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July 10, 2007

MOVIE MARKET: An early projection for 'The Simpsons Movie'; If you 'Lust' PTA points, don't overlook Ang; Oscar buzz for Aug.-Oct. releases; Plus, global warming may have another hit on its hands

by Steve Mason

The Full Monty for Bart Simpson
In less than three weeks, The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) will make its debut. There is little question that Homer Simpson will be the star of a $100 million blockbuster, but how high will this movie go? It's very tough to say.

We've had some vague indications about the plot of the movie. I'm hearing that there is an environmental crisis in Springfield, and, somehow, Homer is contributing to it at the same time that Lisa begins dating an environmental activist. Also, Albert Brooks, who has voiced a number of characters on the series, will play a character who is bent on world domination. Take all of this with the proverbial "grain of salt," because  producer James L. Brooks has been quoted as saying, "We're going to put some fake plots out there just to make it interesting."

Matt Groening and his team also made their film deal with Fox with an unusual clause. If, at any point, they were not satisfied with the film project, they had the right to pull the plug. That never happened and writer/producer Al Jean told Newsweek that "this movie has been rewritten more heavily than any human document." The Simpsons Movie team has continued to play with and tweak the movie deep into this year, and Brooks claims that when they saw one of the early trailers for the movie, they realized that 70 percent of the content was no longer in the film (or, as some have hypothesized, 70 percent of the content had been faked specifically for the trailer).

One wrinkle that we have known about for some time is that Bart Simpson goes au naturel during a freewheeling skateboard ride through Springfield. Peter Sciretta from SlashFilm.com reports that Bart flashes full frontal nudity in The Simpsons Movie, and Groening fully expects lots of complaints.

The Fox marketing folks are working cleverly to promote this highly-anticipated pic. A handful of 7-Eleven stores have been converted to "Kwik-E-Marts," and they're selling "Squishees" (Slurpees in collector's cups), "Buzz Cola,"  "Krusty-Os" and "Pink Movie Donuts." There's also been a contest among 14 cities in the United States named Springfield to host the American premiere of the film. Even Senator Ted Kennedy, lampooned (along with his late brothers) on the series by the character of Joe Quimby, the skirt-chasing mayor of Springfield who speaks with a Boston accent and vacations at a coastal resort called Quimby Compound, appears in the video created by Springfield, Mass., in an effort to sway Fox. In the end, Teddy wasn't enough to put them over the top. Springfield, Vt., has just been named the winner.

When a TV series has been on the air for 400 episodes over 18 seasons, can these writers, brilliant as they are, come up with a feature film that will convince casual fans of the show to plunk down $9 or $10 and then walk away feeling satisfied? It worked for South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut, which was a work of true genius, but Parker and Stone turned their Comedy Central series into a full-scale, completely outrageous Broadway-style musical. Groening and team are essentially "super-sizing" an episode of the show to 87 minutes, and they're maintaining a PG-13 rating. Guess we won't hear Homer dropping F-bombs.

The 1999 South Park movie got to $52 million domestic, but that was with a very strong R-rating and positively incendiary content. With The Simpsons Movie's more audience-friendly rating, a huge fan base and some terrific marketing tricks, as of today, $35 million is very possible on opening weekend. Without having seen the movie, predicting past that is a crapshoot, but a 3.2 multiple is possible, which would put The Simpsons Movie's final gross at $112 million domestic. That's my early read on Homer, Bart and the gang.

Ang Lee is an Academy Award winner and a PTA juggernaut
Ang Lee is a beloved director worldwide, and he was finally given an Academy Award for 2005's Brokeback Mountain. The Heath Ledger-Jake Gyllenhaal cowboy love story generated $83 million domestic for Focus Features, which is a nice number in one of our Box Office Moguls  leagues. If you had owned it in an Ultimate Movie Moguls league, however, it would have grabbed 18 PTA points for you. Brokeback was the PTA winner on three weekends, four times it was No. 2, it was third once and second on another weekend. That's one way to absolutely dominate the PTA category.

It wasn't the first time that Lee directed a film with an incredible PTA performance. Back in 2000, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon would have gotten you $128 million domestic in a basic Box Office league, but in Ultimate leagues, it would have racked up an astounding 36 PTA points. If you're playing Ultimate Movie Moguls, the make a mental note of Sept. 28, the release date of Lee's next movie Lust, Caution (Focus). At least one prominent blogger, Jeff Wells from Hollywood Elsewhere, is unimpressed with the premise. The movie is set in 1940s Shanghai, and it's about a young woman who must pretend to be in love with a powerful man to get information, or possibly to arrange to have him killed. Of course, she ends up actually falling in love with him.

I agree with Jeff that this is fairly standard stuff, but, in the hands of Ang Lee, cinematic magic is certainly possible. You can check out the stylish trailer for Lust, Caution on what I think might be the Asian answer to YouTube.

