The numbers that I released last night for the top 14 grossing films stand. Scroll down for details about Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.), Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount), Ratatouille (Buena Vista) and the rest. In this update, I'll be breaking down the Per-Theatre Average (PTA) with both Friday and three-Day PTA Estimates.

Harry Potter should coast to an easy opening weekend PTA win with just over $6,000 Friday and an expected $18,600 or so for the full three-day weekend, but three specialty films have made strong debuts, and another arthouse-style release has held up particularly well on expansion.

IFC's My Best Friend, a French film from BAFTA and Cesar-winning director Patrice Leconte and starring the always-good Daniel Auteuil, began its run at three locations Friday, and it delivered a sterling $4,119 per. It should finish the weekend with a strong $13,200 PTA for an excellent second-place finish. Talk to Me (Focus), a biopic on the life of Washington, D.C., radio personality Petey Greene starring Don Cheadle, rode strong reviews to a $3,700-plus Friday average and a likely third-place PTA finish for the weekend with about $11,400 per. Werner Herzog's critically-acclaimed Rescue Dawn (MGM), starring Christian Bale, expanded to 38 screens and has held up exceedingly well with $2,685 for the day and an expected $8,900 for the three-day. I expect Transformers to round out the Top 5. Also of note is Interview (Sony Classics), debuting on six screens, to about $1,856 PTA. Steve Buscemi has written, directed and stars in this film, along with Sienna Miller, and it should top $6,000 per for the weekend.

There were three other specialty titles that appear to be casualties upon expansion. Introducing the Dwights (Warner Independent), starring Oscar nominee Brenda Blethyn, widened to 35 locations, and it will struggle to reach $2,500 per for the weekend. You Kill Me (IFC Films), featuring Ben Kingsley, expanded to 248 locations, but will only muster $2,400 per or so for the three-day. Meanwhile, Sundance winner Joshua (Fox Searchlight), starring Sam Rockwell and Vera Farmiga, is a dud with a PTA of less than $500 on Friday and a meager $1,700 for the three-day frame.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- 4,285 locations, $6,184 PTA
2. My Best Friend (IFC Films) -- 3 locations, $4,119 PTA
3. Talk to Me (Focus) -- 33 locations, $3,742 PTA
4. Rescue Dawn (MGM) -- 38 locations, $2,685 PTA
5. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- 4,050 locations, $2,592 PTA
6. Interview (Sony Classics) -- 6 locations, $1,856 PTA
7. Flying: Confessions of a Free Woman (Artistic License) -- 1 location, $1,637 PTA
8. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- 3,625 locations, $1,517 PTA
9. Lady Chatterley (Kino) -- 4 locations, $1,224 PTA
10. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- 3,201 locations, $937 PTA
* Introducing the Dwights (Warner Independent) -- 35 locations, $710 PTA
* You Kill Me (IFC Films) -- 248 locations, $695 PTA
* Joshua (Fox Searchlight) -- 151 locations, $450 PTA

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- 4,285 locations, $18,669  PTA
2. My Best Friend (IFC Films) -- 3 locations, $13,219 PTA
3. Talk to Me (Focus) -- 33 locations, $11,467 PTA
4. Rescue Dawn (MGM) -- 38 locations, $8,940 PTA
5. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- 4,050 locations, $8,395 PTA
6. Interview (Sony Classics) -- 6 locations, $6,091 PTA
7. Flying: Confessions of a Free Woman (Artistic License) -- 1 location, $5,287 PTA
8. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- 3,625 locations, $4,744 PTA
9. Lady Chatterley (Kino) -- 4 locations, $3,844 PTA
10. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- 3,201 locations, $3,014 PTA
* Introducing the Dwights (Warner Independent) -- 35 locations, $2,535 PTA
* You Kill Me (IFC Films) -- 248 locations, $2,423 PTA
* Joshua (Fox Searchlight) -- 151 locations, $1,705 PTA

FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE: Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) continued its strong run at the box office on Friday grabbing an estimated $26.5 million, bringing its three-day cume to just shy of $90 million. That should put HP5 right at $80 million for the traditional Friday-Sunday three-day weekend, and it will give Order of the Phoenix the biggest five-day opening in the history of the franchise.

Opening 5-Day Grosses for Harry Potter Films
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (2007) -- $142.6 million (projected)
2. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005) -- $119.7 million [$290 million cume]
3. Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004) -- $109.3 million [$249.5 million cume]
4. Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001) -- $104.5 millionM [$317.5 million cume]
5. Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002) -- $98.4 million [$261.9 million cume]

The second weekend of Michael Bay's megahit Transformers domestic, and my studio sources are pointing to a $34 (Dreamworks/Paramount) is starting off with a solid $10.5 million estimate for Friday. Early on Saturday, Optimus Prime will fly past $200 million million weekend, down just 52 percent from the film's opening three-day. Remy and company has added another $5.5 million Friday as Pixar's Ratatouille tops the $130 million mark. I'm expecting a weekend take of $17.2 million for the critically-acclaimed animated film distributed by Disney, down only 41 percent. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) looks to be just under $3 million to start the weekend, and, by Monday, the latest John McClane action pic will have banked a $9.65 million three-day and climbed past the $100 million threshold. The Warner Bros. misfire License to Wed added just $2.2 million on Friday, and it will struggle to only $6.9 million on its second weekend.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $26.5 million [$89.1 million cume]
2. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $10.5 million [$197.5 million cume]
3. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $5.5 million [$130.4 million cume]
4. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $2.98 million [$95 million cume]
5. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $2.2 million [$25.2 million cume]
6. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $1.59 million [$84.4 million cume]
7. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $1.55 million [$58.7 million cume]
8. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $1.1 million [$135.6 million cume]
9. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $648,000 [$13.8 million cume]
10. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $538,000 [$111 million cume]
11. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $458,200 [$126 million cume]
12. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) -- $405,000 [$303.4 million cume]
13. Captivity (After Dark) -- $400,000 [$400,000 cume]
14. Evening (Focus) -- $327,000 [$10 million cume]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $80 million [$142.6 million cume]
2. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $34 million, down 52 percent [$220.9 million cume]
3. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $17.2 million, down 41 percent [$142.1 million cume]
4. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $9.65 million, down 45 percent [$101.6 million cume]
5. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $6.9 million, down 34 percent [$29.9 million cume]
6. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $4.86 million [$87.7 million cume]
7. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $4.65 million [$61.8 million cume]
8. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $3.49 million [$137.9 million cume]
9. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $2.2 million [$15.4 million cume]
10. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $1.75 million [$112.2 million cume]
11. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $1.47 million [$127 million cume]
12. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista) -- $1.3 million [$304.4 million cume]
13. Captivity (After Dark) -- $1.05 million [$1.05 million cume]
14. Evening (Focus) -- $1 million [$10.6 million cume]