Earlier this year, Lohan starred in the Universal bomb Georgia Rule, and during release week, video surfaced on the web of the troubled star doing lines of coke. Now, she gets a DUI in the few days prior to the release of her Sony thriller I Know Who Killed Me, set for release on Friday. According to industry tracking done prior to the DUI arrest, I Know Who Killed Me had a Total Aware of just 45 percent. Lohan's arrest, and the ensuing media onslaught, will almost certainly drive that number up. It's very possible that the picture will do better than it would have had she been trouble-free this week.

Definite Interest has been running at just 19 percent for I Know Who Killed Me percent (Males Under 25, 11; Males 25 Plus, 13 percent; Females Under 25, 32 percent; Females 25 Plus, 15 percent), weakest of the 4 new releases set for Friday. That's compared to 47 percent for The Simpsons Movie (Fox), 24 percent for Warner Bros. romantic comedy No Reservations, and 21 percent for urban comedy Who’s Your Caddy? (MGM/Weinstein). Without the DUI, Lohan's new movie was probably doomed to an opening weekend of $2 million-$4 million. Now that she's the resumed her well-accustomed role as Hollywood's most screwed-up young star, I'll raise that target to $4 million-$7 million. Still not great, but better than if she would have emerged from rehab as a changed person.

El Cantante es mal
I haven't yet seen El Cantante (Picturehouse), the biopic about Puerto Rican salsa star Hector Lavoe, but I've heard from multiple sources that the movie is just awful. The film is produced by Jennifer Lopez and co-stars Lopez and current husband Marc Anthony. Given that the last time J-Lo teamed with a significant other on a movie, Gigli was birthed, this likely flop should have been easy to see coming. It's not surprising that the trades have weighed in with early negative reviews. Kirk Honeycutt from the Hollywood Reporter praises the music, but complains about the depressing nature of the man behind it:

"Unfortunately, the music is as irresistible as the tired story of a musician succumbing to substance abuse is resistible. What can you do with a character whose own wife admits that the greater he becomes as an artist, the deeper he sinks as a human being."

Robert Koehler from Variety is far less kind:

"For El Cantante, someone left the salsa out on the counter too long. A virtual template of every imaginable cliché of the musical biopic, pic suffers from a lack of narrative and character focus, partly stemming from the need for producer-star Jennifer Lopez to have a co-leading part with substantial playing time alongside Marc Anthony, who portrays famed drug addled salsa star Hector Lavoe."

The bottom line is that it would be smart to steer clear of El Cantante in both Fantasy Moguls formats.

A midsummer French PTA dream
Moliere (Sony Classics) debuts this Friday (July 27) in New York and L.A., and it has the look of an art film that could dominate in per-theater average for a few weeks. This French-language film promises to do for Moliere what Shakespeare in Love did for the great British playwright. Here's a link to the trailer. Director Laurent Tirard has put together an extraordinary cast including Romain Duris (The Beat My Heart Skipped) and Ludivine Sagnier (The Swimming Pool), and early reviews are coming in very positive. This period movie has an 88 percent Fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of last check. If you own or acquire Moliere for your Ultimate Moguls slate, you can safely plan on a 7.0 IMDb user rating, $3 million-$5 million domestic and 7-9 PTA points.

Paramount's word-of-mouth screenings of Stardust generating real buzz
Aside from The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) and Superbad (Sony), August doesn't really offer any "sure things" for Fantasy Moguls players, but I've been very high on Stardust (Paramount) for a while now. Back in May, I heard from a studio insider that the picture plays like The Princess Bride, which is among the quirkiest, sweetest films ever made. Matthew Vaughn (Layer Cake) is the director, and, for my money, the movie has a fantastic trailer. Rising British actor Charlie Cox (Casanova) is the lead, and the cast includes Claire Danes, Robert DeNiro, Sienna Miler, Michelle Pfeiffer, Peter O'Toole, Ian McKellan, Rupert Everett and Ricky Gervais. Paramount is doing Stardust word-of-mouth screenings all over the country, and the film is beginning to generate some very positive buzz.

A couple of posters on Ain't It Cool News have written glowing reviews for this offbeat fantasy film. A poster known as MrFantomHawk says:

"I was completely satisfied with this movie, and, as far as I could tell, so was everyone else in the theatre. People laughed, applauded, awed and cheered at all the appropriate moments. I highly recommend this movie."

Meanwhile, AICN poster QuestionMark writes:

"As one of those rare movies that has just about everything, Stardust deserves to be a big hit. I suspect it will end up being a timeless ‘comfort’ film for many, much like The Princess Bride. It is the best post-Lord of the Rings fantasy film I have seen. Highly recommended."

Both posters report that DeNiro, who plays a pirate named Captain Shakespeare, steals the movie. I hear that he's very funny as a "swishy" pirate a la Captain Jack Sparrow. My thinking on Stardust is now $60 million-$65 million domestic, IMDb user rating of 6.7, 6 top 5 points and 2 PTA points. If you're preparing for the August-October Fantasy Moguls flight, this film is a great grab for either version of the game.

Weinsteins move Nanny Diaries ... Again
If you've been playing Fantasy Moguls for any length of time, you have probably cursed Harvey Weinstein. If the Weinstein Company is distributing a film, it will almost always shuffle through a number of release dates and release plans before hitting the marketplace. This isn't new. When the Weinsteins were heading Miramax, they ran the same drill, but, since breaking away from Disney, it's gotten ridiculous. Even comical. When The Nanny Diaries (MGM/Weinstein) was on the release schedule for May, I was high on it. Then it got shifted to September, and now Harvey as moved it again. My friend Lou Lumenick from the New York Post spoke with Harvey, and interprets the latest move, to Aug. 24, as a bad sign. I'm not so sure.

This picture stars Scarlett Johansson and Laura Linney, and it's based on the runaway bestseller of the same name by Emma McLaughlin and Nicola Kraus. You can check out the trailer for The Nanny Diaries and watch some scenes from the movie. It really has no competition for female audiences on its opening weekend. I’m think it can win the 8/24 weekend, and I'm looking for $35 million-plus for its total domestic cume, a 6.0-plus IMDb user rating, 6 Top 5 points and 2 PTA points.