Oscar buzz in July? It’s never too early to speculate.
Variety has identified the 45 or so movies currently on the release schedule that have a shot at receiving Oscar attention at the end of the year. That's a huge number, and, keep in mind, most of these movies haven't even been seen by critics or real audiences yet. Most of them are on the list because of pedigree: a great director, excellent source material, previously nominated actors, etc. The truth is that nobody knows anything about the vast majority of these movies yet. Awards season is important for Fantasy Moguls players, especially players in Ultimate Movie Moguls leagues, which use the IMDb user rating and PTA as competitive categories. Here is my own personal reconnaissance on films that will be available in the August-October (Season 4) game that begins Aug. 1.

Picturehouse has one excellent title and one movie that could go either way in August. Rocket Science was a Grand Jury nominee at Sundance, and director Jeffrey Blitz won the festival's Best Director honors. The movie will get a platform release, which will likely yield some PTA points.  Meanwhile, Jennifer Lopez has produced and stars in El Cantante, which also features her husband, Marc Antony. This is a musical biopic about salsa singer Hector Lavoe (Antony). Boxoffice Magazine has already weighed in with a lukewarm-to-positive review, but Picturehouse will probably go with 1,300 or so prints, so it's not a sure thing in the PTA category.

September brings the previously-mentioned Lust, Caution, along with number of other likely awards contenders. The Brave One (Warner Bros.) is a wide release from director Neil Jordan (The Crying Game) and stars Oscar winner Jodie Foster and Oscar nominee Terrence Howard. It's got a great trailer, and Naveen Andrews from Lost has what could be a breakout role. I'm also high on September releases The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) -- because anything with the Austen name has a shot at major awards -- and In the Valley of Elah, directed by Paul Haggis (Crash), from Warner Independent.

Then comes Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Universal) in October. Cate Blanchett reprises the role that should have won her Best Actress in 1998. (Gwyneth Paltrow in Shakespeare in Love? Come on.) I'd be dead cold shocked if Cate wasn't at least a nominee, and Golden Age has chance to generate steady box office and some healthy PTA into December. Also, I love the prospects of Things We Lost In the Fire (Paramount/Dreamworks), starring Academy Award winners Halle Berry and Benicio del Toro; Margot at the Wedding (Paramount Vantage), Noah Baumbach’s follow-up to The Squid & the Whale starring Nicole Kidman; and George Clooney in Michael Clayton from Warner Bros.

Wanna "friend" Leo?
Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth only generated $24.1 million domestic, but it would still have been incredibly valuable to Moguls gamers because of its PTA performance. The global warming doc never finished in the Top 5, but it delivered a $91,800 PTA on its opening weekend, $17,600 on weekend No. 2 and $12,300 in its third frame -- that's 14 PTA points right there. Can Leonardo DiCaprio's The 11th Hour (Warner Independent) pull off a similar trick? After Truth and the Live Earth concerts, it could be tougher for Leo's doc to get traction -- everyone's heard the message already, or thinks they have. By all accounts, however, Leo's is a darker and more extreme view, which might help it cut through. WIP will go with a handful of locations on opening weekend (Aug. 17), and then expand slowly, so look for 9-12 PTA points if you're playing Ultimate Movie Moguls. You can watch the trailer for The 11th Hour on Leo's MySpace page, and while you're there, you can send him a "friend" request.

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Posted at 11:02 PM in Advice and Analysis, Movie Market, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent | Permalink

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Comments

Ian

I think Simpsons will have good legs partly bacause I think the repeat business will be staggering. I already have plans to see it at least twice.

Posted by: Ian | July 11, 2007 at 06:18 AM

Kit Sung

Why do you project the Simpsons-movie to gross so little? Isn't it one of the best known brands in the world that attracts people of all ages and genders? I dont know how many people watch the show in America but awareness for the Simpsons must be skyhigh, so isn't 112 miilion extremely little?

Posted by: Kit Sung | July 11, 2007 at 11:46 AM

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Posted by: video | July 11, 2007 at 02:40 PM

jackinthebox

$112 million sounds staggeringly low to me -- I had to double-check to make sure it wasn't your opening weekend estimate! I think you're underestimating the massive Simpsons fan base.

Posted by: jackinthebox | July 12, 2007 at 06:46 AM

jay f k

Sound about right to me although the multiplier seems to high for a cartoon still running on tv. Typically tv shows that are on the air recently are very frontloaded so I expect Simpsons to be the same

And I dont think the numbers are too low considering the Simpsons dont even rank in the top 25 of tv shows this year

Posted by: jay f k | July 13, 2007 at 01:20 PM

Matthew Martin

The Simpsons Movie will make less than $100 million. Six other films open against it and eight others the week after. Adding to the fanboy effect, possible bad word-of-mouth and the fact that few understand why the show's still on the air will hurt it.

Opening Weekend:
$42,000,000
Second Weekend:
$14,500,000
Final:
$89,000,000

Posted by: Matthew Martin | July 14, 2007 at 04:48 AM

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