After averaging 13.4 million viewers per episode back in Season 1, the TV series on Fox declined to an average of 9.2 million viewers per episode in its 2004-2005 season. That made it the 50th-best rated TV program out of 156 total shows. In the just completed 2006-2007 television season, The Simpsons finished No. 60 according to Nielsen (out of 142 shows). That's an average of just 8.6 million viewers per episode. Although this long-running show remains a staple on Fox, it is certainly well-past its prime.

A few years back, Groening talked about turning The Simpsons into a musical film. He wanted to do a send-up of Fantasia and call it Simpson-tasia. That's something you can't see every day for free on Fox and in syndication. Another way to create a "$10 experience" would have been to ramp up the language. Homer dropping "F-bombs" would have generated an R-rating, but The Simpsons Movie stayed with family-friendly content and a PG-13 rating. Obviously, hardcore fans of the series will show up this weekend, but how many casual and former fans will buy a ticket?

Congratulations to Fox for pulling out every trick in the book to market this movie, from the official Springfield contest to the transformation of selected 7-11 stores to Kwik-E-Marts. Thanks to all of that clever "elbow grease," The Simpsons Movie has a Total Aware of 87 percent according to industry tracking. That's considerably better than 2007 animated films like Meet the Robinsons (75 percent) and Surf's Up (58 percent), but a notch below the major summer tentpole movies like Spider-Man 3 (98 percent), Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (99 percent) and even Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (92 percent).

Unaided Awareness, the industry tracking measure of buzz and anticipation, is running at 12 percent, a rather unspectacular number. For comparison, Fantastic Four 2 went off with 15 percent in that column, SM3 opened at 41 percent and Pirates: AWE at 49 percent. Probably the best film to use as a gauge to how big The Simpsons Movie will open is Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount).

Unaided Awareness
Shrek the Third: 37 percent
The Simpsons Movie: 12 percent

Total Aware
Shrek the Third: 99 percent
The Simpsons Movie: 87 percent

Definite Interest
Shrek the Third: 62 percent
The Simpsons Movie: 47 percent

First Choice
Shrek the Third: 50 percent
(Males Under 25, 41 percent; Males 25 Plus, 40 percent; Females Under 25, 61 percent; Females 25 Plus, 56 percent)
The Simpsons Movie: 20 percent
(Males Under 25, 34 percent; Males 25 Plus, 21 percent; Females Under 25, 14 percent; Females 25 Plus, 13 percent)

SK3 opened with over $121 million on its opening weekend. Based on its tracking, I'm targeting The Simpsons Movie at $57 million-$60 million this weekend, which is considerably higher than the tracking services are calling for. I'm told that NRG is calling for $40 million, MarketCast is calling for $40 million and OTX forecasts $38 million. I say The Simpsons Movie opens with $20 million-plus today, but it will be fairly frontloaded.

We really haven't had  a Devil Wears Prada-style "chick-flick" breakout this summer, but you can certainly argue that Hairspray (New Line), which opened to just over $27 million last weekend, might fit the bill. America's multiplexes will get even more female-friendly this week with No Reservations (Warner Bros.), starring Oscar winner Catherine Zeta-Jones, Aaron Eckhart (Erin Brockovich) and Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine).

The reviews aren't great for this romantic comedy, but they aren't exactly horrible either. Currently at Rotten Tomatoes, No Reservations has a rating of 44 percent Fresh. I was encouraged by the reaction to last weekend's sneak (I'm showing the film at my Cinemas Palme d’Or in Rancho Mirage/Palm Desert, Calif., and last Saturday's preview was a sellout).

Zeta-Jones definitely has box office appeal. Here are the Top 10 openings in her film career.

