THE SCORECARD: Average of 9 "Expert" Sources calls for another 'Harry Potter' win; Average prediction for 'Chuck & Larry' is $34.82M; 'Hairspray' at $20.31M
by Steve Mason
Each week, we round up the weekend box-office predictions of the so-called experts, including yours truly. The old show business adage "Nobody knows anything" is in full effect because, even by studying and poring over the tracking, the release plan, the screen counts and the reviews, and even after seeing the films, the movie-going public is still too fickle and unpredictable for this to be a science rather than an art. Hopefully, this weekly feature will keep me -- and the rest of the box office "authorities" -- humble and be instructive for Fantasy Moguls players.
Please note: Predictions are different from projections. Predictions are based on hunches. Projections are based on actual box office numbers. The numbers that I go online with every Friday night are the earliest Friday and 3-Day projections available anywhere, and, as proven virtually every week, they are incredibly accurate. (Steve Mason is taking a break this weekend, July 20-22. His weekend box-office reporting will return next week.)
This week, we're posting the predictions of eight "experts" plus the Box Office Mojo Derby Averages (there was no prediction again this week for Brandon Gray from Box Office Mojo). Seven of the nine "expert" sources are calling for a second weekend crown for Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.), while Box Office Guru's Gitesh Pandya and Joshua Rich at Entertainment Weekly are predicting an upset for Universal's I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry. The "expert" averages are Order of the Phoenix at $37.78 million and Chuck & Larry at $34.82 million. The range for Hairspray is, not surprisingly, pretty wide, but the average calls for a fourth place finish with $20.31 million.
Here are the weekend box office predictions of each "expert" source followed by the "expert" prediction averages for the weekend:
Steve Mason, FantasyMoguls.com
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $40 million
2. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) -- $35.7 million
3. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $22.5 million
4. Hairspray (New Line) -- $21.75 million
5. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $11 million
6. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $7.1 million
7. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $4.1 million
8. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $3.5 million
9. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $2.9 million
10. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $2.8 million
Gitesh Pandya, Box Office Guru
1. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) -- $37 million
2. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $35 million
3. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $20 million
4. Hairspray (New Line) -- $19 million
5. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $12 million
Box Office Report
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $38 million
2. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) -- $36 million
4. Hairspray (New Line) -- $23 million
3. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $22 million
5. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $12 million
6. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $7 million
7. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $4.8 million
8. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $3.2 million
9. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $2.8 million
10. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $2.5 million
Box Office Mojo Derby Averages
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $39.2 million
2. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) -- $33.1 million
3. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $21.4 million
4. Hairspray (New Line) -- $21 million
5. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $13 million
6. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $7.6 million
7. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $4.9 million
8. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $3.5 million
9. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $3 million
10. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $2.7 million
World of KJ
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $36 million
2. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) -- $34 million
3. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $24 million
3. Hairspray (New Line) -- $24 million
5. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $13.5 million
6. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $7.4 million
7. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $5 million
8. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $3 million
9. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $2.7 million
10. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $2.6 million
Reagen Sulewski, Box Office Prophets
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $43.7 million
2. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) -- $32.4 million
3. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $18.2 million
4. Hairspray (New Line) -- $13.8 million
5. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $11.7 million
6. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $6.6 million
7. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $4.3 million
8. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $2.9 million
9. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $2.3 million
10. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $2.2 million
Edward Douglas, Coming Soon Weekend Warrior
1. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) -- $37.2 million
2. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $36.2 million
3. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $20 million
4. Hairspray (New Line) -- $18.8 million
5. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $11.6 million
6. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $6.8 million
7. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $4.7 million
8. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $2.8 million
9. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $2.5 million
10. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $2.4 million
Joshua Rich, Entertainment Weekly
1. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) -- $38 million
2. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $36 million
3. Hairspray (New Line) -- $22 million
4. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $20 million
5. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $13 million
Box Office Psychics
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $36 million
2. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) -- $30 million
3. Hairspray (New Line) -- $19.5 million
4. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $19 million
5. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $11 million
6. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $5.5 million
7. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $4.5 million
8. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $3 million
9. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $2 million
9. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $2 million
BOX OFFICE EXPERT PREDICTION AVERAGES
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $37.78 million
2. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) -- $34.82 million
3. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $20.78 million
4. Hairspray (New Line) -- $20.31 million
5. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $12.08 million
6. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $6.85 million
7. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $4.61 million
8. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $3.12 million
9. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $2.63 million
10. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $2.48 million
Back again Mase, don't know why you call yourself that, anyway, here are my more accurate predictions, hunches if you will, Harry calls for 38 mil, i have no idea about I Now Pronounce, but by judging Kevin James' success with King of Queens, and lots of Sandler fans,(I personally loved Billy Madison and Happy Gilmore, the rest are so-so to bad) I think that it will get around 34 mil. Transformers will fall in third with about 21.5 - 22 mil, and Hairspray (which looks like a terrible movie) will get around 19 or 20 mil hopefully less. Ratatouille will get 11. 5 mil, Live Free wil get 6.8 - 7 mil. P.S. The please note you added was the smuggiest thing I have ever read in my entire life.
Posted by: Broekelschen | July 21, 2007 at 02:19 AM
Don't you have anything better to do than to sit at the computer with your panties in a wad? If you are so fantastical, why don't you just predict the powerball numbers? Then you could buy this website out and show us all how amazing you are.
Posted by: stuckathomeguy | July 22, 2007 at 07:25 AM
Broekelschen....wow, you're predictions were amazingly close to the expert averages. That's some impressively lame prognosticating.
