• Insider Videos
    • IMDB Trailers

    • Last Weekend
    • Year-To-Date
    • Projections

    • Release Schedule
    • Projections

    • Analysis
    • Weekly Tracking
    • Reviews
    • Message Boards

    • Box Office Moguls
    • Ultimate Movie Moguls
    • Weekend Over/Under

My Studios

Featured Columnist

Indie Jones
Indie Jones is not an archaeologist and adventurer, although he would certainly love to be. He lives in Paris, a city that not only shelters rat chefs, but is reputed for offering the richest film programming on the planet. And so he goes, an avid reader and self-declared film addict, haunting theaters, searching for the next cinematic treasure, be it European, American, Asian, African, or maybe one day, who knows, extraterrestrial.
More from Indie Jones

Featured Columnist

Shrykespeare
Shrykespeare is a native Arizonan, one of the few who actually has the nerve to admit it. He is a movie, TV and sports junkie, who occasionally finds time to spend with his tolerant but exasperated wife. His talents include witty banter, golf, Scrabble, and reciting Monty Python and The Holy Grail from memory. His role models are Homer Simpson and Al Bundy, and he vows to make the world a better, lovelier, happier place as soon as those damn Powerball numbers come in.
More from Shrykespeare

Featured Columnist

Howard Roark
The person hiding behind the Howard Roark moniker is an industry veteran who will refrain from listing his credits and accomplishments as it would negate the use of the Howard Roark moniker. Just accept that he thinks he knows more than you. In the words of Kazunori Nozawa: Trust me!

More from Howard Roark

Featured Columnist

Lee Farber
Lee Farber is currently a writer for "The Soup" on the E! channel. Before that, he wrote on "The Wayne Brady Show" and won an Emmy. It's shiny and pointy and looks great when worn around the neck. He is putting together his first feature, "The Yentas of Sunrise Lakes", about old ladies in Florida, because he knows what the public wants. Lee lives in Los Angeles with his wife and his collection of bootleg CDs.

More from Lee Farber

Featured Columnist

Ronald Banks
Ronald Banks lives in the heart of Hollywood where his hobbies are going to the movies, renting movies, and buying movies on DVD. If you see him in the theater, please remember - there is no talking during the film.

More from Ronald Banks

Featured Columnist

Thomas Donnelly
Thomas Dean Donnelly is the screenwriter responsible for 2005's Sahara and A Sound of Thunder, as well as other films. There is nary a studio he hasn't worked for nor an agency he has not been represented at. In his spare time, he designs games, like the one you are playing right now.

More from Thomas Donnelly

Featured Columnist

Whiting Tattoon
Whiting has been intimately involved with no less than twelve Academy and Golden Globe nominated and/or winning films. He has worked for talent, production companies and studios, in capacities ranging from PA to editing to marketing executive to screenwriter. He is an unabashed lover of cinema, a student of the art form and prone to seizure-like moments of clarity.

More from Whiting Tattoon

Featured Columnist

Dmitry Portnoy
Dmitry Portnoy has watched more than 100 movies a year since he was three. And so have you.

More from Dmitry Portnoy

Featured Analyst

Steve Mason
Steve Mason is a Los Angeles-based talk show host for 710 ESPN Radio. He has previously hosted the nationally-syndicated "The Late, Late Radio Show with Tom Snyder & Steve Mason" for CBS Radio and worked the last five Olympic Games for NBC and Westwood One Radio Network. He is also President of Flagship Theatres which owns the University Village Theatres near downtown Los Angeles and Cinemas Palme d'Or in Palm Desert, California.

More from Steve Mason

Featured Columnist

Mike Ogle

More from Mike Ogle

Featured Columnist

Nicodemus
Noted sage and mystic Nicodemus, a reputed cyber-scavenger and data carrier, recently escaped from the National Institute of Mental Health. He spends his hours scuttling amongst the pipes running directly beneath the Information Superhighway, collecting scraps of knowledge and overlooked treasures that fall, unnoticed, through cracks and gratings from the world above. He also writes in characters of magic fire and, on occasion, he really, really likes a nice hunk of moldy cheese.

More from Nicodemus

Featured Columnist

Mister Informative
Mister Informative is a college student from Appleton, Wis. He is a staff leader/projectionist for Carmike Cinemas, a national theater chain headquartered in Columbus, Ga., and is a big fan of the new DLP digital cinema technology. He's also been an associate architect of award-winning, in-lobby promotional displays for Over the Hedge and Talladega Nights. Upon discovering Fantasy Moguls, he promptly joined a league with his co-workers -- and that's where the fun began!

