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Advice & Analysis: Weekly Tracking

Advice & Analysis: Reviews

July 06, 2007

THE SCORECARD: Average of 8 "Expert" Sources calls for $72.26M for 'Transformers,' $31.26M for 'Ratatouille' and $17.77M for 'Die Hard 4'

by Steve Mason

Each week, we round up the weekend box office predictions of the so-called experts, including yours truly. The old show business adage "Nobody knows anything" is in full effect because, even after studying and pouring over the tracking, the release plan, the screen counts and the reviews, and sometimes even after seeing the films, it's never possible to exactly predict what the fickle moviegoing public will do. Hopefully, this weekly feature will keep me, and the rest of the box office "authorities," humble and be instructive for Fantasy Moguls Players.

Please note:  Predictions are different from projections. Predictions are based on hunches. Projections, like the ones I will go online with tonight (Friday, July 6), are based on actual box-office data. The numbers that I go online with tonight are the earliest Friday and weekend projections available anywhere, and they are generally quite accurate.

This week, we're posting the predictions of seven "expert" sources plus the Box Office Mojo Derby Averages: Lee's Movie Info and Box Office Psychics hadn't posted as of 1 p.m. (Pacific) and there was no prediction again this week from Brandon Gray of Box Office Mojo. Obviously, Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) is everybody's No. 1. On the high end, Nicole Sperling from Entertainment Weekly is calling for $80 million. Edward Douglas, ComingSoon.net's Weekend Warrior, is on the low end with $62.5 million. The average of the eight "expert" sources is a staggering $72.26 million. The average of predictions for Ratatouille (Buena Vista) is an excellent $31.26 million, and the "experts" are pointing to a $17.77 million weekend for Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox).

Here are the weekend box office predictions of each "expert" source followed by the "expert" prediction averages for the weekend:

Steve Mason, FantasyMoguls.com
(With so much analysis already this week, I haven't written a Final Weekend Tracking column, but these are my predictions.)
1. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $71 million
2. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $32.9 million
3. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $17.4 million
4. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $8.5 million
5. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $8.2 million
6. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $6.1 million
7. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $4.9 million
8. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $4.8 million
9. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $4.2 million
10. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $3.2 million

Gitesh Pandya, Box Office Guru
1. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $67 million
2. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $30 million
3. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $16.5 million
4. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $11 million
5. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $8 million

Box Office Report
1. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $69 million
2. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $28 million
3. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $18 million
4. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $13 million
5. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $8 million
6. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $5.5 million
7. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $4.5 million
8. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $4.2 million
9. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $4 million
10. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $3.2 million

Box Office Mojo Derby Averages
1. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $69.8 million
2. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $30.8 million
3. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $18.7 million
4. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $13.2 million
5. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $10 million
6. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $7.7 million
8. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $6.4 million
7. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $5.4 million
9. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $4 million
10. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $3.8 million

World of KJ
1. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) --  $77 million
2. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $33 million
3. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $17.7 million
4. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $8.5 million
5. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $8.5 million
6. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $6.5 million
7. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $5.1 million
8. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $4.3 million
9. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $3.5 million
10. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $3.3 million

Reagen Sulewski, Box Office Prophets
1. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $81.8 million
2. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $33.4 million
3. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $19.7 million
4. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $8 million
5. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $7.1 million
6. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $5.3 million
7. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $5.1 million
8. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $4.6 million
9. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $4 million
10. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $3.2 million

Edward Douglas, Coming Soon Weekend Warrior
1. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $62.5 million
2. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $31 million
3. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $17.2 million
4. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $8.3 million
5. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $8 million
6. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $6 million
7. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $4.9 million
8. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $4.4 million
9. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $4.3 million
10. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $3.2 million

Nicole Sperling, Entertainment Weekly
1. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) -- $80 million
2. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) -- $31 million
3. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $17 million
4. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $15 million
5. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $8 million

Box Office Psychics
No predictions as of 1 p.m. (Pacific)

Lee's Movie Info
No predictions as of 1 p.m. (Pacific) 

Brandon Gray, Box Office Mojo
No predictions as of 1 p.m. (Pacific)

BOX OFFICE "EXPERT" PREDICTION AVERAGES
1. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount)
-- $72.26 million
2. Ratatouille (Buena Vista)
-- $31.26 million
3. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) -- $17.77 million
4. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) -- $10.61 million
5. Evan Almighty (Universal) -- $8.3 million
6. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) -- $6.18 million
7. Knocked Up (Universal) -- $4.88 million
8. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (20th Century Fox) -- $4.58 million
9. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) -- $4.3 million
10. Ocean's Thirteen (Warner Bros.) -- $3.91 million

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Posted at 01:23 PM in Advice and Analysis, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent, Weekly Tracking | Permalink

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Comments

Momo

hey dude. They did post the box office on www.boxofficepsychics.com - what are you talking about?

Posted by: Momo | July 07, 2007 at 04:51 AM

Momo

What the hell is this?

Posted by: Momo | July 07, 2007 at 04:51 AM

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