TOP 10 CATHERINE ZETA-JONES OPENINGS
1. Ocean's Twelve: $39.1 million
2. The Haunting: $33.4 million
3. America's Sweethearts: $30.1 million
4. The Mask of Zorro: $22.5 million
5. Entrapment: $20.1 million
6. The Terminal: $19 million
7. The Legend of Zorro: $16.3 million
8. Intolerable Cruelty: $12.5 million
9. Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas: $6.8 million
10. High Fidelity: $6.4 million

That doesn't include her phenomenal performance in Chicago and her supporting turn in Traffic, which, after  limited release openings, went on to total domestic grosses, respectively, of $170.6 million and $124.1 million. Also, Aaron Eckhart, though not a box-office sensation, is beginning to build an impressive resume:

Top 10 AARON ECKHART OPENINGS
1. Erin Brockovich: $28.1 million
2. Any Given Sunday: $13.5 million
3. Paycheck: $13.4 million
4. The Core: $12 million
5. The Missing: $10.8 million
6. The Black Dahlia: $10 million
7. Nurse Betty: $7.1 million
8. The Pledge: $5.7 million
9. Suspect Zero: $3.4 million
10. Possession: $1.5 million

He brings both female appeal and indie film cachet to No Reservations, which is, by the way, an adaptation of a very good foreign film called Mostly Martha. The Warner Bros. February romantic comedy Music & Lyrics is a pretty solid comparable to predict the opening weekend performance of No Reservations:

Unaided Awareness
Music & Lyrics: 6 percent
No Reservations: 1 percent

Total Aware
Music & Lyrics: 73 percent
No Reservations: 61 percent

Definite Interest
Music & Lyrics: 30 percent
No Reservations: 24 percent

First Choice
Music & Lyrics: 11 percent
(Males Under 25, 2 percent; Males 25 Plus, 7 percent; Females Under 25, 12 percent; Females 25 Plus, 24 percent)
No Reservations: 20 percent
(Males Under 25, 1 percent; Males 25 Plus, 3 percent; Females Under 25, 5 percent; Females 25 Plus, 13 percent)

Music & Lyrics opened on a Wednesday leading into a long weekend and delivered a six-day take of $21.4 million and a traditional three-day weekend of $13.6million. That leads me to the conclusion that No Reservations will score something in the $11 million-$14 million range on its opening three-day weekend.

There are two other wide releases hitting the marketplace today, but neither of them have much upside. Sony's I Know Who Killed Me did not screen for critics, but I love the one review that has shown up on Rotten Tomatoes. Dan Lybarger from EfilmCritic.com writes: "There is no way that Lohan was in her right mind when she signed the contract for this one."

Prior to Lohan's well-publicized DUI incident, this movie was absolutely nowhere in industry tracking with a Total Aware of just 45 percent, Definite Interest of just 19 percent and a First Choice of 3 percent. The troubled young star is apparently still a draw with Females Under 25, with pre-DUI Awareness of 57 percent, 32 percent Definite Interest and 6 percent First Choice in that demo. I've written, and still believe, that all of the attention on TMZ, cable news and tabloid TV has actually created some interest in this otherwise dreadful film. Trouble for Lohan means that a few more tickets will be sold. Still, I only expect $3 million-$5 million in opening weekend box office.

Finally, there's the urban comedy Who's Your Caddy (MGM/Weinstein), which is opening on just over 1,000 screens. It's tracking at a 44 percent Total Aware, but it is much stronger with Males Under 25 at 64 percent. Still, Definite Interest is at just 2 percent (5 percent with Males Under 25), so it's hard to imagine more than $4 million-$5 million.

Here are my predictions for this weekend (July 27-29):
1. The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) -- $60 million
2. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $19.5 million
3. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) -- $17.45 million
4. Hairspray (New Line) -- $16.3 million
5. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $11.3 million
6. No Reservations (Warner Bros.) -- $12.5 million
7. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $6.5 million
8. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $4.6 million
9. Who's Your Caddy? (MGM/Weinstein) -- $4.3 million
10. I Know Who Killed Me (Sony) -- $4 million