Posted by: James | July 22, 2007 at 11:50 AM
Where to begin, first of all stuck at home guy makes you look like the biggest loser ever, second, predicting what you think movies will get and what powerball numbers will be picked are two completely different things, powerball numbers are completely random, and it's just luck if you get it right, while predicting how much movies will get over the weekend has some information to go off of, like what it got last week, what movies came out this week,etc. And James, your a new low when it comes to stupid things people say. No crap my predictions will be close to what 9 other people say, and believe it or not, I didn't look at the "expert" prediction averages until after I posted my first post. And when a movie like Live Free goes down to around 7 mil, everyone is going to have practically the same prediction you moron.
Posted by: Broekelschen | July 22, 2007 at 12:23 PM
I may indeed be the biggest loser ever, but I at least know what a run on sentence is *and* when to shut my mouth before digesting my own foot.
Either make your own website with the most accurate movie dollar predictions ever, or quit complaining.
Posted by: stuckathomeguy | July 22, 2007 at 06:06 PM
Broekelschen...you criticize Mase (short for Mason, you dumbass) and then make predictions that are right in line with his. You were way off on Hairspray and Happry Potter just like he was. Your posts are waaaaaay smuggier than anything Mason has ever posted.
Posted by: James | July 22, 2007 at 07:40 PM
Make that Harry Potter. Thought I'd beat you to the punch.
Posted by: James | July 22, 2007 at 07:42 PM
I know that Mase is short for Mason, what I meant was that I don't know why he calls himself that stupid nickname, but I can see where you got confused because you're so fucking stupid. And for the record my predictions were still better than Masons'. What I usually do is make my own predictions then compare them to Mason's and adjust mine between his and that's why I was so off. I was originally going to put 35 mil for Harry, and 20 mil for transformers, but Mase was so wrong that I was off bigtime. And the reason I put 20 mil for hairspray was because I think it's going to be a terrible movie, and I put what I wanted it to get, instead of what it was probably going to get. Do you even know what smug means? Steve always boasts about how accurate and early his projections are, as you can see in his please note, when he is way off every week and he hasn't posted a thing in 3 days. Smug means when your good at something or did something good and you rub it in continuously. But even worse, Steve isn't good at predictions or projections, yet he lies about it in practicallly every post. He is a lieing, full of himslef smug bastard. P.S. Since you are protecting MAse, that makes you as bad as he is.
Posted by: Broekelschen | July 23, 2007 at 03:07 AM
while i don't want to get involved, his projections ARE accurate. It's his predictions (i.e. those based on a hunch) that are often not. But then again, who is better at predictions? It's always anyone's guess.
But as far as I can see, his projections are accurate enough. And he's usually good at posting over the weekend. This weekend is the only exception, but a guy needs a holiday every now and then, right?
Posted by: numbersix_99 | July 23, 2007 at 04:31 AM
Obviously his projections are going to be accurate. He waits till he gets friday nights numbers and gets his information from a studio. All he does is take someone elses information and then puts it on this site. It's being good at predictions that show how good you are and how much you know. Plus it's his predictions that all the movies of the summer was based on, and when I started my leagues I didn't know much about the movie industry, so I solely went off his info which kinda screwed me over. His projections are accurate later in the weekend when the movie already came out, therefore he's even more worthless than before. I also like how he tells us he took a break after the weekend.
Posted by: Broekelschen | July 23, 2007 at 11:52 AM
No one is going to accurately predict how movies will come out. Some times Mason is right, other times he is not.
Besides, isn't the point of the game to find the films that beat the predictions, the ones that you think will do better than expected?
Posted by: numbersix_99 | July 23, 2007 at 03:15 PM
>No one is going to
>accurately predict how
>movies will come out.
Why do you say that? It's not a completely random process. On the contrary, you'd be surprised what we can predict nowadays.
Posted by: alcalde | July 23, 2007 at 07:55 PM
Well, let me put it this way, you're not going to get someone is going to predict everything right. Sure, we can have assumptions based on instinct, and some tracking data, but in the long run it's impossible to predict everything correctly. I remain dubious that there's someone out there that can predict things any better than most people.
Posted by: numbersix_99 | July 24, 2007 at 01:38 AM
First, you need to add a who between someone and is. Second, when people like Mase predict things they don't just pull these numbers out of their asses, they have tracking data and Mase has been doing this for awhile. His job is to predict things he knows from experience and from movie trends. Mase should be able to predict things better than practically everyone considering it's his job and he runs the site. Not to mention he gets the inside scoop from the studio execs and makes phone calls and all that other crap he has mentioned time after time because he wants to seem so important and cool. It would make sense if Steve was kind of wrong every once in awhile, not off by many millions every single week.
Posted by: Broekelschen | July 25, 2007 at 03:22 AM
Mase was off by a whopping 8 million for Harry Potter. That's 20% off, you couldn't do much worse. He was 2 mil off for Transformers, that's 10% right there. He was also 6 mil off for Hairspray, that's close to 25%. Mase was off by 900,000 for the 2.6 mil prediction for 1408, that's an incredible 35% inaccuracy. I would not call those incredibly accurate as Steve did in his Please Not on the top. This week he did a little better than he usually does, but as you can see it wasn't very good now was it.
Posted by: Broekelschen | July 25, 2007 at 10:53 PM
I see your point, Broekelschen (and apologies for the typo, but these are the times of texting and abrvtns). But there's plenty of the so-called experts, as listed in Mase's weekly round-ups, that are off too. Yes, Mase can be wrong, real wrong, but so can the other experts.
Posted by: numbersix_99 | July 26, 2007 at 01:43 AM