More from Mr. Informative
Now Playing

Recent Posts

Shrykespeare: BARD'S EYE VIEW: Maybe Somewhere Down the Road a Ways / You'll Think of Me and Wonder Where I Am These Days - November 28

Indie Jones: DANCES WITH THE ARTHOUSE: All Good Things ... - November 28

Mister Informative: TIP OF THE WEEK: Giving Thanks for Movies and Farewell to Fantasy Moguls - November 26

Steve Mason: FINAL WEEKEND TRACKING: 'Four Christmases' Likely Winner w/$38.5M for 5-Day; 'Twilight' Next in Line w/$30.7M; 'Bolt' Potentially at No. 3, Followed by 'Transporter 3' at $26.8M and 'Australia' at $24M! - November 25

Shrykespeare: BARD'S EYE VIEW: Jumbo Jim Tangles with Big Willy on the Weekend Before Christmas - November 25

More Advice & Analysis

Archives

November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
More Archives
Subscribe:
RSS
Bloglines
Google
Yahoo
MSN

Advice & Analysis: Weekly Tracking

Advice & Analysis: Reviews

July 13, 2007

THE SCORECARD: 9 "expert" sources call for a robust $86.6M for 'Harry Potter'; 'Transformers' pegged at $35M

by Steve Mason

Each week, we round up the weekend box-office predictions of the so-called experts, including yours truly. The old show business adage "Nobody knows anything" is in full effect because, even by studying and poring over the tracking, the release plan, the screen counts and the reviews, and even after seeing the films, the movie-going public is still too fickle and unpredictable for this to be a science rather than an art.

Hopefully, this weekly feature will keep me, and the rest of the box office "authorities," humble and be instructive for Fantasy Moguls players.

Please note:  Predictions are different from projections. Predictions are based on hunches. Projections, like the ones I will go online with tonight (Friday, July 13), are based on actual box office numbers. The numbers that I go online with tonight are the earliest Friday and weekend projections available anywhere, and they are generally quite accurate.

This week, we're posting the predictions of eight "expert" sources plus the Box Office Mojo Derby Averages (No predictions this week from Lee's Movie Info or Brandon Gray from Box Office Mojo.) Everyone agrees that Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros) will easily win the weekend, but the range is pretty wide. The average of the eight sources puts HP5 at $86.6M. Here are the weekend box office predictions of each "expert" source followed by the "expert" prediction averages for the weekend:

Steve Mason, Fantasy Moguls
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $76M
2. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $34M
3. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) – $18M
4. Live Free or Die Hard (Fox) -- $9.7M
6. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $4.9M
5. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $4.7M
7. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $4.5M
8. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $3.7M
9. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $3M
10. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (Fox) - $2.4M
*Captivity (After Dark) -- $2.2M

World of KJ
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $72M
2. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $33M
3. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) – $17.5M
4. Live Free or Die Hard (Fox) -- $10M
5. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $5.8M
6. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $4.5M
7. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $4.2M
8. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $3.5M
9. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $2.5M
10. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $1.9M
*Captivity (After Dark) – $1.6M

Gitesh Pandya, Box Office Guru
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $90M
2. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $35M
3. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) – $19M
*Captivity (After Dark) – $4M

Box Office Report
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $80M
2. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $35M
3. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) – $17M
4. Live Free or Die Hard (Fox) -- $10M
5. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $6M
6. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $4.8M
7. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $4.5M
8. Captivity (After Dark) – $4M
9. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $3.5M
10. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $2.8M

Box Office Mojo Derby Averages
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $88.4M
2. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $36.9M
3. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) – $18.5M
4. Live Free or Die Hard (Fox) -- $10.6M
5. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $6.1M
6. Captivity (After Dark) – $5.7M
7. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $5.2M
8. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $4.5M
9. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $3.8M
10. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $2.9M

Reagen Sulewski, Box Office Prophets
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $96.3M
2. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $38.7M
3. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) – $18.4M
4. Live Free or Die Hard (Fox) -- $10M
5. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $5.5M
6. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $5.2M
7. Captivity (After Dark) – $4.1M
8. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $3.7M
9. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $3.1M
10. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $3M

Edward Douglas, Coming Soon Weekend Warrior
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $83.2M
2. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $37M
3. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) – $17.7M
4. Live Free or Die Hard (Fox) -- $9.3M
5. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $6M
6. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $4.7M
7. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $4.1M
8. Captivity (After Dark) – $3.1M
9. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $3.4M
10. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $2.5M

Joshua Rich, Entertainment Weekly
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $99M
2. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $36M
3. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) – $18M
4. Live Free or Die Hard (Fox) -- $9M
5. Captivity (After Dark) – $5M

Box Office Psychics
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $95M
2. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $30M
3. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) – $18M
4. Live Free or Die Hard (Fox) -- $9M
5. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $5M
6. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $4.5M
7. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $3.5M
8. Captivity (After Dark) – $2.5M
9. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $3.5M
10. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $3M
11. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (Fox) - $2.2M

Lee’s Movie Info
-    no predictions as of Friday, 7/13 at 4 p.m. PT –

BOX OFFICE "EXPERT" PREDICTION AVERAGES
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) -- $86.6M
2. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $35M
3. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) – $18M
4. Live Free or Die Hard (Fox) -- $9.7M
5. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $5.3M
6. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $4.8M
7. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $4.3M
8. Captivity (After Dark) – $3.75M
9. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $3.5M
10. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $2.7M

Share:  Newsvine Facebook Digg! del.ici.ous

Posted at 06:36 PM in Advice and Analysis, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent, Weekly Tracking | Permalink

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341bfcb653ef00e008d817018834

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference THE SCORECARD: 9 "expert" sources call for a robust $86.6M for 'Harry Potter'; 'Transformers' pegged at $35M:

Comments

Post a comment

If you have a TypeKey or TypePad account, please Sign In.

You are currently signed in as (nobody). Sign Out

© 2007 Atomic Moguls, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
About Fantasy Moguls | Contact | Support FAQ | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service